Навигация
ОбложкаAsian part of Russia: economic development modeling in the context of historical experience / editors-in-chief: Corresponding member V.A.Lamin, Doctor of Economics V.Yu.Malov; Russian Academy of Sciences Siberian Branch; Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering; Institute of History; V.B.Sochava Institute of Geography; L.A.Melentiev Energy Systems Institute; Institute for System Dynamics and Control Theory. - Novosibirsk: Publishing Hause of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (SB RAS), 2012. - 464 p. - (SB RAS Integrate Projects, N 34). → рус
Contents
PREFACE (Lamin V.A., Malov V.Yu.) ............................... 5
INTRIDUCTION ................................................... 15

                              Part 1
        NORTH-EAST VECTOR OF THE INVESTMENT IN THE FUTURE:
               MOBILIZATION WAY OF THE RUSSIAN STATE

Chapter 1  HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE OF RUSSIA'S ADVANCE TO THE
NORTH-EAST OF THE EUROASIAN CONTINENT .......................... 25
1.1  The role of non-economic factors in social and economic
     development of Russia (Tymoshenko A.I.) ................... --
1.2  Answer from historical past to "compression" theorists .... 34
1.3  Specific features of development and implementation of
     largest economic projects ................................. 40
1.4  "Mobilization" economies as an imperative in choosing
     the ways for the development of Asian Russia .............. 56

Chapter 2  SPECIFIC FEATURES OF SIBERIA'S SETTLEMENT AND MAJOR
MIGRATION FLOWS ................................................ 65
2.1  From militarized settlements to exile and penal
     settlements (Shilovsky M.V.) .............................. --
2.2  Transition to the stage of settlement of the territory
     (Shilovsky M.V.) .......................................... 74
2.3  Resettlement policy of the early 20th century: specific
     features of Russian reality (Efimkin M.M., Lamin V.A.) .... 83
2.4  Formation of industrial category of population
     (Efimkin M.M.) ............................................ 87
2.5  Turnabout: steer west (Efimkin M.M.) ...................... 96

Chapter 3  THE NORTH AND ARCTIC IN THE TIDE OF PUBLIC
REGIONAL POLICY: HISTORICAL ANALOGIES EXPERIENCE
(Alekseev S.E., Lamin V.A.) ................................... 102
3.1  Underestimated cold space ................................ ---
3.2  Protection by the American "natural rule" ................ 106
3.3  Trajectory of highest "considerations" ................... 112
3.4  Russian society is for Alaska; the American is against ... 115
3.5  Across the Arctic sky .................................... 118

Chapter 4  SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE PROCESS OF
"CONTINENINTALITY" OF RUSSIA IN THE CONTEXT OF ITS NATIONAL
AND PUBLIC INTERESTS (Bezrukov L.A.) .......................... 122
4.1  Transport-geographical continentality of Russia .......... 123
4.2  Changes in the degree of Russia's continentality in the
     20th century ............................................. 126
4.3  Pluses and minuses of Russia's continentality in
     history .................................................. 132

Chapter 5  IMPACT OF SIBERIA'S INLAND MACRO LOCATION ON ITS
ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY (Bezrukov L.A.) ........................... 136
5.1  Evaluation of the degree of Siberia's transport-
     geographical continentality .............................. ---
5.2  Impact of Siberia's macro location on the efficiency of
     its industries ........................................... 138
5.3  Measures for decreasing transport costs .................. 144

Chapter 6  TRANSPORT-GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION (TGL) OF
ADMINISTRAТIVЕ REGIONS OF SIBERIA: COST ESTIMATION
(Bezrukov L.A., Dashpilov Ts.B.) .............................. 147
6.1  Specific features of Siberian transport system with
     respect to its macro location ............................ ---
6.2  Methods for TGL cost estimation .......................... 149
6.3  Present and forecast TGL of Siberia's administrative
     regions .................................................. 152

Chapter 7  SOCIAL POLICY REALITIES IN THE CONDITIONS OF
NATURAL CLIMATIC DISCOMFORT OF EAST SIBERIA
(Bashalkhanova L.B., Bashalkhanov L.A., Veselova V.N.,
Korytny L.M.) ................................................. 157
7.1  Climate discomfort assessment and social guarantees
     offered by the state ..................................... ---
7.2  Demographic processes in the conditions of climatic and
     social discomfort (at the example of the Sakha Republic
     (Yakutia) and Buryat Republic) ........................... 163
7.3  Special features of demographic processes dynamics ....... 166

