Foreword by Bo Kjellén .......................................... 8
Authors ......................................................... 8
Introduction .................................................... 9
Definition of Key Terms ........................................ 14
PART 1: SIGNS OF CHANGE ........................................ 19
Warning Signs
New records and observations around the world are consistent
with scientists' expectations of climate change ................ 20
Polar Changes
Warming in the polar regions is driving large-scale melting
of ice that will have both local and global consequences ....... 22
Glacial Retreat
Most of the world's glaciers are retreating at unprecedented
rates - a clear sign of warming ................................ 24
Everyday Extremes
Weather-related disasters are becoming increasingly common
around the world ............................................... 26
PART 2: FORCING CHANGE ......................................... 29
The Greenhouse Effect
The increasing concentration of greenhouse gases is trapping
more heat ...................................................... 30
The Climate System
The entire climate system is adjusting to an increase in the
heat trapped in the Earth's atmosphere ......................... 32
Interpreting Past Climates
Concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane are higher than
they have ever been in the last 650,000 years. The Earth is
warmer than in the past 1,000 years ............................ 34
Forecasting Future Climates
Global temperatures are predicted to continue rising ........... 36
PART 3: DRIVING CLIMATE CHANGE ................................. 39
Emissions Past and Present
Most greenhouse gases have been, and are, emitted to meet
the needs of modern industrial societies ....................... 40
Fossil Fuels
The emission of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil
fuels is the major cause of climate change ..................... 42
Methane and Other Gases
A range of greenhouse gases contribute to climate change ....... 44
Transportation
International trade, travel and a growing dependence on
motor vehicles make transportation one of the main sources
of greenhouse gas emissions .................................... 46
Disrupting the Carbon Balance
Carbon is essential in the natural environment, but changes
in land use may release stored carbon and contribute to
climate change ................................................. 48
Agriculture
Greenhouse gases are emitted in the production of food. While
some agriculture meets basic needs, some simply provides
wealthy consumers with the luxury of choice .................... 50
PART 4: EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES .................................. 53
Disrupted Ecosystems
Many species and ecosystems, already at risk from human
development, may not be able to adapt to new climatic
conditions and stresses ........................................ 54
Threatened Water Supplies
Water scarcity is already a growing concern. In some places
climate change will make it even more critical ................. 56
Food Security
Climate change threatens food security, although crop yields
in temperate regions may improve ............................... 58
Threats to Health
Climate change threatens human health. The poorest regions
are likely to be the hardest hit ............................... 60
Rising Sea Levels
Thermal expansion of oceans and melting ice will lead to
a substantial rise in sea level, threatening many coastal
communities .................................................... 62
Cities at Risk
Coastal erosion, salt-water intrusion into freshwater
supplies, and coastal storms all threaten coastal areas -
often regions of high population growth and intensive
economic development ........................................... 64
Cultural Losses
Damage to indigenous cultures, historical monuments and
archaeological sites adds to the incalculable economic losses
of climate change .............................................. 66
PART 5: RESPONDING TO CHANGE ................................... 69
International Action
Most countries have acknowledged the problem of climate
change by signing the Convention on Climate Change ............. 70
Meeting Kyoto Targets
Many countries are making progress towards their Kyoto
commitments, but even the agreed targets fall far short of
stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions at levels considered to
be safe ........................................................ 72
Carbon Trading
Trading in carbon credits is one way to share the burden of
reducing emissions globally .................................... 74
Financing Responses
Current funding is inadequate to help countries respond to
climate change ................................................. 76
Local Commitment
In many places, local and regional authorities are developing
more aggressive emission reduction policies than federal
governments .................................................... 78
Carbon Dioxide and Economic Growth
Economic growth can be achieved with lower greenhouse gas
emissions ...................................................... 80
Renewable Energy
Renewable energy sources could be the technological key to
economically and socially sustainable societies ................ 82
Adapting to Change
The capacity to adapt to climatic hazards and stresses
depends on a country's wealth, resources and governance ........ 84
PART 6: COMMITTING TO SOLUTIONS ................................ 87
Personal Action
People all over the world are taking measures to reduce the
greenhouse gases emitted as a result of the way they live ...... 88
Public Action
The policies, practices, and investments of governments,
businesses, and civic organizations will have the greatest
impact on our future ........................................... 90
PART 7: CLIMATE CHANGE DATA .................................... 93
Data table ..................................................... 94
Sources ....................................................... 102
Index ......................................................... 110
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