Российская наука и мир (дайджест)

К середине XXI века на Земле вследствие существенного уменьшения полного потока солнечного излучения произойдет глобальное понижение температуры до состояния глубокого похолодания. Такое мнение высказал сотрудник Главной (Пулковской) астрономической обсерватории Российской академии наук (РАН) Хабибулло Абдусаматов.

A Russian astronomer has predicted that Earth will experience a "mini Ice Age" in the middle of this century, caused by low solar activity.
Khabibullo Abdusamatov of the Pulkovo Astronomic Observatory in St. Petersburg said Monday that temperatures will begin falling six or seven years from now, when global warming caused by increased solar activity in the 20th century reaches its peak, RIA Novosti reported.
The coldest period will occur 15 to 20 years after a major solar output decline between 2035 and 2045, Abdusamatov said.
Dramatic changes in the earth's surface temperatures are an ordinary phenomenon, not an anomaly, he said, and result from variations in the sun's energy output and ultraviolet radiation.
The Northern Hemisphere's most recent cool-down period occurred between 1645 and 1705. The resulting period, known as the Little Ice Age, left canals in the Netherlands frozen solid and forced people in Greenland to abandon their houses to glaciers, the scientist said.

© PhysOrg.com 2003-2006

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World Peace Herald/ 13 feb. 2006

Outside View: The future is nuclear

By Yevgeny Velikhov

Академик Е.Велихов оптимистично полагает, что естественные энергетические ресурсы еще не скоро будут исчерпаны.

MOSCOW - I am an optimist, and I don't think that natural energy resources will be depleted anytime soon.
At any rate, oil and gas, rather than nuclear power, will continue to be the main source of energy, which will be sufficient to ensure the world's steady development until the middle of this century.

