List of figures .............................................. X
List of tables ............................................ xvii
Preface .................................................... xxi
1 Traditional economic cycle theories and their limitations .... 1
The classical economic cycle theory .......................... 1
Keynesian school ............................................. 4
The neoclassical school ...................................... 9
Recent progress of studies on economic cycle theory ......... 12
2 Normal estimation of income distribution of China's urban
and rural households ........................................ 14
Bell-shapedfeature of urban and rural households' income
distribution in China ....................................... 15
Normal estimation of rural household income distribution in
China ....................................................... 17
Normal estimation of urban household income distribution
in China .................................................... 29
3 The normality of household income distribution and
endogenous mechanism of the economic cycle .................. 41
Background .................................................. 41
The normal distribution of household income and
the endogenous mechanism of the cycle of demandfor
durables .................................................... 42
Normal distribution of household income and half-cycle of
demand for non-durables ..................................... 49
The influence of entrepreneurial innovations on the cycle
of demandfor consumer goods ................................. 53
The influence of income inequality on the endogenous
mechanism of the cycle of consumer goods: the importance
of moderate income inequality ............................... 56
The transmission mechanism from cycle of consumer goods to
cycle of industry: the role of the industrial multiplier .... 65
The transmission mechanism from the industry cycle to the
economy cycle: the impact of industrial restructuring ....... 66
Basic conclusion ............................................ 66
4 In global perspective: the normal distribution of
household income and the endogenous mechanism of the cycle
of demand for consumer goods ................................ 68
Normal estimation of household income distribution in other
countries, with the US and Japan as examples ................ 68
Cycle of demandfor consumer goods from a global
perspective ................................................. 72
Influence of international market demand on individual
country's cycle of demandfor durables ....................... 76
The influence of international market demand on the cycle
of demand for non-durables in individual countries .......... 81
5 Categories of economic cycles and analysis of the factors
affecting their periods ..................................... 84
Household income and consumer prices are two basic factors
that determine the period of the income distribution cycle .. 85
The consumer price adjustment cycle induced by supply lag
and its influence on the period of the income distribution
cycle ....................................................... 89
The replacement demand cycle of durables induced by
replacement demand and its influence on the period of the
income distribution cycle ................................... 91
The innovation demand cycle induced by product innovation
and its influence on the period of income distribution
cycle of consumer goods ..................................... 94
The influence of export on the period of the income
distribution cycle of consumer goods ........................ 97
The period of the consumer demand cycle and the period of
the economic cycle .......................................... 99
6 Factors affecting the amplitude of the economic cycle ...... 101
Factors influencing the amplitude of the income
distribution cycle of consumer goods ....................... 102
Factors influencing the amplitude of the price adjustment
cycle of consumer goods .................................... 104
Factors influencing the amplitude of the replacement
demand cycle of consumer goods ............................. 105
Factors influencing the amplitude of the innovation demand
cycle of consumer goods .................................... 109
The influence of export on the amplitude of the consumer
demand cycle ............................................... 110
Factors influencing the amplitude of the industrial cycle .. 112
Factors influencing the amplitude of the economic cycle .... 115
7 The dynamic equilibrium growth process of the economic
cycle ...................................................... 120
Cyclical fluctuations are the basic rule of economic
activity ................................................... 120
The instantaneous equilibrium value of the economic cycle
and its influence factors .................................. 122
Consistency between neoclassical stable growth theory and
dynamic equilibrium growth process of the economic cycle ... 126
Empirical test: the impact of short-term fluctuations on
long-term fluctuations and the dynamic equilibrium growth
process .................................................... 130
Conclusion and policy implications ......................... 133
8 The cycle of demand for consumer durables and its
influence on the economic cycle in China ................... 136
The period of the income distribution cycle of household
electrical appliances and family passenger vehicles in
China's urban households ................................... 137
The period of the income distribution cycle of rural
households' demand for household electrical appliances in
China ...................................................... 139
Influence of product innovation on the period of the
consumer durables demand cycle: taking rural households'
demand for TV sets as an example ........................... 141
Period of actual demand cycle of household electrical
appliances and passenger vehicles in China ................. 143
Influence of the demand for consumer durables on urban and
rural households' consumption expenditure structure in
China ...................................................... 148
Influence of the consumer durables demand cycle on the
period of the economic cycle in China ...................... 149
Conclusions and policy recommendations ..................... 161
9 The influence of household income distribution on urban
household passenger vehicles and the economic cycle in
China ...................................................... 164
The structural changes and different development stages
of the production of Chinese urban households 'passenger
vehicles ................................................... 165
Evolution of income inequality among Chinese urban
households ................................................. 168
The demand function of China's passenger vehicle
production and its future development trend ................ 170
The influence of average urban household income level and
income inequality on passenger vehicle production .......... 177
The influence of Chinese urban households' passenger
vehicles on the automobile industry and economic growth .... 183
Conclusions and policy recommendations ..................... 188
10 The characteristics of and factors affecting the evolution
of China's economic cycle and its dynamic equilibrium ...... 190
The characteristics of the evolution of China's economic
cycle and its dynamic equilibrium .......................... 190
Factors affecting cyclical fluctuations and the dynamic
equilibrium of China's economic growth rate ................ 199
Conclusions and policy recommendations ..................... 222
11 The development trend of China's economic cycle in the
next decade ................................................ 224
Tools and premises offorecasting analysis .................. 225
Future trend of the dynamic equilibrium value of China's
economic growth rate ....................................... 228
Trend of the short-term fluctuation of China's economic
growth rate ................................................ 236
Future trend of the mid-term fluctuation of China's
economic growth rate ....................................... 242
Future development of the mid-to-long-term fluctuation of
China's economic growth rate ............................... 248
Future development of the long-term fluctuation of China's
economic growth rate ....................................... 254
Future development of China's economic growth rate ......... 259
Conclusions and policy recommendations ..................... 265
The theoretical foundation and framework of the cyclical
model on China's economic growth ........................... 268
Theoretical foundation regarding the cyclical model of
economic growth ............................................ 268
The influencing factor analysis equation of the cyclical
model of economic growth ................................... 269
Operation of model simulation .............................. 285
Bibliography ............................................... 290
Index ...................................................... 292
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