Foreword ....................................................... xv
Preface ...................................................... xvii
Abbreviations & Acronyms ...................................... xix
Stephen H. Schneider: In Memoriam ............................. xxv
Introduction Future Climate
1 Seeing Further: The Futurology of Climate .................... 3
1.1 The Future of Our Climate: Introduction and Outline ..... 3
1.2 Global Warming: Climate's 'Elephant in the Room' ........ 5
1.2.1 Informing the Public on the Greenhouse 'Debate' .. 5
1.2.2 Global Warming 'Just a Theory' ................... 6
1.2.3 Schneider and Climate Connectedness .............. 9
1.3 The Complexity of the Future of the World's Climate .... 11
1.3.1 Changing Climates ............................... 11
1.3.2 Challenges in Climate Science ................... 12
1.4 Climate Future of the Coorong: Communicating from
Global 'Ground Zero' ................................... 16
1.4.1 From Global to Local ............................ 16
1.4.2 Witnessing the World's First Climate'Ground
Zero' ........................................... 18
1.5 Futurology of Climate .................................. 22
Acknowledgements ............................................ 25
Section I The Anthropocene
2 People, Policy and Politics in Future Climates .............. 29
2.1 Introduction: Human and Ecological Systems and
Paradigm Change ........................................ 29
2.2 The Challenges of Governance for Mitigation of
Climate Change ......................................... 31
2.3 A Governance Approach to Address Climate Change ........ 31
2.4 Science and Politics in the International Climate
Regime ................................................. 34
2.4.1 IPCC Science and Governance ..................... 34
2.4.2 IPCC 2010 Review ................................ 36
2.4.3 IPCC as an SES Contributor ...................... 36
2.4.4 IPCC Projections, Tipping Points, and Policy-
Making .......................................... 37
2.5 The Role of the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol .............. 38
2.6 Тор-Down Actions Stemming From Inside and Outside
UNFCCC/Kyoto ........................................... 40
2.6.1 Greenhouse Gas Accounting ....................... 40
2.6.2 Development Initiatives on Climate Change ....... 40
2.6.3 EU Member Countries Policies and Programs ....... 41
2.6.4 Climate Change Vacillation by the USA and
Australia ....................................... 41
2.6.5 The Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean
Development and Climate ......................... 42
2.6.6 New Zealand's Policy Development ................ 43
2.6.7 Developing Nations .............................. 43
2.7 Bottom-Up Approaches: Civil/Society Participation and
Influence .............................................. 43
2.8 Prospects for the Future ............................... 44
2.8.1 Institutional Change ............................ 44
2.8.2 Social Learning ................................. 44
2.9 Future Unknowns: Living on a Warmer Earth? ............. 45
3 Urban Climates and Global Climate Change .................... 47
3.1 Introduction: Living in Cities ......................... 47
3.1.1 Overview ........................................ 47
3.1.2 Why Are Urban Climates Important to Future
Climates? ....................................... 48
3.2 Local and Regional Urban Climates: The Biophysical
Basis .................................................. 50
3.2.1 Urban Morphology ................................ 50
3.2.2 Momentum Fluxes and Turbulence .................. 52
3.2.3 Urban Energy Exchanges .......................... 54
3.2.4 Urban Water Balance ............................. 56
3.2.1 Urban Carbon Balance ............................ 61
3.2.6 Summary: Coupling Energy, Water, and Carbon in
Urban Areas ..................................... 63
3.2.7 Direct Urban Climate Effects .................... 64
3.3 Cities and Global Climate Change ....................... 67
3.3.1 Using Urban Design to Mitigate Global Climate
Change .......................................... 68
3.3.2 Adapting to Global Climate Change in Cities ..... 71
3.3.3 Managing Air Quality Risks in a Warmer and
Urbanised World ................................. 72
3.4 Current State-of-the-Art in Simulating Urban Climates .. 72
3.4.1 Hardware Models ................................. 72
3.4.2 Statistical Models .............................. 73
3.4.3 Physically-Based Models ......................... 73
3.5 Cities and the Future Climate .......................... 75
4 Human Effects on Climate Through Land-Use-Induced Land-
Cover Change ................................................ 77
