Preface to the First Edition .................................. xix
Acknowledgments from the First Edition ...................... xxiii
Preface to the Second Edition ............................... xxvii
Acknowledgments for the Second Edition ....................... xxix
1 Sustainable Energy: The Engine of Sustainable Development .... 1
1.1 Sustainable Energy: The Engine of Sustainable
Development ............................................. 2
1.1 The Energy Portfolio ................................... 11
1.1 Denning Energy: Scientific and Engineering
Foundations ............................................ 14
1.2 Aspects of Energy Production and Consumption ........... 20
1.3 National and Global Patterns of Energy Supply and
Utilization ............................................ 26
1.4 Environmental Effects of Energy: Gaining
Understanding .......................................... 30
1.5 Confronting the Energy-Prosperity-Environmental
Dilemma: Sustainability and Alternative Proposals ...... 39
1.6 Mathematical Representations of Sustainability ......... 44
1.9 The Rest of This Book .................................. 46
Problems .................................................... 47
References .................................................. 48
2 Estimation and Evaluation of Energy Resources ............... 51
2.1 Units of Measurement: Energy and Power ................. 52
2.2 Comparison of Different Forms of Energy ................ 56
2.3 The Energy Life Cycle .................................. 60
2.4 Estimation and Valuation of Fossil Mineral Fuels,
Especially Petroleum ................................... 70
2.4.1 Asking the right questions and avoiding the
unanswerable ones ............................... 70
2.4.2 Perspectives from mineral geology ............... 71
2.4.3 Two interpretations of hydrocarbon fuel
economics ....................................... 72
2.4.4 Categories of reserves .......................... 80
2.4.5 Forecasting mineral fuel prices and supplies .... 82
2.4.6 Geopolitical factors and energy supply
"crises" ........................................ 87
2.4.1 Estimation and Valuation of Nuclear Fuel
Resources ....................................... 90
2.6 Estimation and Valuation of Renewable Energy
Resources .............................................. 92
2.6.1 Introduction and historical notes ............... 92
2.6.2 Renewable energy resource assessment ............ 94
2.6.3 Environmental impacts ........................... 96
2.6.4 Technology development and deployment ........... 97
2.6.5 The importance of storage ....................... 98
2.6.6 Connecting renewables to hydrogen ............... 98
2.6.7 The future of renewable energy .................. 99
2.6.8 Additional resources ........................... 100
2.7 Lessons for Sustainable Development ................... 100
2.8 Summary and Conclusions ............................... 101
Problems ................................................... 102
References ................................................. 103
3 Technical Performance: Allowability, Efficiency,
Production Rates ........................................... 107
3.1 The Relation of Technical Performance to
Sustainability ........................................ 108
3.2 An Introduction to Methods of Thermodynamic Analysis .. 110
3.2.1 Allowability, efficiency, and the Second Law ... 110
3.2.2 More about entropy ............................. 112
3.2.3 Analysis of ideal (Carnot) heat engines ........ 118
3.2.4 Analysis of real-world (irreversible) heat
engines ........................................ 122
3.3 The Importance of Rate Processes in Energy
Conversion ............................................ 136
3.4 Chemical Rate Processes ............................... 138
3.5 The Physical Transport of Heat ........................ 142
3.5.1 Foundations for quantitative analysis .......... 142
3.5.2 Thermal conduction ............................. 144
3.5.3 Convective heat transfer ....................... 146
3.5.4 Radiative heat transmission .................... 147
3.5.5 Heat transfer by tandem mechanisms ............. 150
3.6 Energy Requirements for Gas Separation Processes ...... 152
3.7 Use and Abuse of Time Scales .......................... 154
3.8 Energy Resources and Energy Conversion: Fertile
Common Ground ......................................... 155
Problems ................................................... 156
References ................................................. 157
4 Local, Regional, and Global Environmental Effects of
Energy ..................................................... 161
4.1 How Energy Systems Interact with the Environment ...... 162
4.1.1 Known and potential environmental threats ...... 162
4.1.2 Origin of harmful agents ....................... 165
4.1.3 Length and time scales for environmental
impacts ........................................ 168
4.2 Adverse Environmental Effects over Local and
Regional Length Scales ................................ 173
4.2.1 Ambient air pollution .......................... 173
4.2.2 Adulteration of soil, water, and indoor air .... 181
4.2.3 Transport and transformation of air, ground,
and water contamination ........................ 183
4.3 Global Climate Change: Environmental Consequences
over Planetary Length Scales .......................... 184
4.3.1 Introduction ................................... 184
4.3.2 Basic science of the greenhouse effect ......... 187
