Preface ....................................................... iii
SESSION 1
Session Chair: Bob Cousins
Eric Feigelson
Statistical Challenges in Modern Astronomy ...................... 1
Roger Barlow
Introduction to Statistical Issues in Particle Physics .......... 8
SESSION 2
Session Chair: John Rice
Brad Efron
Bayesians, Frequentists, and Physicists ........................ 17
Philip Stark
Using What We Know: Inference with Physical Constraints ........ 25
SESSION 3: A (Parallel)
Session Chair: Bill Murray
James Linnemann
Measures of Significance in HEP and Astrophysics ............... 35
Wolfgang Rolke
How to Claim a Discovery ....................................... 41
Francesco Terranova
Scan Statistics in High Energy Physics ......................... 45
Alfred Scharff Goldhaber
Supernova 1987A Neutrino Signal: Statistical Power of
a Small Sample ................................................. 49
SESSION 3: B (Parallel)
Session Chair: Pekka Sinervo
Joel Heinrich
Pitfalls of Goodness-of-Fit from Likelihood .................... 52
Kay Kinoshita
An Unbinned Goodness-of-Fit Test Based on the Random Walk ...... 56
Rajendran Raja
A Measure of the Goodness of Fit in Unbinned Likelihood Fits;
End of Bayesianism? ............................................ 61
Ilya Narsky
Goodness of Fit: What Do We Really Want To Know? ............... 70
SESSION 4: A (Parallel)
Session Chair: Glen Cowan
Peter Shawhan
Fundamental Issues in Statistical Detection of Physical
Phenomena ...................................................... 75
Giovanni Punzi
Sensitivity of Searches for New Signals and Its Optimization ... 79
Bruce Knuteson
Systematic Analysis of HEP Collider Data ....................... 84
William Quayle
Challenges in Moving the LEP Higgs Statistics to the LHC ....... 93
SESSION 4: B (Parallel)
Session Chair: Jim Linneman
Gunter Zech
A Multivariate Two-Sample Test Based on the Concept of
Minimum Energy ................................................. 97
Volker Blobel
Some Comments on χ2 Minimization Applications ................. 101
Maria Grazia Pia
A Software Toolkit for Statistical Data Analysis .............. 106
Alberto Ribon
Code-Testing of Statistical Test Implementations .............. 110
SESSION 5
Session Chair: Jogesh Babu
Persi Diaconis
A place for Philosophy? Bayesian Statistics in 2003
David Van Dyk
Highly-Structured Statistical Models in High-Energy
Astrophysics .................................................. 114
SESSION 6
Session Chair: Eric Feigelson
Bob Nichol
Data mining cosmological data sets: the need for fast and
efficient algorithms
Pekka Sinervo
Definition and Treatment of Systematic Uncertainties in High
Energy Physics and Astrophysics ............................... 122
SESSION 7: A (Parallel)
Session Chair: Roger Barlow
Ricard Vilalta
Evaluating and Constructing Features For Identification of
Tau Leptons ................................................... 130
Sang-Joon Lee
Application of Adaptive Mixtures and Fractal Dimension
Analysis Technique to Particle Physics ........................ 134
Jean-Francois Cardoso
Separation of independent components from multi-detector
measurements. Application to spectral estimation of
the Cosmic Microwave Background
SESSION 7: B (Parallel)
Session Chair: Volker Blobel
Gunter Zech
Binning-Free Unfolding Based on Monte Carlo Migration ......... 138
Kristian Zarb Adami
Variational Methods in Bayesian Deconvolution ................. 143
Alexander Bukin
A Comparison of Methods for Confidence Intervals .............. 148
Giovanni Bonvicini
Maximal Information Analysis: I - Various Wayne State Plots ... 151
SESSION 8: A (Parallel)
Session Chair: Richard Mount
Ofer Levi
Multiscale Geometric Analysis for 3-D Galaxy Catalogs
Andrew Askew
Event Selection Using Adaptive Gaussian Kernels ............... 154
Jeffrey Scargle
Adaptive Piecewise-constant Modeling of Signals in
Multidimensional Spaces ....................................... 157
Thomas Loredo
Bayesian Adaptive Exploration in a Nutshell ................... 162
SESSION 8: B (Parallel)
Session Chair: Gunter Zech
Aaron Roodman
Blind Analysis in Particle Physics ............................ 166
Lee Finn
