Preface ........................................................ xi
Acknowledgments .............................................. xiii
About the Author ............................................... xv
1 The Postmodern Impact Assessment and Problems of the Mind .. I
1.1 Key Terms .................................................. 2
1.2 Objectives ................................................. 2
1.3 Overview: Risk and impacts ................................. 3
1.3.1 Why Risk Assessments and Impact Assessments Are
Different ........................................... 7
1.3.2 Approaching the Impact Assessment ................... 8
1.4 Evolution of Impacts ....................................... 9
1.4.1 Susie's Lemonade Stand ............................. 11
1.4.1.1 The First 30 Seconds ...................... 12
1.4.1.2 The Second 30 Seconds ..................... 13
1.4.2 A Fundamental Flaw ................................. 16
1.4.2.1 Failure to Understand Breadth ............. 17
1.4.2.2 Failure to Align with Internal
Organizational Values and External Laws
and Regulations ........................... 17
1.4.2.3 A Lack of Larger Order and Taxonomy of
Impacts as Well as Their Deviations ....... 17
1.4.3 A Larger Problem ................................... 18
1.5 Reconsidering the Impact Analysis and Problems of the
Mind ...................................................... 22
1.6 Objects and Critical Thinking: Apple, Cabinets of
Curiosity, and a Dark Nostalgia ........................... 23
1.6.1 Objects in the Digital Age ......................... 25
1.6.2 Objects in Japan Today: A Different Worldview ...... 28
1.6.3 Objects in the Age of Enlightenment ................ 30
1.6.4 Applying Seba's Curiosities to Impact Assessments .. 32
1.6.5 A Dark Nostalgia ................................... 33
1.7 Conclusion ................................................ 35
1.8 Questions ................................................. 37
Endnotes .................................................. 38
2 Five Guiding Principles for Postmodern Impact
Assessments ............................................... 41
2.1 Key Terms ................................................. 42
2.2 Objectives ................................................ 42
2.3 Overview: A Fundamental Flaw and the Five Guiding
Principles ................................................ 42
2.4 Looking Deeper at the Evolution of Impacts ................ 43
2.4.1 Postmodernism and the Evolution of Impacts ......... 45
2.4.2 Other Problems Surrounding Impact Assessments ...... 47
2.5 The BP Oil Spill of 2010: A Postmodern Failure ............ 48
2.6 Stakeholders in an Impact Assessment ...................... 51
2.7 Five Guiding Principles for Postmodern Impact
Assessments ............................................... 52
2.7.1 Understanding the Second Phase in an Emergency
Management Program: Conducting a Potential Impact
Assessment ......................................... 52
2.7.2 The Second Phase-Five Guiding Principles for
Postmodern Impact Assessments ...................... 53
2.7.2.1 The First Box - Establish the Impact
Horizon ................................... 56
2.7.2.2 The Second Box - Align Measures to Core
Values .................................... 56
2.7.2.3 The Third Box - Consider and Align
National and State Laws and Industry
Regulations ............................... 58
2.7.2.4 The Fourth Box - Apply Rigorous Data
Analysis .................................. 60
2.7.2.5 The Fifth Box - Document Deviations and
Overrides ................................. 62
2.7.3 Summary of the Five Principles of Potential
Impacts Analysis ................................... 64
2.8 Revisiting: Postmodernism, Revolution, and the Public
Sector .................................................... 65
2.9 Summary ................................................... 68
2.10 Questions ................................................. 72
Endnotes .................................................. 72
3 The First Principle: Establish the Impact Horizon ......... 73
3.1 Key Terms ................................................. 74
3.2 Objectives ................................................ 74
3.3 Overview: A Fundamental Flaw and the Impact Horizon ....... 75
3.4 Taking a Wide-Angle View of Potential Impacts ............. 82
3.4.1 Impacts and Criticality ............................ 83
3.4.2 The Impact Horizon and Public Perception ........... 85
3.5 The Amazon Cloud Computing Outage of 2011 ................. 89
3.6 The Importance of Stakeholders and Establishing the
Impact Horizon ............................................ 92
3.6.1 The Business Continuity Perspective ................ 92