4.3.3 Energy and the greenhouse effect ............... 194
4.3.4 Greenhouse consequences: Consensus, unknowns,
misconceptions ................................. 199
4.3.5 Technological and policy response strategies:
Evolutionary and revolutionary ................. 207
4.4 Attribution of Environmental Damage to Energy
Utilization ........................................... 216
4.4.1 Diagnosing receptor jeopardy and injury ........ 217
4.4.2 Source identification .......................... 222
4.4.3 Risk and uncertainty ........................... 223
4.4.4 Simulation modeling to estimate environmental
externality costs .............................. 224
4.5 Methods of Environmental Protection ................... 227
4.5.1 Energy and the environment as an ensemble of
coupled complex systems ........................ 227
4.5.2 Earth system ecology as a working paradigm ..... 228
4.5.3 Public policy instruments ...................... 230
4.5.4 Technological remedies ......................... 232
4.6. Environmental Benefits of Energy ...................... 233
4.6.1 Pollution prevention and environmental
restoration .................................... 233
4.6.2 Social and economic foundations for
environmental stewardship ...................... 233
4.7 Implications for Sustainable Energy ................... 233
4.7.1 Environmental footprints as sustainability
metrics ........................................ 233
4.7.2 The unusual challenge of global climate
change ......................................... 234
Appendix: Lessons from S02 Emissions Trading ............... 235
Problems ................................................... 239
References ................................................. 242
5 Project Economic Evaluation ................................. 249
5.1 Introduction .......................................... 250
5.2 Time Value of Money Mechanics ......................... 252
5.2.1 Basic aspects .................................. 252
5.2.2 Application to a typical cash-flow scenario .... 255
5.2.3 Derivation of relations ........................ 258
5.2.4 Pitfalls, errors, and ambiguities .............. 258
5.3 Current- versus Constant-Dollar Comparisons ........... 262
5.4 Simple Payback ........................................ 266
5.5 Economy of Scale and Learning Curve ................... 267
5.6 Allowing for Uncertainty .............................. 271
5.6.1 Overview ....................................... 271
5.6.2 Analytic uncertainty propagation ............... 271
5.6.3 The Monte Carlo method ......................... 272
5.6.4 Decision tree method ........................... 273
5.7 Accounting for Externalities .......................... 273
5.8 Energy Accounting ..................................... 280
5.9 Modeling beyond the Project Level ..................... 282
5.10 Summary ............................................... 283
Appendix: Derivation of Relations for Levelized Cost ....... 285
Problems ................................................... 286
References ................................................. 290
Websites of Interest ....................................... 292
6 Energy Systems and Sustainability Metrics .................. 293
6.1 Introduction and Historical Notes ..................... 293
6.2 Energy from a Systems Perspective ..................... 298
6.3 Systems Analysis Approaches ........................... 306
6.3.1 Life-cycle analysis ............................ 309
6.3.2 Simulation models .............................. 312
6.3.3 Risk-based models .............................. 313
6.4 Measures of Sustainability ............................ 317
6.4.1 General indicators of sustainability ........... 318
6.4.2 Categories of indicators ....................... 320
6.5 Drivers of Societal Change ............................ 322
6.6 Some General Principles of Sustainable Development
Problems .............................................. 328
References ................................................. 329
Websites of Interest ....................................... 332
7 Energy, Water, and Land Use ................................ 333
7.1 Linkages between Energy, Water, and Land Use .......... 333
7.2 Major Systems, Interactions, and Trends ............... 336
7.3 Major Planetary Cycles ................................ 339
7.3.1 Water cycle .................................... 340
7.3.2 Carbon cycle ................................... 343
7.3.3 Nitrogen cycle ................................. 345
7.3.4 Climate cycles ................................. 347
7.4 Overview of Land-Use Issues ........................... 351
7.4.1 Land-use patterns .............................. 351
7.4.2 Human development .............................. 351
7.4.3 Agriculture and forestry ....................... 354
7.4.4 Monitoring land-use changes .................... 357
7.5 Overview of Ocean-Use Issues .......................... 360
7.5.1 Physical characteristics of the oceans ......... 360
7.5.2 Food chains .................................... 363
7.5.1 Fisheries and aquaculture ...................... 365
7.5.4 Monitoring ocean changes ....................... 366
7.6 Implications for Sustainable Energy ................... 366
Problems ................................................... 368
References ................................................. 369
Websites of Interest ....................................... 371
8 Fossil Fuels and Fossil Energy ............................. 373
