 | Systems evaluation: methods, models, and applications / S.Liu et al. - Boca Raton: CRC Press, 2012. - xx, 237 p.: ill. - (Systems evaluation, prediction, and decision-making series). - Ref.: p.231-233. - Ind.: p.235-237. - ISBN 978-1-4200-8846-5
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Preface ...................................................... xiii
Acknowledgments ................................................ xv
Introduction .................................................. xvu
Authors ........................................................ xi
1 Common System Evaluation Methods and Models ................ 1
1.1 Introduction ............................................... 1
1.2 Qualitative Evaluation ..................................... 3
1.2.1 A Summary on Qualitative Evaluation ................. 3
1.2.2 Nominal Group Technique ............................. 5
1.2.3 Brainstorming ....................................... 5
1.2.4 Delphi .............................................. 8
1.2.4.1 Features ................................... 9
1.2.4.2 Methods Derived from Delphi ................ 9
1.2.4.3 Preparing Questionnaires .................. 12
1.2.4.4 Evaluation Process ........................ 15
1.2.4.5 Delphi Principles to Observe .............. 15
1.3 Index System for Evaluation ............................... 17
1.3.1 Determining Structure of Index System .............. 19
1.3.2 Statistical Analysis of Indicator Information ...... 20
1.3.3 Determining Values of Indicators ................... 21
1.3.3.1 Quantified Indicators ..................... 21
1.3.3.2 Normalization ............................. 22
1.3.4 Determining Indicator Weights ...................... 23
1.3.4.1 Least Squares Method ...................... 23
1.3.4.2 Eigenvector Method ........................ 23
1.3.4.3 Other Weighting Methods ................... 24
1.4 Comparative Evaluation and Logical Framework Approach ..... 24
1.4.1 Comparison Method for Main Indicators .............. 25
1.4.1.1 Method 1 .................................. 25
1.4.1.2 Method 2 .................................. 25
1.4.2 Logical Framework Approach ......................... 26
1.4.2.1 Basic Concept ............................. 26
1.4.2.2 Goal Levels ............................... 27
1.4.2.3 Vertical Logic of Causality ............... 28
1.4.2.4 Horizontal Logic .......................... 29
1.4.2.5 Verifying Indicators ...................... 29
1.4.2.6 Verification Method ....................... 30
1.4.2.7 Logical Framework Approach Used in
Postevaluation ............................ 30
1.5 Analytic Hierarchy Process ................................ 32
1.5.1 Hierarchical Structuring ........................... 32
1.5.2 Constructing Judgment Matrix ....................... 33
1.5.3 Single Level Ordering and Consistency Check ........ 34
1.5.4 Hierarchy Total Ordering and Consistency Check ..... 36
1.6 DEA Relative Efficiency Evaluation ........................ 39
1.6.1 DEA Efficiency Evaluation Index and C2R Model ...... 39
1.6.1.1 DEA Efficiency Evaluation Index ........... 39
1.6.1.2 C2R Design ................................ 40
1.6.2 DEA Validity Judgment .............................. 42
1.6.3 Improving DEA Validity ............................. 43
1.7 Chapter Summary ........................................... 44
2 Grey System Evaluation Models ............................. 45
2.1 Introduction .............................................. 45
2.2 Generalized Grey Incidences Model ......................... 46
2.2.1 Absolute Grey Incidence Model ...................... 46
2.2.2 Relative Grey Incidence Model ...................... 50
2.2.3 Synthetic Grey Incidence Model ..................... 52
2.3 Grey Incidence Models Based on Similarity and Nearness .... 53
2.4 Grey Evaluation Using Triangular Whitenization Functions .. 54
2.4.1 Triangular Whitenization Function of Moderate
Measure ............................................ 55
2.4.2 Evaluation Model Using End-Point Triangular
Whitenization Functions ............................ 56
2.4.3 Evaluation Model Using Center-Point Triangular
Whitenization Functions ............................ 57
2.5 Multiattribute Grey Target Decision Model ................. 58
2.5.1 Basic Concepts ..................................... 58
2.5.2 Construction of Matrix of Uniform Effect
Measures ........................................... 60
2.5.3 Construction of Matrix of Synthetic Effect
Measures ........................................... 63
2.5.4 Steps of Multiattribute Grey Target Assessment
Algorithm .......................................... 64
3 Postevaluation of Road-Bridge Construction: Case Study of
Lianxu Highway in China ................................... 67
3.1 Introduction .............................................. 67
3.1.1 Postevaluation ..................................... 67
3.1.1.1 Comparison of Feasibility Evaluation
and Preevaluation ......................... 68
3.1.1.2 Comparison with Midevaluation ............. 68
3.1.1.3 Comparison of Acceptance and Audit ........ 69
3.1.2 Lianxu Highway Project ............................. 69
3.1.2.1 Overview of Project ....................... 69
3.1.2.2 Design Parameters ......................... 71
3.2 Process Evaluation ........................................ 71