Chapter 8  PRODUCTIVE FORCES SHIFT TO THE EAST: EVALUATION
OF HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE AND CHOICE OF DEVELOPMENT PATHWAY
FOR 21st CENTURY .............................................. 171
8.1  Approach to quantification of historical experience
     (Efimkin M.M., Malov V.Yu., Tymoshenko A.I.) ............. ---
8.2  Verification of the retrospect economic development
     model for Russia/USSR/Russia in 1889-2009 (Malov V.Yu.) .. 173
8.3  Counter-factual modeling: did we need the TransSib
     after all? (Efimkin M.M., Malov V.Yu., Tymoshenko A.I.) .. 178

                              Part 2
          DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS OF ASIAN RUSSIA AS PART OF
                     INTEGRATED ECONOMIC SPACE

Chapter 9  NORTH-EASTERN VECTOR OF RUSSIA'S ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT ................................................... 185
9.1  History repeats itself (Malov V.Yu.) ..................... ---
9.2  Does Russia need "expensive" resources of its Asian
     part? (Malov V.Yu., Kharitonova V.N.) .................... 192

Chapter 10 IMPACT OF TRANSPORT FACTOR ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MINERAL AND RAW MATERIAL RESOURCES OF ASIAN RUSSIA'S ARCTIC
ZONE .......................................................... 203
10.1 Specific features of transport and resource development
     (Tarasova O.V.) .......................................... ---
10.2 Prospects of resource development in the Asian Russian
     Arctic zone (Bondarenko L.A., Tarasova O.V.) ............. 208

Chapter 11 FORMATION OF AQUA TERRITORIAL COMPLEXES (АТС) IN
THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE AREA (Bondarenko L.A., lonova V.D.,
Malov V.Yu., Tarasova O.V.) ................................... 219
11.1 Prospects of Arctic ATPC formation ....................... ---
11.2 Contours of future Arctic ATPC ........................... 223

Chapter 12 DIRECTIONS OF LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT OF
TERRITORIAL STRUCTURES OF PACIFIC RUSSIAN ECONOMY
(Baklanov P.Ya., Romanov M.T.) ................................ 243
12.1 Pacific Russia, specific features of its territorial
     and aqua territorial economic structures ................. ---
12.2 Factors and restrictions of development .................. 248
12.3 Major tendencies and priorities of Pacific Russia's
     development .............................................. 271

Chapter 13 IMPLEMENTATION OF EAST SIBERIAN STRATEGIC
TRANSPORT-LOGISTIC PROJECTS: PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP
(Varnavsky V.G.) .............................................. 280
13.1 The role of transport-logistic centers (TLC) in
     regional economies ....................................... ---
13.2 Public-Private partnership (PPP) as a financial and
     economic mechanism of TLC development .................... 283
13.3 Actual and quasi PPP ..................................... 285
13.4 Financial and economic crisis: impact on PPP projects .... 287
13.5 Barriers on the PPP way of productive forces
     development in East Siberia .............................. 295
13.6 Transport-production consortiums when establishing
     International TLCs ....................................... ---
13.7 Role of the telecommunications sector .................... 297

Chapter 14 THE ROLE OF POWER ENGINEERING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF RUSSIAN ASIAN PART ......................................... 299
14.1 Different directions of Russia's power policies in the
     Asian part in their historical aspect: internal and
     external impact factors (Agafonov G.V., Korneyev A.G.,
     Saneev B.G.) ............................................. ---
14.2 The present situation, problems and priorities in the
     development of Asian Russia's economy and power
     engineering (Korneyev A.G., Muzychuk S.Yu.,
     Saneev B.G.) ............................................. 304
14.3 Internal and external conditions of Asian Russia's Fuel
     and Power Complex (FPC) development (Korneyev A.G.,
     Popov S.P., Sokolov A.D., Sokolov D.A.) .................. 311