4.1 Introduction: Land Change and Climate .................. 77
4.2 The Scale of Human Modification ........................ 78
4.3 Mechanisms/Processes Through Which LULCC Affects
Climate ................................................ 80
4.3.1 The Terrestrial Carbon Balance .................. 80
4.3.2 The Surface Energy Balance ...................... 80
4.3.3 The Surface Water Balance ....................... 84
4.3.4 The Snow—Climate Feedback ....................... 84
4.3.5 Summary ......................................... 84
4.4 Links Between LULCC and Climate ........................ 85
4.4.1 Hasleretal. (2009) .............................. 87
4.4.2 Findell et al. (2006, 2007, 2009) ............... 88
4.4.3 Urban LULCC ..................................... 89
4.4.4 Land-Use and Climate, Identification of Robust
Impacts (LUCID): Pitman et al. (2009) ........... 89
4.4.5 Implications of LULCC for Future Simulations;
Feddema et al. (2005) ........................... 91
4.5 Land Use and Understanding our Future Climate .......... 92
Section II Time and Tide
5 Fast and Slow Feedbacks in Future Climates .................. 99
5.1 Introduction: The Sensitive Climate ................... 100
5.1.1 Radiative Forcing .............................. 100
5.1.2 Climate Sensitivity and Feedback Processes ..... 101
5.2 Fast-Feedback Climate Sensitivity ..................... 101
5.2.1 Linear Feedback Analysis ....................... 101
5.2.2 Climate Sensitivities of AML Models and
AOGCMs ......................................... 103
5.2.3 Observational Validation of the Water Vapour
Feedback in AOGCMs ............................. 106
5.2.4 Climate Sensitivity Deduced from Historical
Temperature Trends ............................. 107
5.2.5 Climate Sensitivity Deduced from Observed
Short-Term Temperature Changes ................. 108
5.2.6 Climate Sensitivity Deduced from Past
Climates and Forcings .......................... 110
5.2.7 Evidence from the Co-variation of Temperature
and CO2 Over Geological Time ................... 111
5.2.8 Climate Sensitivity Deduced from Slow
Variations in Atmospheric CO2 Concentration .... 112
5.2.9 Conclusion Concerning the Fast-Feedback
Climate Sensitivity ............................ 113
5.3 Slow Feedback Processes Related to the Carbon Cycle ... 114
5.3.1 Oceanic Carbon Cycle Processes ................. 114
5.3.2 Ocean Carbon Cycle Feedback Processes .......... 115
5.3.3 Ocean Climate - Carbon Cycle Feedback
Processes ...................................... 115
5.3.4 Observed Climate-Related Changes in Oceanic
CO2 Uptake and Related Variables ............... 116
5.3.5 Climate - Ocean-Sink Feedbacks as Projected by
Models ......................................... 117
5.3.6 Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Processes ............. 118
5.3.7 Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Feedback Processes .... 119
5.3.8 Terrestrial Climate - Carbon Cycle Feedback
Processes ...................................... 119
5.3.9 Terrestrial Climate - Carbon Cycle Feedback:
Local and Large-Scale Observations ............. 124
5.3.10 Destabilization of Methane Clathrate ........... 126
5.4 Coupled Climate - Carbon Cycle Model Results and
Linear Feedback Analysis .............................. 127
5.4.1 Effect of the Oceans in Limiting the
Transient Temperature Response ................. 127
5.4.2 Climatic Change As a Feedback on the Carbon
Cycle .......................................... 129
5.4.3 The Carbon Cycle As a Climate Feedback ......... 130
5.4.4 Role of Carbon—Nitrogen (C-N) Coupling ......... 132
5.4.5 Combination of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon
Feedback Cain Formulation ...................... 133
5.4.6 Applying Climate Sensitivity to Future
Climate Policy Strategies ...................... 134
5.5 Other Slow and Less-Considered Feedbacks .............. 137
5.5.1 Enhanced Land Surface Warming Due to the
Physiological Effect of Higher C02 ............. 137
5.5.2 Shifts in the Distribution of Plant
Functional Types ............................... 137
5.5.3 Decrease in the Extent of the Greenland Ice
Cap ............................................ 138
5.5.4 Delayed Ocean Circulation Changes and Cloud
Feedback ....................................... 138
5.5.5 Collapse of Marine Bioproductivity and Cloud
Feedback ....................................... 138
5.6 Climate Feedbacks and the Future Climate .............. 139
Acknowledgements ........................................... 139
6 Variability and Change in the Ocean ........................ 141
6.1 Introduction: Climate Variability ..................... 141
6.2 Observed Ocean Variability and Change ................. 142
6.2.1 Observing the Global Ocean ..................... 142