8.1 Introduction .......................................... 374
8.1.1 Definition and types of fossil fuels ........... 374
8.1.2 Historical and current contributions of
fossil fuels to human progress ................. 377
8.1.3 Sustainability: Challenges and opportunities ... 380
8.2 The Fossil-Fuel Resource Base ......................... 381
8.2.1 How long will fossil fuels last? ............... 381
8.2.2 "Unconventional" naturally occurring fossil
fuels ......................................... 382
8.2.3 Fossil resources and sustainability ............ 384
8.3 Harvesting Energy and Energy Products from Fossil
Fuels ................................................. 384
8.3.1 Exploration, discovery, and extraction of
fuels .......................................... 384
8.3.2 Fuel storage and transportation ................ 384
8.3.3 Fuel conversion ................................ 385
8.3.4 Fuel combustion ............................... 396
8.3.5 Direct generation of electricity: Fuel cells ... 402
8.3.6 Manufacture of chemicals and other products .... 409
8.4 Environmental Impacts ................................. 409
8.4.1 Pollutant sources and remedies: The fuel
itself ......................................... 409
8.4.2 Pollutant sources and remedies: Combustion
pathologies .................................... 412
8.4.3 Pollutant sources and remedies: Carbon
management ..................................... 414
8.5 Geopolitical and Sociological Factors ................. 418
8.5.1 Globalization of fossil energy sources ......... 418
8.5.2 Equitable access, revenue scaffolds, American
Graffiti ....................................... 420
8.6 Economics of Fossil Energy ............................ 423
8.7 Some Principles for Evaluating Fossil and Other
Energy Technology Options ............................. 429
8.8 Emerging Technologies ................................. 435
8.9 Conclusion: Why Are Fossil Fuels Important to
Sustainable Energy? ................................... 442
Problems .............................................. 443
References ................................................. 443
9 Nuclear Power .............................................. 447
9.1 Nuclear History ....................................... 448
9.2 Physics ............................................... 450
9.3 Nuclear Reactors ...................................... 451
9.4 Burning and Breeding .................................. 454
9.5 Nuclear Power Economics ............................... 455
9.6 Nuclear Power Plant Accidents ......................... 457
9.7 Reactor Safety ........................................ 464
9.8 Nuclear Reactor Technologies .......................... 466
9.8.1 Light-water reactors (LWR) ..................... 467
9.8.2 RBMK reactors .................................. 470
9.8.3 Heavy-water-cooled technologies ................ 474
9.8.4 Gas-cooled reactor technologies ................ 474
9.8.5 Liquid-metal reactor technologies .............. 477
9.9 Actinide Burning ...................................... 479
9.10 Advanced Reactors ..................................... 481
9.11 Nuclear Power Fuel Resources .......................... 481
9.12 Fuel Cycle ............................................ 482
9.12.1 Uranium mining ................................. 483
9.12.2 Uranium milling ................................ 484
9.12.3 Conversion ..................................... 484
9.12.4 Enrichment ..................................... 485
9.12.5 Fuel fabrication ............................... 486
9.12.6 Spent fuel ..................................... 486
9.12.7 Reprocessing ................................... 486
9.12.8 High-level wastes (HLW) disposal ............... 488
9.13 Fusion Energy ......................................... 492
9.13.1 Introduction ................................... 492
9.13.2 Why is fusion more difficult than fission? ..... 493
9.13.3 Magnetic fusion energy ......................... 495
9.13.4 Inertial fusion energy ......................... 496
9.13.5 Prospects for the future ....................... 497
9.14 Future Prospects for Nuclear Power .................... 499
Problems ................................................... 500
References ................................................. 500
Additional Resources ....................................... 502
10 Biomass Energy ............................................. 503
10.1 Characterizing the Biomass Resource ................... 504
10.1.1 Denning biomass ................................ 504
10.1.2 Renewability indices and biomass resources ..... 507
10.2 Biomass Relevance to Energy Production ................ 510
10.2.1 Utilization options ............................ 510
10.2.2 Advantages and disadvantages ................... 512
10.2.3 More on resources .............................. 514
10.3 Chemical and Physical Properties Relevant to Energy
Production ............................................ 517
10.4 Biofuels Production: Policy Incentives ................ 520
10.5 Thermal Conversion of Biomass ......................... 521
10.5.1 Biomass to electricity ......................... 521
10.5.2 Biomass to fuels ............................... 526
10.6 Bioconversion ......................................... 528
10.6.1 Introduction ................................... 528
10.6.2 Biogas ......................................... 528
10.6.3 Fermentation ethanol from corn and cellulosic
biomass ........................................ 529