3.6.2 The Emergency Management Perspective ............... 92
3.6.2.1 The Stafford Act and Emergency
Management ................................ 93
3.6.3 The Counterterrorism Perspective ................... 94
3.7 The Public/Private Impact Horizon-Mixed Impacts from the
2008 Financial Crisis ..................................... 98
3.8 Delivering the Impact Horizon ............................ 100
3.9 Summary .................................................. 103
3.10 Questions ................................................ 105
Endnotes ................................................. 105
4 The Second Principle: Align Impact Measures to Core
Values ................................................... 107
4.1 Key Terms ................................................ 108
4.2 Objectives ............................................... 108
4.3 Overview: An Underlying Problem and the Alignment to
Core Values .............................................. 108
4.4 Postmodern Culture and the Importance of Messaging from
the Core during a Crisis ................................. 112
4.5 Hurricane Katrina, August 2005: Off Message and Off
Mission .................................................. 114
4.6 The Joplin, Missouri, Tornado of 2011: Off Message and
Off Mission .............................................. 122
4.7 The Oslo Terror Attacks: On Message and On Mission ....... 128
4.8 In the Private Sector-Core Values and Measurable
Impacts .................................................. 131
4.9 Delivering Alignment to Core Values ...................... 133
4.10 Why the Second Principle Matters ......................... 136
4.11 Summary .................................................. 139
4.12 Questions ................................................ 140
Endnotes ................................................. 141
5 The Third Principle: Consider and Align National and
State Laws and Industry Regulations ...................... 143
5.1 Key Terms ................................................ 144
5.2 Objectives ............................................... 144
5.3 Overview: Addressing Underlying Problems with Federal
and State Laws and Industry Regulations .................. 144
5.4 The Third Principle and the Private Sector ............... 148
5.4.1 Standards and Regulations ......................... 148
5.4.2 In the Business Arena ............................. 149
5.4.3 In Healthcare ..................................... 150
5.4.4 New Orleans, August 23,2005-Katrina ............... 150
5.4.5 Know the Terrain .................................. 151
5.4.6 HIPAA50I0 ......................................... 151
5.4.7 NCPDP ............................................. 152
5.4.8 The Dodd-Frank Act ................................ 152
5.5 Deliverables in Compliance with the Third Principle ...... 154
5.6 Postmodern Culture: Legal Challenges and the Regulatory
Climate .................................................. 158
5.6.1 About Posse Comitatus ............................. 161
5.7 Why the Third Principle Matters .......................... 166
5.8 Summary .................................................. 166
5.9 Questions ................................................ 168
Endnotes ................................................. 169
6 Taking a Second Look at the Third Principle .............. 171
6.1 Key Terms ................................................ 172
6.2 Objectives ............................................... 172
6.3 Overview ................................................. 172
6.4 Hurricane Irene, 2011: A Case Study in Legal Action and
Regulatory Response ...................................... 175
6.4.1 Hurricane Irene - On Message ...................... 182
6.4.2 The Tale of Two Hurricanes - A Critical
Comparison ........................................ 183
6.5 The Backdrop - A Nation in Conflict over Freedom and
Safety ................................................... 184
6.5.1 Applying Resources to Irene Based on Potential
Impacts While Following the Third Principle ....... 184
6.5.2 A Thorny Problem .................................. 191
6.5.3 A Low - Profile, Highly Tactical Response ......... 192
6.5.4 Negative Public Perception ........................ 193
6.5.5 Changes in the Military Structure ................. 196
6.5.6 In Summary: Irene and Other Impacts ............... 200
6.6 Summary .................................................. 201
6.7 Questions ................................................ 202
Endnotes ................................................. 202
7 The Fourth Principle: Apply Rigorous Data ................ 205