Data Analysis Challenges of Gravitational Wave Astronomy
Alain Bellerive
Constraints on Neutrino Mixing Parameters with the SNO Data ... 170
Peter Litchfield
A Feldman-Cousins Likelihood Analysis of Soudan 2 Data for
Atmospheric Neutrino Oscillations ............................. 175
SESSION 9
Session Chair: Gary Feldman
Seth Digel
Statistical Issues in High-Energy Gamma-Ray Astronomy for
GLAST ......................................................... 176
Frank Porter
Statistical Issues in Particle Physics - A View from BaBar .... 186
SESSION 10
Session Chair: Bill Murray
Jerry Friedman
Recent Advances in Predictive (Machine) Learning .............. 196
Harrison Prosper
Multivariate Analysis: Past, Present and Future
SESSION 11: A (Parallel)
Session Chair: Dean Karlen
Jim Loudin
A Multivariate Method for Comparing N-dimensional
Distributions ................................................. 207
Kyle Cranmer
Multivariate Analysis from a Statistical Point of View ........ 211
Byron Roe
Event Selection Using an Extended Fisher Discriminant
Method ........................................................ 215
Gary Hill
Optimizing the Limit Setting Potential of a Multivariate
Analysis Using the Bayes Posterior Ratio ...................... 218
SESSION 11: B (Parallel)
Session Chair: Jeffrey Scargle
David Newman
Point Processes and the Analysis of Collision Data ............ 222
Creon Levit
The Hyperwall
Gunter Zech
A Simple Iterative Alignment Method Using Gradient
Descending Minimum Search ..................................... 226
Gregory Dubois-Felsmann
Techniques for handling theoretical uncertainties:
general tools and application to global CKM fits
SESSION 12: A (Parallel)
Session Chair: Tom Loredo
Benjamin Wandelt
MAGIC: Exact Bayesian Covariance Estimation and Signal
Reconstruction for Gaussian Random Fields ..................... 229
Giovanni Punzi
Comments on Likelihood Fits with Variable Resolutions ......... 235
Lucio Baggio
Setting Confidence Intervals in Coincidence Search Analysis ... 238
Florencia Canelli
Optimal Use of Information to Measure Top Quark Properties .... 242
SESSION 12: B (Parallel)
Session Chair: Nancy Reid
Evan Scannapieco
Temporal Bias in the Clustering of Massive Cosmological
Objects ....................................................... 246
Roger Barlow
Asymmetric Errors ............................................. 250
Luc Demortier
Constructing Ensembles of Pseudo-Experiments .................. 256
Kyle Cranmer
Frequentist Hypothesis Testing with Background Uncertainty .... 261
SESSION 13
Session Chair: Jerry Friedman
Nancy Reid
Likelihood Inference in the Presence of Nuisance Parameters ... 265
Fred James
A Unified Approach to Understanding Statistics ................ 272
SESSION 14
Session Chair: Fred James
Chris Genovese
Doing Cosmology with Balls and Envelopes
Benjamin Wandelt
Statistical Challenges of Cosmic Microwave Background
Analysis ...................................................... 280
SESSION 15
Session Chair: Louis Lyons
Daniel Stump
Uncertainties of Parton Distribution Functions ................ 289
SESSION 16
Session Chair: Brad Efron
John Rice
A View of PHYSTAT2003 ......................................... 296
Panel Discussion .............................................. 299
Panel Discussion Questions .................................... 309
Jerome Friedman
On Multivariate Goodness-of-Fit and Two-Sample Testing ........ 311
Not Presented at the Conference
Sergei Redin
Some Basic Statistical Equations for Histogram Fitting ........ 314
Sergei Bityukov
Incorporating Systematics and Statistical Uncertainties into
Exclusion Limits .............................................. 318
Ercan Kuruoğlu
Bayesian Separation of Independent Sources in Astrophysical
Radiation Maps Using MCMC ..................................... 321
Diego Herranz
Using α-Stable Distributions to Model the P(D) Distribution
of Point Sources in CMB Sky Maps .............................. 324
Recommended Reading List ...................................... 329
Committees .................................................... 331
List of Participants .......................................... 332
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