3.2.1 Preliminary Work and Evaluation .................... 71
3.2.2 Process Design ..................................... 72
3.2.2.1 Blueprint Design and General Information .. 72
3.2.2.2 Preparation of Tender Documents ........... 73
3.2.2.3 Project Implementation and Start of
Construction .............................. 73
3.2.2.4 Main Technical Indicators and
Evaluation of Changes ..................... 73
3.2.3 Implementation and Evaluation of Investment ........ 73
3.2.3.1 Investment Changes ........................ 73
3.2.3.2 Analysis of Investment Changes ............ 76
3.2.3.3 Financing Options ......................... 77
3.2.3.4 Analysis of Financing Costs ............... 77
3.2.4 Operating Conditions and Evaluation ................ 77
3.2.4.1 Forecast and Evaluation of Traffic ........ 77
3.2.4.2 Analysis of Vehicle Speed ................. 79
3.2.4.3 Evaluation of Structural Changes in
Traffic ................................... 79
3.2.4.4 Evaluation of Traffic Safety Management ... 79
3.2.5 Evaluation of Management, Support, and Service
Facilities ......................................... 80
3.2.5.1 Management ................................ 80
3.2.5.2 Support and Service Facilities ............ 81
3.3 Traffic Forecasting ....................................... 81
3.3.1 Basis .............................................. 81
3.3.2 Forecasting ........................................ 82
3.3.2.1 Based on Trend of High-Speed Flow to
Forecast .................................. 82
3.3.2.2 Based on Regional Transportation System
High-Speed Flow to Forecast ............... 82
3.3.2.3 Forecasting Impacts of Ports on Highway
Traffic ................................... 82
3.3.2.4 Forecasting Impacts of New Roads .......... 82
3.4 Financial and Economic Evaluation ......................... 84
3.4.1 Financial Evaluation ............................... 84
3.4.1.1 Main Parameters ........................... 84
3.4.1.2 Revenue and Costs ......................... 85
3.4.1.3 Financial Evaluation ...................... 85
3.4.2 Economic Evaluation ................................ 89
3.4.3 Comparisons of Feasibility Study and
Postevaluation ..................................... 90
3.4.3.1 Comparison of Financial Benefits .......... 90
3.4.3.2 Comparative Analysis of Economic
Benefits .................................. 92
3.5 Assessment of Environmental and Social Impacts ............ 93
3.5.1 Environmental Impacts .............................. 93
3.5.1.1 Evaluation of Environmental Management .... 93
3.5.1.2 Implementation of Environmental
Protection Measures ....................... 94
3.5.1.3 Conclusions of Survey ..................... 94
3.5.2 Social Impacts ..................................... 94
3.5.2.1 Division of Area of Coverage .............. 94
3.5.2.2 Economic Development Correlation of
Highway and Line Side Areas ............... 94
3.5.3 Economic Development ............................... 95
3.5.4 Macroeconomic Impact Analysis ...................... 96
3.5.4.1 Impact on Total Economy ................... 96
3.5.4.2 Effects on Economic Structure ............. 97
3.5.4.3 Effects on Environment and Society ........ 97
3.5.4.4 Local Compatibility Analysis .............. 97
3.6 Sustainability Evaluation of Project Objective ............ 97
3.6.1 Effects of External Conditions ..................... 97
3.6.1.1 Socioeconomic Development ................. 97
3.6.1.2 Highway Network Development ............... 97
3.6.1.3 Transportation Development ................ 97
3.6.1.4 Management System ......................... 97
3.6.1.5 Policies and Regulations .................. 98
3.6.1.6 Supporting Facilities ..................... 98
3.6.2 Effects of Internal Conditions ..................... 98
3.6.2.1 Operating Mechanism ....................... 98
3.6.2.2 Internal Management ....................... 98
3.6.2.3 Service Status ............................ 98
3.6.2.4 Impacts of Highway Tolls .................. 98
3.6.2.5 Impacts of Operation Conditions ........... 98
3.6.2.6 Impacts of Construction Quality ........... 98
3.6.3 Comprehensive Evaluation of Sustainability ......... 99
3.6.3.1 Evaluation Index .......................... 99
3.6.3.2 Determination of Index Weight ............. 99
3.6.3.3 Conclusion ................................ 99
3.6.4 Means for Realizing Sustainability ................. 99
3.7 Problems and Recommendations ............................. 100
3.7.1 Problems .......................................... 100
3.7.1.1 Defective Analysis of Effects on
Transfer, Induced Traffic Volume, and
Gap between Forecast and Actual Value .... 100
3.7.1.2 Inadequate Design Based on Engineering
Survey of Local Roads: Increased Design
Costs and Impacts on Progress ............ 100
3.7.1.3 Inadequate Funding Programs and
Municipal Matching Requirements .......... 101
3.7.1.4 Unreasonable Standards for Service
Facilities: Wastes of Resources .......... 102
3.7.1.5 Preliminary Test Section ................. 102
3.7.1.6 Inadequate Environmental Protection and
Pollution ................................ 102
3.7.1.7 Land Waste Caused by Defective
Selection Programs for Local Roads ....... 103
3.7.2 Recommendations ................................... 103
4 Efficiency Evaluations of Scientific and Technological
Activities ............................................... 105