10.6.4 Synfuels from biomass gasification ............. 532
10.7 Environmental Issues .................................. 532
10.8 Economics ............................................. 535
10.9 Research and Development Opportunities ................ 536
10.10 Disruptive Technology ................................ 537
10.11 Summary .............................................. 540
Problems ................................................... 540
References ................................................. 541
Websites of Interest ....................................... 544
11 Geothermal Energy .......................................... 545
11.1 Characterization of Geothermal Resource Types ......... 546
11.1.1 Definition in general .......................... 546
11.1.2 Natural hydrothermal systems ................... 550
11.1.3 Geopressured systems ........................... 552
11.1.4 Hot dry rock (enhanced geothermal systems) ..... 553
11.1.5 Magma .......................................... 554
11.1.6 Ultra-low-grade systems ........................ 555
11.1.7 Markets for geothermal energy .................. 555
11.2 Geothermal Resource Size and Distribution ............. 558
11.2.1 Overall framework and terminology .............. 558
11.2.2 Quality issues ................................. 559
11.2.3 Resource base and reserve estimates ............ 560
11.3 Practical Operation and Equipment for Recovering
Energy ................................................ 563
11.3.1 Drilling and field development ................. 563
11.3.2 Reservoir fluid production ..................... 565
11.3.3 Nonelectric, direct-heat utilization ........... 569
11.3.4 Electric power generation ...................... 573
11.3.5 Equipment ...................................... 577
11.3.6 Power-cycle performance ........................ 581
11.4 Sustainability Attributes ............................. 583
11.4.1 Reservoir lifetime issues ...................... 583
11.4.2 Environmental impacts .......................... 585
11.4.3 Dispatchable heat and power delivery ........... 586
11.4.4 Suitability for developing countries ........... 587
11.4.5 Potential for C02 reduction and pollution
prevention ..................................... 587
11.5 Status of Geothermal Technology Today ................. 588
11.5.1 Hydrothermal ................................... 588
11.5.2 Advanced systems ............................... 592
11.6 Competing in Today's Energy Markets ................... 604
11.7 Research and Development Advances Needed .............. 607
11.8 Potential for the Long Term ........................... 609
Problems ................................................... 610
References ................................................. 612
Websites of Interest ....................................... 618
12 Hydropower ................................................. 619
12.1 Overview of Hydropower ................................ 619
12.2 Hydropower Resource Assessment ........................ 622
12.3 Basic Energy Conversion Principles .................... 625
12.4 Conversion Equipment and Civil Engineering
Operations ............................................ 628
12.4.1 Civil engineering aspects of dam construction
and waterway management ........................ 628
12.4.2 Turbines as energy converters .................. 629
12.5 Sustainability Attributes ............................. 632
12.6 Status of Hydropower Technology Today ................. 636
12.6.1 Economic issues ................................ 636
12.6.2 Potential for growth ........................... 637
12.6.3 Advanced technology needs ...................... 638
Problems ................................................... 640
References ................................................. 641
Websites of Interest ....................................... 643
13 Solar Energy ............................................... 645
13.1 General Characteristics of Solar Energy ............... 646
13.2 Resource Assessment ................................... 647
13.3 Passive and Active Solar Thermal Energy for
Buildings ............................................. 656
13.3.1 Motivation and general issues .................. 656
13.3.2 Passive systems ................................ 658
13.3.3 Active systems ................................. 660
13.3.4 Economic and policy issues ..................... 663
13.4 Solar Thermal Electric Systems: Concentrating Solar
Power (CSP) ........................................... 665
13.4.1 Fundamentals and options ....................... 665
13.4.2 Power tower: Central receiver systems .......... 666
13.4.3 Parabolic troughs .............................. 668
13.4.4 Dish-engine systems ............................ 672
13.4.5 Current status and future potential of CSP ..... 674
13.5 Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Systems ....................... 677
13.5.1 Solid-state physical chemistry fundamentals .... 678
13.5.2 Performance limits and design options .......... 680
13.5.3 Silica-based systems (crystalline and
amorphous) ..................................... 683
13.5.4 Copper indium diselenide (CIS) ................. 684
13.5.5 Cadmium telluride (CdTe) ....................... 686
13.5.6 Current status and future potential of PV ...... 686
13.6 Sustainability Attributes ............................. 689
13.7 Summary and Prognosis ................................. 691
Problems ................................................... 692
