 | Graf P. The impact of very short-lived substances on the stratospheric chemistry and interactions with the climate: Diss. zur … Dr.-Ing. / Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Flugfuhrung, Braunschweig. - Köln: DLR, 2017. - VI,129 S. : ill. - (Forschungsbericht; 2017-15). - Res. also Germ. - Bibliogr.: S.113-128. - ISSN 1434-8454
Шифр: (Pr 1120/2017-15) 02
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Kurzfassung ................................................... iii
Abstract ....................................................... iv
1 Introduction ............................................... 1
1.1 General Background ......................................... 1
1.2 Motivation ................................................. 2
1.3 Thesis Aims ................................................ 4
2 Scientific Background ...................................... 7
2.1 Stratospheric Ozone ........................................ 7
2.1.1 Chemistry ........................................... 7
2.1.2 Transport and Dynamics ............................. 14
2.2 Climate Change and Trends ................................. 15
2.2.1 Climate Change ..................................... 15
2.2.2 The Ozone Hole ..................................... 16
2.3 Halogenated Very Short-Lived Substances ................... 19
2.3.1 Sources and Emissions .............................. 20
2.3.2 Troposphere-Stratosphere Transport ................. 22
2.3.3 Stratospheric Bromine Loading ...................... 23
2.3.4 Influence on Ozone ................................. 24
2.3.5 Future Changes ..................................... 24
3 Model Description and Set-ups ............................. 25
3.1 The Model System EMAC ..................................... 25
3.2 A New Online Diagnostic: The Submodel TBUDGET ............. 27
3.3 Model Set-ups and Simulations ............................. 29
3.3.1 Model Set-ups ...................................... 29
3.3.2 Simulations ........................................ 31
4 Modelling selected VSLS, Bry and Ozone .................... 39
4.1 General Model Validation .................................. 39
4.2 Evaluating VSLS representation in EMAC .................... 44
4.2.1 EMAC versus Observations ........................... 44
4.2.2 Final Conclusion ................................... 65
4.3 Stratospheric Sensitivity to Changes in VSLS Surface
Emissions ................................................. 66
4.3.1 Bromine Loading .................................... 67
4.3.2 Ozone .............................................. 70
4.4 Summary ................................................... 72
5 The Impact of VSLS on Bromine and Ozone Loss .............. 73
5.1 Bromine Loading ........................................... 73
5.2 Ozone ..................................................... 75
5.3 Summary ................................................... 78
6 The Impact of Climate Change on VSLS Transport and
Chemistry ................................................. 81
6.1 Future Changes in Bromine Loading ......................... 81
6.2 Impact of VSLS on Stratospheric Ozone ..................... 88
6.3 Climatic Impact of a Potential VSLS Emission Scenario ..... 90
6.3.1 Bromine Loading .................................... 92
6.3.2 Impact on Ozone Loss ............................... 96
6.4 Implication of Changed VSLS Emissions on Radiative
Forcing ................................................... 99
6.5 Summary .................................................. 101
7 Summary and Conclusions .................................. 103
List of Figures ............................................... 109
List of Tables ................................................ 110
References .................................................... 111
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