Chapter 15 STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT OF POWER ENGINEERING IN
RUSSIAN EAST: SCALE, PROPORTIONS AND PREREQUISITES OF ENERGY
EXPORT TO ASIA-PACIFIC REGION ................................. 315
15.1 Structural changes in promising fuel-power balances in
     Russia's eastern regions (Muzychuk S.Yu., Muzychuk R.I.,
     Sokolov A.D.) ............................................ ---
15.2 Problems and prospects of oil and gas complex
     development of in the Russian East (Maysyuk E.P.,
     Platonov L.A.) ........................................... 319
15.3 Coal industry development: ways to increase demand for
     coal production (Sokolov A.D., Takayshvili L.N.) ......... 322
15.4 Development of electric-power industry: large projects
     and export prospects (Lagerev A.V., Hanayeva V.N.) ....... 324
15.5 Role of Small Energy in the social and economic
     development of Asian Russian northern territories and
     in creating favorable conditions for indigenous peoples
     (Ivanova I.Yu., Izhbuldin A.K., Tuguzova T.F.) ........... 327
15.6 Possible social and economic contribution of power
     engineering in the development of resource areas in the
     Russian East (Korneyev A.G., Tsapakh A.S.) ............... 334
15.7 Ecological problems of FPC development of TPC of the
     Russian East and how to cope with them (Maysyuk E.P.) .... 340

Chapter 16 KEY TOOLS OF THE STATE REGIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY
IN THE CONTEXT OF ACTIVE INTEGRATION PROCESSES ................ 343
16.1 Territorial production complexes (Agafonov G.V.,
     Korneyev A.G., Saneev B.G.) .............................. ---
16.2 Mechanisms promoting investment activities
     (Korneyev A.G.) .......................................... 346
16.3 International trade and economic cooperation and power
     engineering diplomacy (Korneyev A.G., Korneyev K.A.,
     Saneev B.G.) ............................................. 352

Chapter 17 NETWORK MODELS FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING OF INTER-
INDUSTRY MEGA PROJECTS OF OIL AND GAS REGIONS DEVELOPMENT ..... 356
17.1 Economic statement of the problem of decision-making
     coordination among the participants of inter-industry
     mega projects (Plyaskina N.I., Kharitonova V.N.) ......... ---
17.2 Network model for the East Siberian Oil and Gas Complex
     (ESOGC) mega project (Gimadi V.H., Goncharov E.N.,
     Plyaskina N.I., Kharitonova V.N.) ........................ 361
17.3 Mathematical statement and optimization algorithms for
     the discreet multiproduct dynamic problem of network
     planning (Gimadi V.H., Goncharov E.N., Plyaskina N.I.,
     Kharitonova V.N.) ........................................ 363
17.4 ESOGC mega project: implementation estimates
     (Plyaskina N.I., Kharitonova V.N.) ....................... 370

Chapter 18 SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF ASIAN RUSSIA'S ECOLOGICAL
AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ...................................... 375
18.1 Generic model for the territory's medical, ecological
     and economic development (Baturin V.A., Malov V.Yu.,
     Melentyev В.V., Stolbov A.B.) ............................ 377
18.2 Mathematical simulation of the USSR/Russian ecological
     and economic processes (Baturin V.A., Malov V.Yu.,
     Melentyev В.V., Stolbov A.B.) ............................ 381
18.3 Development of Asian Russia's regions: construction of
     medical, ecological and economic models and scenario
     analysis (Baturin V.A., Malov V.Yu., Melentyev В.V.,
     Stolbov A.B.) ............................................ 385
18.4 Intellectual software system for supporting the
     calculations of the medical, ecological and economic
     model (Stolbov A.B.) ..................................... 391

Chapter 19 INTEGRATION GROWTH FACTORS IN ASIAN RUSSIA ......... 395
19.1 Expansion of conventional techniques for making
     regional development projections, taking into account
     the foreign trade impact and implementation of industry
     projects (Zhdanova T.I., Melentyev B.V.) ................. ---
19.2 The Irkutsk Oblast as an object of priority interest
     for foreign trade partners in the Siberian Federal
     Okrug  ................................................... ---

Chapter 20 PROJECTIONS FOR THE BASIC TRANSPORT NETWORK
FORMATION: TOOLS FOR VARIANTS CALCULATIONS AND MODEL SOFTWARE
SYSTEM ........................................................ 415
20.1 Major tasks and methods for transport space studies
     (Vorobyova V.V., Malov V.Yu.) ............................ ---
20.2 Optimization model for forecasting the development of
     the Russian basic transport network (Vorobyova V.V.,
     Malov V.Yu.) ............................................. 418
20.3 Implementation scheme of alternative calculation tools
     (Bulyonkov M.A., Vorobyova V.V., Malov V.Yu.,
     Marusin V.V.) ............................................ 424

CONCLUSION (Malov V.Yu.) ...................................... 429
REFERENCES .................................................... 432
APPENDICES (Vorobyova V.V., Malov V.Yu.) ...................... 447

Выпуски
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