References ................................................. 694
Websites of Interest ....................................... 696
14 Ocean Wave, Tide, Current, and Thermal Energy Conversion ... 697
14.1 Introduction .......................................... 697
14.2 Energy from the Tides and Currents .................... 700
14.2.1 Impoundment-type tidal ......................... 700
14.2.2 Current-powered systems, tidal and otherwise ... 704
14.3 Energy from the Waves: Overview ....................... 704
14.4 Energy from Temperature Differences ................... 708
14.4.1 Overview ....................................... 708
14.4.2 Performance limits ............................. 708
14.4.3 OTEC technology ................................ 711
44.5 Economic Prospects .................................... 712
14.6 Environmental and Sustainability Considerations ....... 714
14.7 The Ocean as an Externalities Sink .................... 715
14.8 Current Status and Future Prospects ................... 715
Appendix: Constants and Conversion Factors ................. 716
Problems ................................................... 717
References ................................................. 718
Websites of Interest ....................................... 720
15 Wind Energy ................................................ 721
15.1 Introduction and Historical Notes ..................... 722
15.1.1 Introduction ................................... 722
15.1.2 Historical notes ............................... 723
15.2 Wind Resources ........................................ 726
15.2.1 Wind quality ................................... 728
15.2.2 Variation of wind speed with elevation ......... 729
15.2.3 Air density .................................... 732
15.2.4 Maximum wind-turbine efficiency: The Betz
limit .......................................... 733
15.3 Wind Machinery and Generating Systems ................. 736
15.3.1 Overview ....................................... 736
15.3.2 Rotor blade assembly ........................... 739
15.3.3 Tower .......................................... 739
15.3.4 Nacelle components.............................. 740
15.3.1 Balance-of-station subsystems .................. 740
15.3.6 System design challenges ....................... 740
15.4 Wind-Turbine Rating ................................... 741
15.5 Wind-Power Economics .................................. 742
15.6 Measures of Sustainability ............................ 745
15.6.1 Net energy analysis ............................ 745
15.6.2 Cost of externalities .......................... 746
15.6.3 Environmental impact of wind power ............. 746
15.7 Current Status and Future Prospects ................... 748
Appendix: Conversion Factors Relevant to Wind Power ........ 751
Problems ................................................... 752
References ................................................. 754
Websites of Interest ....................................... 755
16 Energy Carriers: Electric Power, Hydrogen Fuel, Other? ..... 757
16.1 Introduction and Historical Perspectives .............. 757
16.1.1 Growth of the electric generation industry ..... 760
16.1.2 Life-cycle tracking of electric energy uses .... 766
16.1.3 Overall efficiency of primary energy usage ..... 768
16.2 Electricity as an Energy Carrier ...................... 770
16.2.1 Electric energy ................................ 770
16.2.2 Centralized energy generation .................. 771
16.2.3 Electric power generation ...................... 772
16.2.4 Environmental effects of electricity
production ..................................... 774
16.2.5 Siting requirements for power plants ........... 777
16.2.6 Electricity economics .......................... 780
16.3 Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier ......................... 782
16.3.1 Hydrogen production ............................ 784
16.3.2 Hydrogen safety ................................ 789
16.3.3 Hydrogen storage and distribution .............. 791
16.3.4 Future opportunities ........................... 792
16.4 Sustainability Issues ................................. 792
Problems ................................................... 796
References ................................................. 797
Websites of Interest ....................................... 798
17 Energy Management: Storage, Transportation, and
Distribution ............................................... 800
17.1 Overview of Energy Management Systems ................. 800
17.2 Connected Efficiencies and Energy Chains .............. 805
17.3 Modes of Energy Storage ............................... 808
17.3.1 General characteristics ........................ 808
17.3.2 Energy storage technologies .................... 812
17.3.1 17.4 Energy Transmission ....................... 827
17.4.1 General characteristics of energy
transmission systems ........................... 827
17.4.2 Oil transport .................................. 828
17.4.3 Natural gas transport .......................... 829
17.4.4 Coal transport ................................. 833
17.4.5 Electric power transmission .................... 833
17.5 Energy Distribution Systems ........................... 837
17.5.1 General characteristics of central versus
distributed systems ............................ 837
17.5.2 Combined heat and power opportunities .......... 842
17.5.3 Applications to renewable energy systems and