6.2.2 Natural Modes of Variability ................... 143
6.2.3 Surface Temperature and Salinity ............... 146
6.2.4 Heat Content and Sea Level ..................... 147
6.2.5 Ocean Circulation .............................. 150
6.2.6 Oxygen ......................................... 151
6.2.7 Carbon and Вiogeochemistry ..................... 152
6.2.8 Ocean Biology .................................. 155
6.3 Projections for the Future ............................ 156
6.3.1 Tropical Pacific ............................... 156
6.3.2 Southern Ocean ................................. 158
6.3.3 Sea-Level ...................................... 159
6.4 Ocean Biogeochemical Feedbacks ........................ 160
6.4.1 Solubility Carbon Pump ......................... 161
6.4.2 The Biological Pump ............................ 161
6.4.3 Ocean Acidification Feedbacks .................. 162
6.4.4 Other Climate Feedbacks ........................ 163
6.5 Oceanic Variability and Change ........................ 163
6.5.1 Oceans and the Future Climate .................. 163
6.5.2 Future Unknowns ................................ 164
Acknowledgements ........................................... 165
7 Climatic Variability on Decadal to Century Timescales ...... 167
7.1 Introduction: Oceans and Future Climate ............... 167
7.2 Tropical Decadal Variability .......................... 171
7.3 Description of Extra-tropical Decadal Variability ..... 173
7.4 Evidence of Centennial Variability .................... 178
7.5 The Stochastic Climate Model: The Null Hypothesis
For Climate Variability ............................... 181
7.5.1 The Zero-Order Stochastic Climate Model ........ 182
7.5.2 Stochastic Models with Mean Advection and
Spatial Coherence .............................. 182
7.5.3 Stochastic Wind Stress Forcing of a Dynamical
Ocean .......................................... 183
7.5.4 Hyper-climate Mode ............................. 183
7.5.5 Stochastically-Driven AMOC Variability ......... 184
7.5.6 Stochastic Coupled Variability Involving the
AMOC ........................................... 188
7.5.7 Stochastically Forced Southern Ocean
Variability .................................... 188
7.5.8 Forced AMOC Variability ........................ 189
7.6 Summary: Future Unknowns .............................. 194
8 The Future of the World's Glaciers ......................... 197
8.1 Introduction: Climate and the Cryosphere .............. 197
8.1.1 Glaciers in the Context of Climatic Change ..... 197
8.1.2 Glaciers in the Context of Socio-Economic
Change ......................................... 198
8.1.3 Scope .......................................... 198
8.2 Elements .............................................. 199
8.2.1 Glacier Geography and Physiography ............. 199
8.2.2 The Radiation Balance .......................... 202
8.2.3 The Energy Balance ............................. 202
8.3 Glacier Mass Balance .................................. 203
8.3.1 Terms in the Mass-Balance Equation ............. 203
8.3.2 Definitions and Units .......................... 205
8.4 Modelling Tools ....................................... 205
8.4.1 Volume-Area Scaling ............................ 205
8.4.2 Temperature-Index Models ....................... 206
8.4.3 Energy-Balance Models .......................... 207
8.4.4 Mass-Balance Sensitivity ....................... 207
8.4.5 Models of Glacier Dynamics ..................... 208
8.5 Recent and Present States of the World's Glaciers ..... 208
8.5.1 Kinds of Change ................................ 208
8.5.2 Evolution of Glacier Mass Balance Since the
Little Ice Age ................................. 209
8.5.3 Measurements of Shrinkage ...................... 209
8.5.4 Present-Day Extent and Thickness ............... 210
8.5.5 Recent Evolution of Glacier Mass Balance ....... 211
8.6 The Outlook for Glaciers .............................. 213
8.6.1 Future Contributions to Sea-Level Rise ......... 213
8.6.2 The Future of Himalayan Glaciers ............... 219
8.7 Reflections: Glaciers and the Future Climate .......... 220
8.7.1 Basic Information .............................. 220
8.7.2 Gaps in Understanding .......................... 221
8.7.3 The Probability Distribution Function of
Glacier Futures: Glimpses of the Known and
Unknown ........................................ 221
Acknowledgements ........................................... 222
9 Future Regional Climates ................................... 223
9.1 Introduction: Close-Up of Climate Change .............. 223
9.2 Regional-Scale Climate Phenomena ...................... 224
9.2.1 Tropical Cyclones .............................. 224
9.2.2 Sea Breezes and Monsoons ....................... 226
9.2.3 Orographic Precipitation, Rain Shadows, and