In addition, we still have coal. As for atomic power engineering, its role during this period will be to stabilize the world's energy situation, which appears to be extremely complicated.
Certain countries possess a prevailing amount of natural resources due to their uneven distribution in the world. For this reason, the energy issue is intertwined with politics, and sometimes becomes a trump card in a political game. Nuclear power engineering is capable of reassuring all those who are not certain about having sufficient energy today and tomorrow. There is no doubt it is the only source of energy that can ensure the world's steady development in the foreseeable future. Today, this fact is understood not only by physicists, but also by politicians, who have to accept it as an axiom.
In the modern world, people are actively striving to improve the quality of life, but more amenities require a great deal of energy. Several billion people, whom the nations of the golden billion only recently considered poor and an object of charity, are today consuming as much energy as they need. This allows them to achieve fast economic progress. Many of them (China, Korea, India, Malaysia, and others) are reaching the level of the world's leaders. New powerful consumers are emerging on the energy market.
Experience shows that all known sources of energy are at the service of people, and have a role to play in their lives. Although nuclear power will be moving to the fore, I do not rule out that mankind will develop alternative sources of energy as well. The energy of the sun, wind, tides and biomass will find a niche. The use of these energy carriers is justified and they harmoniously supplement each other.
However, nuclear power engineering has indisputable advantages over alternative sources of energy. Nuclear power engineering will not only relieve transport of a titanic burden, but will also give an addition reserve of fuel. Oil and gas prices keep growing, and it is clear they are not going to fall. This situation may cause a collapse of the economy or of individual industries. In the United States, for one, the price of gas is so high its chemical industry is losing its ability to compete on the world market. Other countries are faced with similar problems. Nuclear power engineering will be the only energy alternative in this situation.
Although the industry is complicated, and requires huge investment and proper security, it is still the best option in the final count. In the European part of Russia, it makes more sense to build nuclear power stations than gas ones. Gas may be used more rationally in the chemical industry, or sold abroad at a good price, which will contribute to the national budget. Replacement of gas with nuclear energy is a strategic cause for Russia.
Today, Russia is at the world's average level in the use of nuclear energy. Its contribution to the common energy pot averages 17 to 18 percent (up to 30 percent in the European part of the country). If we look three or four decades ahead in order to evaluate Russia's nuclear energy requirements, we will see its share should be increased by at least 25 percent, if not more.
Russia is not the only country to recognize the value of nuclear power engineering. French nuclear power plants account for up to 80 percent of national energy consumption. In his recent State of the Union Address, U.S. President Bush spoke about the need to replace non-renewable energy sources with nuclear energy. Supplies of cheap Russian gas to Europe put a certain restraint on the development of nuclear power engineering. Germany was even considering giving it up altogether. But now everything is changing. Rational Europeans have realized that nuclear power engineering is indispensable. As for India and China, it is difficult even to imagine these giants making progress without such a powerful source of energy.
True, they are rich in coal (for the time being!). But the burning of coal generates large amounts of carbon dioxide, which is fraught with unpredictable climatic changes like accelerated global warming. There is another problem: Coal is linked to the appearance of aerosols, which are the main source of lung cancer. I do not mean to say that coal mining has no future. People will learn to burn coal without these side effects, just as they have coped with a number of problems in nuclear power engineering. I think that today the latter industry has left others far behind in terms of security and ecology. As for the negative impact on the climate and environment, it can well compete with any other form of power generation, including solar and wind energy.
The advantage of nuclear power engineering is it is not accompanied by hothouse emissions or pollution of the atmosphere. The 1986 techno-genic Chernobyl disaster slowed down the advance of nuclear power engineering, and the public lost interest and trust in it. But the progressing market difficulties with hydrocarbons have compelled the world to turn to nuclear power engineering once again. Today, many countries, Russia among them, have placed their bets on this industry.
By the middle of the century, we physicists are hoping to see rapid development of another, more progressive type of nuclear power engineering - thermonuclear synthesis. Let me remind you that all life on Earth is a stream of solar energy of thermonuclear origin. Will thermonuclear energy meet mankind's requirements? Of course, there is no magic wand that could make energy sources last forever. But thermonuclear energy is very promising. It is not for nothing that it is called the Sun of the Earth (150 million degrees inside the reactor). For the time being this type of energy is very expensive, and commercially unviable. Experts will have to solve a whole package of scientific problems, and upgrade a number of technologies in order to make the thermonuclear power plant competitive with other energy sources.
Seven participants in the unique project -- Europe, Japan, Russia, the United States, China, South Korea and India -- have agreed to invest $5 billion into the construction of a thermonuclear experimental reactor (known by the Russian acronym ITER), pooling their intellectual resources, industrial capacities and technologies. The site has been chosen - Cadarache in Provence, France. When will this project be implemented? If we start building it by a well-orchestrated effort this year, its construction will be completed in 10 years. Another five years will be spent on designing an electric power station, and another 20 years on extensive research. The fast track suggested by British Prime Minister Tony Blair's adviser Sir David King is aimed at building the first thermonuclear electric station by 2030. If this experience succeeds, the world will receive very powerful sources of energy - thermonuclear electric stations. This will be an effective cure for the headache caused by the energy problem for a long time to come.
ITER's history is an amusing illustration of how politicians have advanced the cause of nuclear power engineering. A perfect balance of mutual interests has taken shape: Politicians have no choice but to vote for atomic power engineering, whereas its destiny largely depends on the political will of governments. It is no secret that on the one hand, politicians express national interests, whereas on the other hand, they are speaking for themselves with an eye to elections, populist motives, personal prestige and ambitions. Decision on the ITER project was a strictly political one, and credit for it goes to the political leaders. In 1985, Russian physicists convinced then-President Mikhail Gorbachev of the advantages of thermonuclear energy. In turn, he had a fruitful discussion with Francois Mitterrand, who appeared to be well versed in the subject and took it further by convincing U.S. President Ronald Reagan of its benefits. As a result, an agreement on ITER was signed the same year in Geneva, Switzerland.
This is not the end of the story. Credit for the choice of the site in France goes to another French president, Jacques Chirac, who put huge pressure on other participants. Moreover, Chirac managed to persuade Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who was very enthusiastic about Japan hosting ITER. He finally gave in, but not for nothing. The Japanese were happy about a brilliant idea suggested by Russia -- to start designing a commercial thermonuclear power station in Japan on a par with the experimental ITER project in France. This idea received universal support.
Under heavy pressure from his domestic opponents, President Bill Clinton was forced to withdraw from the ITER project. But Bush made rational decision to return to the project. He even urged the nation to view ITER as a priority of future American energy policy. Russian President Vladimir Putin called on the world to give credit to nuclear power engineering at the Millennium Summit in New York in 2000. Thank God, today's world compels politicians to think about the future.
Yevgeny Velikhov is an acknowledged world expert in the nuclear power industry and fuel cycle development. He was awarded the highest of the USSR and Russia's orders and prizes. He is a Szillard Prize winner of the American Physical society, and "Science and World" Prize winner of the World Federation of the Scientists, Switzerland.

