Schernikau L. Economics of the international coal trade: the renaissance of steam coal. - Dordrecht; New York: Springer, 2010. - xxv, 242 p.: col. ill. - Bibliogr.: p.159-163. - Ind.: p. 241-242. - ISBN 978-90-481-9239-7  Место хранения:   065 | Институт угля CO РАН | Кемерово

Оглавление / Contents

1 Executive Summary ............................................. 1 1.1 Sources of Coal - Synopsis of Coal's Significance as a Resource ................................................. 1 1.1.1 Coal Basics ....................................... 2 1.1.2 Production, Reserves, and Resources ............... 2 1.1.3 Competitive Supply ................................ 3 1.1.4 Coal Mining ....................................... 3 1.1.5 Environmental Issues and Safety of Coal Production ........................................ 4 1.2 Use of Coal - Power Generation and More .................. 4 1.2.1 Global Demand ..................................... 4 1.2.2 Power Markets ..................................... 5 1.2.3 Power Generation .................................. 5 1.2.4 Environment Issues Associated with the Use of Coal .............................................. 6 1.2.5 Comparative Analysis of Coal Substitutes .......... 6 1.3 Global Steam Coal Market and Supply Curve ................ 8 1.3.1 Geopolitical and Policy Environment ............... 8 1.3.2 Global Seaborne Steam Coal Trade Market ........... 9 1.3.3 Pricing and Capacity Utilization ................. 10 1.3.4 Variable Cost Analysis - Real Global FOB Costs ... 10 1.3.5 WorldCoal: GAMS-Programmed Coal Market Model Including Sea Freight ............................ 11 1.4 Industrial Structure of Supply Market: Game Theory and Cournot Competition ................................. 12 1.5 Conclusions, Implications, and the Future of Coal ....... 13 1.5.1 Future Steam Coal Price Trends ................... 13 1.5.2 Future Sources of Energy ......................... 14 2 Introduction ................................................. 17 2.1 Prelude ................................................. 17 2.2 Methodology ............................................. 21 2.3 Market Definition ....................................... 23 3 Sources of Coal - Review of Coal as a Resource ............... 25 3.1 The Fundamentals of Energy Sources and Fossil Fuels ..... 25 3.2 Process of Coal Formation ............................... 27 3.3 Classification and Key Characteristics of Coal .......... 28 3.3.1 Calorific Value .................................. 30 3.3.2 Ballast: Moisture and Ash Content ................ 31 3.3.3 Volatile Matter .................................. 34 3.3.4 Fixed Carbon Content ............................. 35 3.3.5 Sulfur Content ................................... 35 3.3.6 Size, Grindability, Nitrogen, Chlorine, and Fluorine ......................................... 37 3.4 Regional Analysis of World Coal Production, Reserves, and Resources ........................................... 37 3.4.1 World Resources, Reserves, and Production Analysis ......................................... 42 3.4.3 Indonesia ........................................ 44 3.4.4 South Africa ..................................... 48 3.4.5 Russia ........................................... 51 3.4.6 China ............................................ 54 3.4.7 Colombia and Venezuela ........................... 56 3.4.8 USA, Vietnam, Poland, and Canada ................. 57 3.5 Competitive Conditions of Coal Supply ................... 59 3.6 Coal Mining/Production .................................. 61 3.6.1 Optimal Use of Resources ......................... 61 3.6.2 Coal Mining Methods: Surface and Underground Mining ........................................... 62 3.6.3 Coal Mining Investments and Variable Operational Costs ................................ 65 3.6.4 Coal Amelioration and Coal Washing ............... 68 3.6.5 Environmental and Safety Issues Associated with Coal Production .................................. 70 4 Use of Coal - Power Generation and More ...................... 73 4.1 Introduction ............................................ 73 4.2 Steam Coal and Its Role in Power Generation ............. 74 4.2.1 Steam Coal Demand by Region ...................... 75 4.2.2 The World's Most Important Coal-Importing Countries ........................................ 77 4.3 Introduction to Power Markets ........................... 81 4.3.1 Matching Power Supply and Demand ................. 82 4.3.2 Power Pricing and Coal ........................... 83 4.3.3 Competitive Conditions of Power Generation ....... 