7.1 Key Terms ................................................ 206
7.2 Objectives ............................................... 206
7.3 Overview: Applying the Second and Third Principles and
Creating a, Range of Criticality Values Based on
a Logical Order and a Common Taxonomy .................... 207
7.4 The Impact Assessment as a Business Case ................. 210
7.5 Establishing Ranges of Criticality Values Using Logic
and the Weighted Scores .................................. 211
7.5.1 Getting Started with Data Normalization in the
Weighted Criticality Score Values ................. 212
7.6 The Range of Criticality Score Values and the Placement
of Objects in the Range .................................. 213
7.6.1 Create a Range of Criticality ..................... 213
7.6.2 Apply the Weighted Score to Individual Objects .... 214
7.7 Applying Common Logic .................................... 215
7.7.1 Core Objects and Metadata ......................... 218
7.8 Applying a Common Taxonomy ............................... 219
7.8.1 A Proposed Taxonomy Framework ..................... 225
7.8.1.1 Location ................................. 225
7.8.1.2 Superstructure Systems ................... 226
7.8.1.3 Functions ................................ 227
7.8.1.4 Processes ................................ 227
7.8.1.5 Subprocesses, People, and Applications ... 229
7.8.1.6 Finding the Point of Measure ............. 230
7.9 Using Big Data to Create Ranges of Criticality -
A Better Approach ........................................ 231
7.9.1 Generating the Weighted Score and Ranges of
Criticality with Big Data ......................... 232
7.9.2 The Set of Objects as Big Data .................... 235
7.9.3 What Is an Object, and How to Determine
Criticality Based on the Conjunction of Expert
Interviews and Big Data ........................... 236
7.9.4 Back to the Weighted Score and the Rigorous
Application of Data ............................... 240
7.9.5 Creating a Range of Criticality Based on Big
Data .............................................. 242
7.10 Summary .................................................. 243
7.11 Questions ................................................ 244
Endnotes ................................................. 244
8 The Fifth Principle: Document Deviations and Overrides ... 245
8.1 Key Terms ................................................ 246
8.2 Objectives ............................................... 246
8.3 Overview: Documented Deviations and Overrides ............ 246
8.4 Why Deviations and Overrides Occur ....................... 249
8.5 Personal Biases .......................................... 252
8.6 Expert Opinion ........................................... 257
8.7 Cultural Issues .......................................... 261
8.7.1 International Law ................................. 262
8.7.2 Cultural Perspectives: India ...................... 265
8.7.3 Cultural Perspectives: Japan ...................... 266
8.7.4 Cultural Perspectives: Israel ..................... 267
8.7.5 International Finance ............................. 270
8.8 Summary .................................................. 271
8.9 Questions ................................................ 273
Endnotes ................................................. 273
9 Into the Uncanny Valley .................................. 275
9.1 Key Terms ................................................ 276
9.2 Objectives ............................................... 276
9.3 Overview: Potential Impact Assessments and Realism ....... 276
9.3.1 A Larger Problem .................................. 279
9.3.2 Realism ........................................... 283
9.4 The Clear Choice during Turbulent Times .................. 285
9.4.1 The Choice ........................................ 290
9.5 The Uncanny Valley ....................................... 292
9.5.1 Studies in the Uncanny Valley ..................... 293
9.5.2 The Otaku's Curation of the Uncanny ............... 298
9.5.3 The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake ........................ 300
9.5.4 The Unexpected Impact - A Sea of Debris ........... 305
9.5.5 Insurrections and Earthquakes ..................... 307
9.6 The Ethical Choices We Must Make ......................... 307
9.7 Shepherding the Organization through the Uncanny Valley .. 310
9.8 Conclusion ............................................... 312
9.9 Questions ................................................ 315
Endnotes ................................................. 315
Index ......................................................... 317
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