hybrids ........................................ 842
17.6 Ways of Organizing the Electric Economy ............... 842
17.6.1 Demand-side management (DSM) and distributed
generation ..................................... 843
17.6.2 Electricity transmission and distribution and
economic deregulation .......................... 844
17.6.3 An example of electric industry planning
using multiattribute assessment tools .......... 845
17.6.4 The need for more dynamic utilization of
transmission and distribution capacity ......... 849
17.7 Energy Market Impacts on Electricity Generation
Options ............................................... 851
17.8 Sustainability Attributes ............................. 854
17.8.1 Improved resource utilization .................. 854
17.8.2 Environmental, safety, and health concerns ..... 854
17.8.3 Economic and operational attributes ............ 855
17.9 Opportunities for Advancement of Sustainable Energy
Infrastructures ....................................... 856
Problems ................................................... 857
References ................................................. 860
Websites of Interest ....................................... 862
18 Transportation Services .................................... 865
18.1 Introduction and Historical Perspectives .............. 865
18.2 Elements of the Transportation System ................. 874
18.3 Transportation Fuels and the Fuel Cycle ............... 877
18.4 Personal Vehicles ..................................... 882
18.4.1 Historical perspectives ........................ 882
18.4.2 Looking forward ................................ 885
18.5 Life-Cycle Comparison of Vehicle Alternatives for
Passenger Road Transport .............................. 887
18.6 Freight Vehicles ...................................... 894
18.7 Public Transit, Interurban, and Intercontinental
Transport ............................................. 896
18.8 Motorization Trends ................................... 899
18.9 Sustainability Issues ................................. 901
Problems ................................................... 903
References ................................................. 903
Websites of Interest ....................................... 905
19 Industrial Energy Usage .................................... 907
19.1 Introduction and Historical Perspectives .............. 907
19.2 Life-Cycle Analysis and Design for Sustainability ..... 911
19.3 Metals Industries ..................................... 914
19.4 Cement and Lime Industries ............................ 916
19.5 Chemical Industries ................................... 917
19.6 Forest Products and Agriculture ....................... 919
19.7 Waste Management Industries ........................... 920
19.8 Sustainability Issues ................................. 921
Problems ................................................... 925
References ................................................. 925
Websites of Interest ....................................... 926
20 Commercial and Residential Buildings ....................... 927
20.1 Introduction and Historical Perspectives .............. 927
20.2 Life-Cycle Analysis ................................... 931
20.3 Residential Buildings ................................. 936
20.3.1 Design ......................................... 936
20.3.2 Efficiency ..................................... 940
20.4 Commercial Buildings .................................. 941
20.4.1 Design ......................................... 941
20.4.2 Efficiency ..................................... 945
20.5 Indoor Air Quality .................................... 947
20.6 Sustainability Issues ................................. 948
Problems ................................................... 950
References ................................................. 950
Websites of Interest ....................................... 951
21 Synergistic Complex Systems ................................ 953
21.1 Introduction and Historical Notes ..................... 954
21.2 The Complex Systems View .............................. 957
21.2.1 Expert panels .................................. 958
21.2.2 Partial informational models ................... 959
21.2.3 Decision analysis techniques ................... 964
21.2.4 Negotiation .................................... 967
21.2.5 How are decisions really made? ................. 968
21.3 Some Case Studies ..................................... 969
21.3.1 Beyond the Limits (Meadows, Meadows, and
Randers, 1992) ................................. 970
21.3.2 Which World? (Hammond, 1998) ................... 975
21.3.3 MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy
of Global Change: Integrated Global System
Model .......................................... 976
21.3.4 C-ROADS climate policy model ................... 979
21.3.1 Transitional Pathways .......................... 980
21.5 The Challenge to Society .............................. 989
Problems ................................................... 992
References ................................................. 993
Websites of Interest ....................................... 995
22 Choosing among Options ..................................... 997
Conversion Factors ........................................... 1001
List of Acronyms ............................................. 1005
Index ........................................................ 1011
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