Foehn Winds .................................... 228
9.2.4 Mountain Barrier Jets .......................... 228
9.2.5 Regional Climate Change Impacts ................ 228
9.3 Downscaling Global Climate Projections ................ 232
9.3.1 Dynamical Downscaling .......................... 232
9.3.2 Statistical Downscaling ........................ 236
9.4 Sources of Uncertainty ................................ 237
9.4.1 Emission Scenarios ............................. 237
9.4.2 GCM Uncertainties .............................. 238
9.4.3 Uncertainty from Downscaling Techniques ........ 239
9.4.4 Building Ensembles ............................. 241
9.5 Achieving Regional Climate Predictions ................ 243
9.5.1 Water Resources ................................ 243
9.5.2 Greenland Mass Balance ......................... 246
9.5.3 Understanding Tropical Cyclones ................ 246
9.6 Regionalizing Future Climate .......................... 250
Section III Looking Forward
10 Climate and Weather Extremes: Observations, Modelling,
and Projections ............................................ 253
10.1 Introduction: Extremes of Climate ..................... 253
10.1.1 Why Study Weather and Climate Extremes? ........ 253
10.1.2 Definition of Climate Extremes ................. 257
10.2 Methodological Issues Regarding the Analysis of
Extremes .............................................. 260
10.2.1 Quality and Homogeneity of Observed Data ....... 260
10.2.2 Statistical Analysis of Extremes ............... 262
10.2.3 Issues of Scale ................................ 265
10.3 Observed Changes in Extremes .......................... 268
10.3.1 Temperature Extremes ........................... 268
10.3.2 Precipitation Extremes ......................... 273
10.3.3 Complex (Compound)
Extremes ................................................... 275
10.4 Climate Processes and Climate Extremes ................ 278
10.4.1 Natural Modes of Variability of the Climate
System and Their Influence on Extremes'
Behaviour ...................................... 278
10.4.2 Land—Atmosphere Feedback Processes' Influence
on Extremes .................................... 279
10.5 How Well do Climate Models Simulate Extremes? ......... 280
10.6 The Future ............................................ 281
10.6.1 Temperature Extremes ........................... 283
10.6.2 Precipitation Extremes ......................... 285
10.6.3 Tropical and Extra-tropical Storms ............. 287
10.7 Extremes in Our Future Climate ........................ 288
11 Interaction Between Future Climate and Terrestrial Carbon
and Nitrogen ............................................... 289
11.1 Introduction: Cycling Terrestrial Nutrients ........... 289
11.2 Climate System Feedbacks .............................. 290
11.2.1 Carbon ......................................... 290
11.2.2 Methane ........................................ 292
11.2.3 Aerosols ....................................... 292
11.3 Biogeochemical Processes .............................. 292
11.3.1 Leaf Carbon .................................... 292
11.3.2 Down-regulation of Leaf Photosynthetic
Capacity ....................................... 294
11.3.3 Soil Metabolism ................................ 295
11.3.4 Nitrogen Cycling and Feedbacks on Carbon ....... 295
11.3.5 Nitrogen Fixation .............................. 297
11.4 Observational Constraints ............................. 297
11.4.1 General Considerations of Rates and
Timescales ..................................... 297
11.4.2 Dependence of Carbon Assimilation on CO2 and
N at Leaf Level ................................ 298
11.4.3 Leaf-Level Response to Drought ................. 299
11.4.4 Temperature Dependence of Carbon
Assimilation ................................... 299
11.4.5 Dependence of Plant Growth on C02 and N ........ 300
11.4.6 A Network for Monitoring the 'Breathing' of
the Terrestrial Biosphere ...................... 301
11.4.7 Atmosphere Concentration as a Global
Constraint on Terrestrial Sources and Sinks .... 302
11.5 Modelling Nitrogen - Carbon Interactions .............. 303
11.5.1 Scaling from Leaf to Canopy .................... 303
11.5.2 Modelling Plant and Soil Carbon and Nitrogen
Cycling ........................................ 304
11.5.3 Modelling Nitrogen Fixation .................... 305
11.5.4 Modelling Nitrification and Leaching Losses .... 305
11.5.5 What Models Tell Us About How Terrestrial
Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles Will Change and
Interact with the Atmosphere in Future
Climates ....................................... 305
11.5.6 Response of Soil Carbon to Future Climate
Change ......................................... 307