4.1 Introduction ............................................. 105
4.2 Allocation Structure and Use Efficiency Analysis of
Research Expenditures .................................... 106
4.2.1 Allocation of Funds for Science and Technology
in China .......................................... 106
4.2.2 Conclusions and Recommendations ................... 113
4.2.2.1 Conclusions and Problems ................. 113
4.2.2.2 Considerations and Recommendations ....... 114
4.3 Efficiency Evaluation of University Scientific and
Technological Activities Based on DEA Model .............. 115
4.3.1 Index Selection ................................... 115
4.3.2 Evaluation ........................................ 146
4.3.3 Evaluation of Use of University Research Funds
by Region ......................................... 148
4.4 Evaluation of Regional Scientific and Technological
Strength: Jiangsu Province ............................... 118
4.4.1 Evaluation of Scientific and Technological
Strength of China Provinces ....................... 121
4.4.1.1 Devising Evaluation Index System ......... 121
4.4.1.2 Explanations of Indices .................. 121
4.4.1.3 Concrete Values of Evaluation Indices
for Scientific and Technological
Strength of Provinces .................... 123
4.4.1.4 Grey Clustering Evaluation of
Scientific and Technological Strength
of China Provinces ....................... 124
4.4.2 Evaluation of Scientific and Technological
Strengths of Prefecture-Level Cities in Jiangsu
Province .......................................... 133
4.4.2.1 Designing Evaluation Index System ........ 133
4.4.2.2 Explanations of Indices .................. 133
4.4.2.3 Concrete Values of Evaluation Indices .... 135
4.4.2.4 Grey Clustering Evaluation ............... 136
5 Evaluation of Energy Saving in China ..................... 141
5.1 Introduction ............................................. 141
5.2 Energy-Saving Effects of Technological Progress .......... 142
5.2.1 Extended Cobb-Douglas Production Function ......... 142
5.2.2 Data .............................................. 144
5.2.3 Empirical Research ................................ 148
5.2.4 Conclusion ........................................ 151
5.3 Energy-Saving Effect of Industrial Restructuring ......... 151
5.3.1 Decomposition of Energy Intensity ................. 152
5.3.2 Changes of Energy Intensity Caused by Industrial
Structure ......................................... 153
5.3.3 Grey Linear Programming Model for Analyzing
Industrial Restructuring Impact on Energy Saving .. 154
5.3.4 Industrial Restructuring .......................... 158
5.3.5 Conclusion ........................................ 172
5.4 Energy-Saving Effect of Development and Use of
Nonfossil Energy ......................................... 173
5.4.1 Energy Consumption Structure ...................... 174
5.4.2 Energy Consumption Structure Forecasting .......... 175
5.4.3 Conclusion ........................................ 176
5.5 Evaluation of Energy Policy .............................. 176
5.5.1 Model ............................................. 179
5.5.1.1 With and without Antitheses .............. 179
5.5.1.2 Linear Regression ........................ 180
5.5.2 Data .............................................. 180
5.5.3 Energy-Saving Effects of Energy Policies .......... 182
5.5.3.1 With and without Antitheses .............. 182
5.5.3.2 Linear Regression ........................ 184
5.6 Conclusion ............................................... 186
6 International Cooperation Project Selection .............. 189
6.1 Overview ................................................. 189
6.2 Demand for and Supply of International Cooperative
Key Technology in Jiangsu Province ....................... 191
6.2.1 Analysis of Demand ................................ 191
6.2.2 Analysis of Supply ................................ 193
6.2.3 Selection of Key Technologies for International
Cooperation by Leading Regional Industries .... 195
6.3 Demand and Supply Indices of International Cooperative
Key Technology ........................................... 196
6.3.1 The Principle of Index System Construction ........ 196
6.3.1.1 Integrity ................................ 197
6.3.1.2 Scientific Rationality ................... 197
6.3.1.3 Index System ............................. 197
6.3.1.4 Independence ............................. 197
6.3.1.5 Feasibility .............................. 197
6.3.1.6 Comparability ............................ 197
6.3.2 Evaluating Indices of Urgency and Possibility ..... 197
6.3.3 Weights of Urgency and Possibility Indices ........ 201
6.3.3.1 Determining Weights ...................... 201
6.3.3.2 Analysis of Urgency and Possibility
Index Weights ............................ 201
6.3.3.3 Relative Importance of Urgency and
Possibility Indices ...................... 202
6.4 Choosing Model Based on Grey Clustering with Fixed
Weight ................................................... 203
6.4.1 Methodology ....................................... 204
6.4.2 Priority Orders of Key Technology ................. 208
6.5 Selection of International Cooperative Key Technology .... 210
References ............................................... 231
Index ......................................................... 235
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