85 4.4 Coal-Fired Power Plant Technologies ..................... 86 4.4.1 Power Plants and Coal Use ........................ 86 4.4.2 The Future of Power Plant Technology: Increased Efficiency, Reduced CO2, and CCS ........................ 88 4.5 Environmental Issues Associated with Coal Use ........... 90 4.5.1 How Much CO2 Stems from Coal? .................... 91 4.5.2 Nitrogen and Sulfur .............................. 92 4.6 Comparative Analysis of Coal Substitutes for Power Generation .............................................. 93 4.6.1 Natural Gas ...................................... 94 4.6.2 Nuclear Energy ................................... 97 4.6.3 Oil Production and Power Generation .............. 99 4.6.4 Alternatives: Hydro, Wind, Biomass, Solar, and Other Sources ................................... 101 4.6.5 Comparison ...................................... 104 4.7 The Future of Coal Use: CtL and Coal Bed Methane ...... 106 4.7.1 Coal to Liquid .................................. 107 4.7.2 Coal Bed Methane ................................ 109 5 The Global Steam Coal Market and Supply Curve ............... 111 5.1 Geopolitical and Policy Environment .................... 111 5.1.1 Introduction .................................... 111 5.1.2 Greenhouse Gas, Kyoto, and CO2 Trading ......... 112 5.1.3 Political Environment ........................... 113 5.2 Introduction to the Global Seaborne Coal Trade ......... 115 5.2.1 Atlantic vs. Pacific Coal Markets ............... 115 5.2.2 Market Participants and Market Power ............ 117 5.2.3 Seaborne Freight ................................ 118 5.3 Contract Terms, Coal Derivatives, and Price Formation Theory ................................................. 121 5.3.1 Coal Contract Terms ............................. 121 5.3.2 Paper Coal Derivatives and the Impact on Price and Trade ....................................... 122 5.3.3 Determinants of Coal Pricing .................... 126 5.3.4 Economic Theory and Coal Pricing ................ 130 5.4 Variable Cost Analysis - Real Global FOB Costs ......... 131 5.4.1 Methodology ..................................... 132 5.4.2 Results ......................................... 132 5.4.3 Implications .................................... 134 5.5 WorldCoal: GAMS-Programmed Coal Market Model Including Sea Freight .................................. 135 5.5.1 Implications .................................... 136 6 Industrial Structure: Game Theory and Cournot ............... 139 6.1 Introduction ........................................... 139 6.2 Reference Model 1: Perfect Competition ................. 140 6.3 Reference Model 2: Monopoly ............................ 141 6.4 Cournot Competition .................................... 142 6.5 Bertrand and Stackelberg ............................... 142 6.5.1 Bertrand, Simultaneous Price Competition ........ 142 6.5.2 Stackelberg, Dynamic Quantity Competition ....... 143 6.6 Cournot with Constant vs. Increasing Marginal Cost ..... 144 7 Conclusions, Implications, and the Future of Coal ........... 147 7.1 Introduction ........................................... 147 7.2 Implications of the Cournot Extension for the Coal Market ................................................. 147 7.3 Current and Future Market Dynamics of the Coal Trade ... 149 7.3.1 Market Participants ............................. 149 7.3.2 Physical Trading Volumes ........................ 149 7.3.3 Trading Risks ................................... 150 7.3.4 Financial Markets/Derivatives ................... 151 7.3.5 Regional Developments ........................... 151 7.3.6 Production and Trade Consolidation .............. 152 7.4 Future Steam Coal Price Trends ......................... 153 7.5 Future Source of Energy: What Role Will Coal Play in the Global Power Mix? .................................. 155 7.5.1 Environment ..................................... 157 7.6 Suggestions for Future Research ........................ 158 Bibliography ................................................... 159 Appendix A Conversion of Energy Units .................................. 169 Appendix В World Electricity Production by Fuel ........................ 171 Appendix С CO2 Emissions by Source and Country ......................... 177 Appendix D Online Coal Survey Results and Questions .................... 183 Appendix E WorldCoal Market Model ...................................... 197 Appendix F GAMS Programming Syntax of WorldCoal ........................ 211 Appendix G Industrial Structure: Game Theory and Cournot ............... 215 Index .......................................................... 241