11.6 Consequences of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change for
Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles ............................ 307
11.7 Vegetation and the Future Climate ..................... 308
Acknowledgements ........................................... 308
12 Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate - Chemistry
Interactions ............................................... 309
12.1 Introduction .......................................... 310
12.2 Key Interactions in the Climate - Chemistry System .... 312
12.2.1 Observing Chemistry-Climate Interactions ....... 313
12.2.2 Modelling Chemistry-Climate Interactions ....... 313
12.2.3 Scale Issues ................................... 314
12.2.4 Upper Tropospheric Processes ................... 316
12.3 Trends in Emissions of Chemical Species and in
Chemically Active Greenhouse Compounds ................ 317
12.3.1 Future Emissions ............................... 317
12.4 Distribution and Changes of Chemical Active
Greenhouse Gases and Their Precursors ................. 322
12.4.1 Observations and Analysis of Greenhouse Gases
and Their Precursors ........................... 322
12.4.2 Modelling Future Changes ....................... 329
12.4.3 Aerosol Distribution and Interaction ........... 332
12.4.4 Observed Brightening and Dimming Trends over
the Last 40 Years .............................. 335
12.5 Climate Impact from Emission Changes .................. 337
12.5.1 Radiative Forcing from Gases ................... 337
12.5.2 Direct Aerosol Effect .......................... 340
12.5.3 Semidirect Effects of Aerosols ................. 341
12.5.4 Aerosol Indirect Effects ....................... 342
12.5.5 Radiative Forcing Summary ...................... 344
12.6 Contributions to Tropospheric Changes from the
Transport Sector and for Different Regions ............ 345
12.6.1 Composition Change Due to Emission from the
Transport Sectors .............................. 346
12.6.2 Climate Impact from the Transport Sectors ...... 350
12.6.3 The Impact of Large Emission Increases in
South East Asia ................................ 352
12.6.4 Impact on the Arctic (Arctic Haze) ............. 353
12.7 Impact on Tropospheric Composition from Climate
Change and Changes In Stratospheric Composition ....... 354
12.7.1 Impact of Climate Change on Future
Tropospheric Composition ....................... 354
12.7.2 Impact of Stratospheric Changes on
Tropospheric Composition ....................... 357
12.8 Cross Cutting Issues (Policy Relations, Integration) .. 358
12.8.1 Climatic Response to Solar Forcing: Overview
of Theories .................................... 359
12.8.2 Metrics ........................................ 360
12.8.3 Future Directions for Climate - Chemistry
Research ....................................... 362
12.9 Summary and Conclusions ............................... 363
Acknowledgements ........................................... 365
13 Climate - Chemistry Interaction: Future Tropospheric
Ozone and Aerosols ......................................... 367
13.1 Atmospheric Composition, Chemistry, and Climate ....... 367
13.1.1 Background ..................................... 367
13.1.2 Anthropogenic Activity and Climate Changes ..... 368
13.1.3 Climate - Chemistry Interaction: Regional-
Scales ......................................... 369
13.1.4 Focus of This Chapter .......................... 370
13.2 Climatically-Important Chemical Compounds ............. 370
13.2.1 Tropospheric Ozone ............................. 370
13.2.2 Tropospheric Aerosols .......................... 372
13.2.3 Coupling Changes of Chemistry and Climate ...... 378
13.3 Climate—Chemistry Interaction of Tropospheric Ozone ... 380
13.3.1 The Role of Ozone As a Climatically Active
Compound ....................................... 380
13.3.2 Ozone Chemistry ................................ 381
13.3.3 Ozone - Climate Coupling ....................... 382
13.3.4 Effect of Ozone-Climate Interaction ............ 383
13.4 Climate - Chemistry Interaction of Tropospheric
Sulfate Aerosols ...................................... 387
13.4.1 The Role of Sulfate Aerosols As
a Climatically-Active Compound ................. 387
13.4.2 Sulfate Aerosol - Climate Coupling ............. 388
13.4.3 Effect of Climate - Chemistry Interactions ..... 388
13.4.4 Predicting Future Aerosol Impact on Climate .... 390
13.5 Mitigation Policies for Climate and Air Quality ....... 392
13.5.1 Mitigation Studies from the Transport Sector ... 392
13.5.2 Tropospheric Aerosols .......................... 393
13.5.3 Tropospheric Ozone ............................. 396
13.6 Future Study of Climate - Chemistry Interaction ....... 397
13.6.1 Extending Current Case Studies ................. 397
