List of Contributors ........................................... ix
Introduction .................................................... 1
Alan Hajek and Christopher Hitchcock
1 Probability for Everyone—Even Philosophers ................... 5
Alan Hajek and Christopher Hitchcock
PART I: HISTORY
2 Pre-history of Probability .................................. 33
James Franklin
3 Probability in 17th- and 18th-century Continental Europe
from the Perspective of Jacob Bernoulli's Art of
Conjecturing ................................................ 50
Edith Dudley Sylla
4 Probability and Its Application in Britain during the 17th
and 18th Centuries .......................................... 69
David R. Bellhouse
5 A Brief History of Probability Theory from 1810 to 1940 ..... 87
Hans Fischer
6 The Origins of Modern Statistics: The English Statistical
School ..................................................... 112
John Aldrich
7 The Origins of Probabilistic Epistemology: Some Leading
20th-century Philosophers of Probability ................... 130
Maria Carla Galavotti
PART II: FORMALISM
8 Kolmogorovs Axiomatization and Its Discontents ............. 155
Aidan Lyon
9 Conditional Probability .................................... 167
Kenny Easwaran
10 The Bayesian Network Story ................................. 183
Richard E. Neapolitan and Xia Jiang
PART III: ALTERNATIVES TO STANDARD PROBABILITY THEORY
11 Mathematical Alternatives to Standard Probability that
Provide Selectable Degrees of Precision .................... 203
Terrence L. Fine
12 Probability and Nonclassical Logic ......................... 248
J. Robert G. Williams
13 A Logic of Comparative Support: Qualitative Conditional
Probability Relations Representable by Popper Functions .... 277
James Hawthorne
14 Imprecise and Indeterminate Probabilities .................. 296
Fabio G. Cozman
PART IV: INTERPRETATIONS AND INTERPRETIVE ISSUES
15 Symmetry Arguments in Probability .......................... 315
Sandy Zabell
16 Frequentism ................................................ 341
Adam La Caze
17 Subjectivism ............................................... 360
Lyle Zynda
18 Bayesianism vs. Frequentism in Statistical Inference ....... 382
Jan Sprenger
19 The Propensity Interpretation .............................. 406
Donald Gillies
20 Best System Approaches to Chance ........................... 423
Wolfgang Schwarz
21 Probability and Randomness ................................. 440
Antony Eagle
22 Chance and Determinism ..................................... 460
Roman Frigg
PART V: PROBABILISTIC JUDGMENT AND ITS APPLICATIONS
23 Human Understandings of Probability ........................ 477
Michael Smithson
24 Probability Elicitation .................................... 497
Stephen C. Hora
25 Probabilistic Opinion Pooling .............................. 519
Franz Dietrich and Christian List
PART VI: APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY: SCIENCE
26 Quantum Probability: An Introduction ....................... 545
Guido Bacciagaluppi
27 Probabilities in Statistical Mechanics ..................... 573
Wayne C. Myrvold
28 Probability in Biology: The Case of Fitness ................ 601
Roberta L. Millstein
PART VII APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY: PHILOSOPHY
29 Probability in Epistemology ................................ 625
Matthew Kotzen
30 Confirmation Theory ........................................ 650
Vincenzo Crupi and Katya Tentori
31 Self-Locating Credences .................................... 666
Michael G. Titelbaum
32 Probability in Logic ....................................... 681
Hannes Leitgeb
33 Probability in Ethics ...................................... 705
David McCarthy
34 Probability and the Philosophy of Religion ................. 738
Paul Bartha
35 Probability in Philosophy of Language ...................... 772
Eric Swanson
36 Decision Theory ............................................ 789
Lara Buchak
37 Probabilistic Causation .................................... 815
Christopher Hitchcock
Name Index .................................................... 833
Subject Index ................................................. 851
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