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Cape Times / February 15 2006

Fish with bleeding ulcers turn up in river

Рыба с кровоточащими язвами заходит в р. Амур, обостряя тревоги о воздействии токсических ядохимикатов, распространяющихся по водному пути после аварии на предприятии в Китае.

MOSCOW - Fish with bleeding ulcers are turning up in the Amur River in Russia's Far East, sharpening concerns about the effects of a factory accident that sent a toxic chemical slick coursing through the waterway, Russian media reported on Tuesday.
Russian scientists are doing tests to determine whether the ulcers were caused by the chemicals dumped into the river by an explosion at a Chinese plant on a tributary of the Amur, which forms the border between Russia and China and then flows through Russian territory to the Pacific Coast, the reports said.
According to the ITAR-Tass news agency, ichthyologists have seen the problem in the past but said that the degree to which the fish have been affected in this case is worrisome.
In comments on state-run Rossiya television, a Russian official said that studies of the river and its aquatic life had found high concentrations of chemicals that the Chinese had not listed when they informed Russia of the content of the spill.
High concentrations of chemicals
The chemicals included ethylbenzene, butylbenzene and chloroform, said Sergei Andriyenko, first deputy natural resources minister in the Khabarovsk region government. The list of toxins China provided included benzene, nitrobenzene and others.
Lyubov Kondrateyeva, the director of a laboratory at a Russian Academy of Sciences environmental studies institute, told Rossiya that the chemicals found in Amur fish could be hazardous to humans.
Fishing in the Russian part of the Amur has been banned since shortly after the November accident, badly hurting riverside communities whose economies depend on it.
One local man, Nikolai Kolesnikov, indicated that he had fished after the accident but would not do so now - even if it were permitted.
"It was easy to catch fish but you couldn't eat it - it has a very sharp smell, like medicine," he said.
"If you start to fry it you have to run out of your house because the smell is impossible to bear."

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VNAgency.com / 02/13/2006

Vietnamese and Russian scientists collaborate on infectious disease studies

Российские и вьетнамские ученые из Российско-Вьетнамского научно-исследовательского тропического центра приступили к совместным исследованиям опасных инфекционных болезней, включая птичий грипп и атипичную пневмонию.

Ha Noi, Feb. 13 (VNA) – Vietnamese and Russian scientists at the Viet Nam – Russia Tropical Centre will steer a new round of their joint research on dangerous contagious diseases, including avian influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which might plague the community.
With this new focus, scientists expect to produce bio-products and medical equipment to help protect people from exposure to these infectious diseases. Avian influenza has already claimed 42 lives in Viet Nam since its appearance in the country.
They will also investigate methods on how to treat the environment if infectious diseases affect a wide area.
In the recent past, the Viet Nam-Russia Tropical Centre has made progress in studying typical diseases stemming from tropical zones, such as plague and animal-borne diseases in an attempt to prevent these diseases from transmitting to humans.
The Viet Nam-Russia Tropical Centre, jointly managed by the Vietnamese Ministry of Defence and the Russia Academy of Sciences, has undertaken hundreds of joint studies on tropical durability, tropical ecosystems and tropical biology to serve national defence and socio-economic development in each country.

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