13.6.2 Climate - Chemistry 'Known Unknowns' ........... 397
13.6.3 Atmospheric Chemistry and Future Climate ....... 399
Acknowledgements ........................................... 399
Section IV Learning Lessons
14 Records from the Past, Lessons for the Future: What the
Palaeorecord Implies about Mechanisms of Global Change ..... 403
14.1 Timescales of Climate Change, their Causation, and
Detection ............................................. 403
14.1.1 The Climate System and Timescales of
Variability .................................... 407
14.1.2 Insolation Variations .......................... 408
14.1.3 Implications of Insolation Variations .......... 410
14.1.4 Co-variation of Climate and Biogeochemical
Cycles Over the Past 800 kyr ................... 411
14.1.5 The Hierarchy of Climatic Variations and the
Explanation of Palaeoclimatic Records .......... 413
14.1.6 Cycles and Spurious Periodicity: A Warning ..... 414
14.2 Regional Responses to Millennial-Scale Forcing ........ 415
14.2.1 The Last Glacial Maximum ....................... 415
14.2.2 The Mid-Holocene ............................... 418
14.2.3 Consistency of Spatial Responses in Warm and
Cold Climates .................................. 421
14.2.4 Different Spatial Scales of Response ........... 422
14.2.5 Changes in Teleconnections/Short-Term
Variability .................................... 424
14.3 Rapid Climate Changes ................................. 424
14.3.1 Examples of Rapid/Abrupt Climate Changes ....... 426
14.3.2 Characteristics of Dansgaard - Oeschger
(D-O) Cycles ................................... 427
14.3.3 Mechanisms for D-О Cycles ...................... 428
14.3.4 Spatial Patterns of D-O Cycles ................. 429
14.4 Biosphere Feedbacks ................................... 430
14.5 Lessons from the Past for the Study of Climate
Changes ............................................... 432
14.6 Lessons from the Past for Future Climates ............. 435
Acknowledgements ........................................... 436
15 Modelling the Past and Future Interglacials in Response
to Astronomical and Greenhouse Gas Forcing ................. 437
15.1 Introduction: Interglacials and Warm Climate .......... 437
15.2 Model and Experiments Used for Simulating the Last
Nine Interglacials .................................... 439
15.3 Precession and Obliquity During the Interglacials ..... 442
15.4 Latitudinal and Seasonal Distribution of Insolation ... 443
15.5 Modelling the GHG and Insolation Contributions to
the Difference Between Pre- and Post-MBE
Interglacials ......................................... 443
15.6 GHG and Insolation Contributions to the Individual
Interglacial Climates ................................. 447
15.6.1 The Reference Climate .......................... 447
15.6.2 Pure Contribution of GHG ....................... 448
15.6.3 Pure Contribution of Insolation ................ 450
15.6.4 Combined Effect of Insolation and GHG .......... 455
15.7 Future of Our lnterglacial ............................ 458
15.7.1 Future Insolation and Analogues for the
Holocene ....................................... 458
15.7.2 Modelling the Future of Holocene ............... 460
15.7.3 Ruddiman Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis ........ 461
15.8 Probing Future Astro-Climates ......................... 461
Acknowledgements ........................................... 462
16 Catastrophe: Extraterrestrial Impacts, Massive Volcanism,
and the Biosphere .......................................... 463
16.1 Introduction: What is a Climate Catastrophe? .......... 463
16.2 Massive Volcanism: Case Study of the Triassic-
Jurassic (Tr-J) Event ................................. 464
16.2.1 Introduction ................................... 464
16.2.2 A Definition of the Triassic-Jurassic
Boundary ....................................... 464
16.2.3 Break-Up of Pangaea and Massive Volcanism at
the Tr-J Transition ............................ 465
16.2.4 The Earth's Physical Environment at the
Triassic-Jurassic Transition ................... 465
16.2.5 Mass Extinction and Biotic Changes at the
Triassic-Jurassic Transition ................... 468
16.2.6 Relationship Between CAMP Volcanism and
Biotic Change at the Tr-J ...................... 469
16.2.7 Summary ........................................ 471
16.3 Extraterrestrial Impacts: Case Study of the End-
Cretaceous Events ..................................... 472
16.3.1 A Definition of the Cretaceous - Palaeogene
Boundary ....................................... 473
16.3.2 Impact at the End of the Cretaceous ............ 473
16.3.3 Deccan and Other Volcanism ..................... 474
16.3.4 Mass Extinction and Biotic Changes at the
Cretaceous-Palaeogene Boundary ................. 475
16.4 The Potential of the K-Pg Impact to Cause
Environmental Change .................................. 476
16.4.1 K-Pg Ground Zero ............................... 476
16.4.2 Global Effects ................................. 476
16.4.3 Extinction Mechanisms and Biotic Change at
the K-Pg Boundary .............................. 479
16.4.4 Concluding Remarks on the K-Pg Event ........... 483
16.5 Comparison of the Tr-J And K-Pg Events ................ 483
16.6 'Deep-Time' Context for Anthropogenic Environmental
and Climate Change .................................... 484
16.7 Future Climate Catastrophes ........................... 485
Acknowledgements ........................................... 485
Section V Understanding the Unknowns
17 Future Climate Surprises ................................... 489
17.1 Introduction: Probing Future Climates ................. 489
17.2 Defining Climate Surprises ............................ 490
17.2.1 Tipping Points and Noise-Induced Transitions ... 490
17.2.2 Policy-Relevant Tipping Elements ............... 492
17.3 Melting of Large Masses of Ice ........................ 493
17.3.1 Arctic Sea-Ice ................................. 493
17.3.2 Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) ...................... 494
17.3.3 West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) ................ 494
17.3.4 Yedoma Permafrost .............................. 494
17.3.5 Ocean Methane Hydrates? ........................ 495
17.3.6 Himalayan Glaciers? ............................ 495
17.4 Changes in Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulation ........ 495
17.4.1 Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) .................... 495
17.4.2 El Niño-Southern/Oscillation (ENSO) ............ 496
17.4.3 Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC) ........ 496
17.4.4 West African Monsoon (WAM) and Sahel-Sahara .... 496
17.4.5 Southwest North America (SWNA)? ................ 497
17.5 Loss of Biomes ........................................ 497
17.5.1 Amazon Rainforest .............................. 497
17.5.2 Boreal Forest .................................. 498
17.5.3 Coral Reefs? ................................... 498
17.6 Coping with Climate Surprises ......................... 498
17.6.1 Risk Assessment ................................ 498
17.6.2 Removing the Element of Surprise? .............. 499
17.6.3 Early Warning of Bifurcations .................. 500
17.6.4 Limitations on Early Warning ................... 501
17.6.5 Bifurcations in Noisy Systems .................. 502
17.6.6 Application to Past Abrupt Climate Changes ..... 503
17.7 Future Climate: Surprises, Responses, and Recovery
Strategies ............................................ 505
17.7.1 Mitigation ..................................... 505
17.7.2 Geo-engineering ................................ 506
17.7.3 Rational Responses? ............................ 506
17.7.4 Recovery Prospects ............................. 507
17.8 Conclusion: Gaps in Knowledge ......................... 507
Acknowledgements ........................................... 507
18 Future Climate: One Vital Component of Trans-
disciplinary Earth System Science .......................... 509
18.1 Gaia and Earth System Science ......................... 509
18.1.1 Earth: An Integrated System .................... 509
18.1.2 The Gaia Hypothesis ............................ 511
18.1.3 Earth System Science ........................... 513
18.1.4 Advances in Earth System Science ............... 517
18.2 Humans in the Earth System ............................ 520
18.2.1 Climate Change and the Gaian Governance
Monkeys ........................................ 520
18.2.2 Social Tipping Points in Climate Change: 2007
to 2010 ........................................ 521
18.2.3 Research Requires a Meritocracy; Decisions
Demand Democracy ............................... 522
18.2.4 Integrity Paradox: Policy Prescription or
People's Ponzi ................................. 523
18.2.5 Gaian Governance ............................... 524
18.3 Trans-Disciplinary Earth System Science ............... 525
18.3.1 Creating a Social Contract with Society ........ 525
18.3.2 ESS Trans-disciplinarity in Action ............. 526
18.3.3 Future Climates: Exploiting Trans-
disciplinary Earth System Science .............. 527
Acknowledgements .............................................. 529
Bibliography .................................................. 531
Index ......................................................... 623
Editors' Biographies .......................................... 639
Biographies ................................................... 641
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