 | Sun X. Multiple criteria decision analysis techniques in aircraft design and evaluation processes: Diss. … Dr.-Ing. / Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Lufttransportsysteme, Hamburg. - Köln: DLR, Bibliotheks- und Informationswesen, 2013. - xviii, 181 p.: ill. - (Forschungsbericht; 2013-05). - Ref.: p.143-150.1434-8454
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List of Figures ................................................ ix
List of Tables ............................................... xiii
1 Introduction ................................................. 1
1.1 Motivation .............................................. 2
1.2 Literature Review on MCDA in Air Transportation
Systems ................................................. 3
1.3 Research Statement ...................................... 7
1.4 Thesis Outline .......................................... 8
2 Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques Overview ......... 9
2.1 Concepts and Terminologies ............................. 10
2.2 Preference Information Elicitation Techniques .......... 11
2.2.1 Direct Assignment Method ........................ 12
2.2.2 Eigenvector Method .............................. 13
2.2.3 Entropy Method .................................. 13
2.2.4 Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique ......... 14
2.2.5 Kano's Model .................................... 14
2.2.6 Distance-to-target Method ....................... 15
2.3 Typical Non-compensatory Decision Analysis Methods ..... 16
2.3.1 Conjunctive Method .............................. 16
2.3.2 Disjunctive Method .............................. 17
2.3.3 Dominance Method ................................ 17
2.3.4 ELECTRE ......................................... 17
2.3.5 Elimination by Aspects Method ................... 22
2.3.6 Lexicographic Method ............................ 23
2.3.7 Maximin Method .................................. 23
2.3.8 Maximax Method .................................. 24
2.4 Typical Compensatory Decision Analysis Methods ......... 24
2.4.1 Analytic Hierarchy Process ...................... 24
2.4.2 Expected Utility Theory ......................... 26
2.4.3 Multi-Attribute Utility Theory .................. 27
2.4.4 Multiplicative Weighting Method ................. 27
2.4.5 PROMETHEE ....................................... 27
2.4.6 Simple Additive Weighting ....................... 30
2.4.7 TOPSIS .......................................... 30
2.5 Emerging MCDA Techniques Interacting with Other
Disciplines ............................................ 34
2.5.1 Problem Structuring Methods and MCDA ............ 34
2.5.2 Evolutionary Optimization Algorithms and MCDA ... 36
3 MCDA Method Selection ....................................... 37
3.1 Method Selection Background ............................ 37
3.2 An Advanced Approach for Method Selection .............. 39
3.2.1 Step 1: Define the Problem ...................... 40
3.2.2 Step 2: Define the Evaluation Criteria .......... 40
3.2.3 Step 3: Perform Initial Screening ............... 41
3.2.4 Step 4: Define the Preferences on Evaluation
Criteria ........................................ 41
3.2.5 Step 5: Calculate the Appropriateness Index ..... 41
3.2.6 Step 6: Evaluate the MCDA Methods ............... 43
3.2.7 Step 7: Choose the Most Suitable Method ......... 43
3.2.8 Step 8: Conduct Sensitivity Analysis ............ 44
3.2.9 Two Particular Scenarios During the Method
Selection Process ............................... 44
3.3 An Intelligent Multi-Criteria Decision Support
System ................................................. 45
3.4 Chapter Summary ........................................ 45
4 Uncertainty Assessment in the Decision Analysis Process ..... 47
4.1 Uncertainty Assessment: State of the Art ............... 47
4.2 Uncertainty Characterization ........................... 48
4.2.1 Relationship between Normal Distribution and
Error Function .................................. 48
4.2.2 Uncertainty Transformation using Inverse Error
Function ........................................ 49
4.3 Uncertainty Analysis ................................... 50
4.3.1 Background of Error Propagation Techniques ...... 50
4.3.2 Robustness Measurement using Signal-to-Noise
Ratio ........................................... 51
4.4 Local Sensitivity Analysis via Iterative Binary
Search Algorithm ....................................... 53
4.4.1 Iterative Binary Search Algorithm ............... 55
4.4.2 Interactive Sensitivity Analysis for Weighting
Factors ......................................... 56
4.5 Global Sensitivity Analysis using Partial Rank
Correlation Coefficients ............................... 59
4.5.1 Correlation Coefficients and Statistical
Significance Test ............................... 59
4.5.2 Proposed Approach to Perform Global
Sensitivity Analysis ............................ 62
4.6 An Uncertainty Assessment Module ....................... 65
4.7 Chapter Summary ........................................ 66
5 Proof of Concept 1: MCDA in Aircraft Design ................. 67
5.1 Definition of the Decision Making Problem .............. 68
5.1.1 Identification of Design Criteria ............... 69
5.1.2 Parametric Studies of Design Criteria ........... 70
5.2 Selection of an Appropriate MCDA Method ................ 73
5.2.1 An Improved TOPSIS (ITOPSIS) Technique .......... 77
5.3 Proposed Multi-Criteria Optimization Framework ......... 78
5.3.1 Numerical Optimization Techniques ............... 79
5.3.2 Optimization Results of Typical Weighting
Scenarios ....................................... 81
5.3.3 Comparison Using Different MCDA Indices as
Objective Functions ............................. 84
5.4 Surrogate Model Development for Design Criteria in
terms of Weighting Factors ............................. 86
5.4.1 Experimental Design ............................. 87
5.4.2 Model Choice .................................... 90
5.4.3 Model Fitting ................................... 91
5.4.4 Model Validation ................................ 92
5.5 Uncertainty Assessment for Weighting Factors via
Surrogate Models ....................................... 96
5.5.1 Uncertainty Characterization .................... 97
5.5.2 Uncertainty Analysis ............................ 98
5.5.3 Sensitivity Analysis ........................... 100
5.6 Discussion ............................................ 102
6 Proof of Concept 2: MCDA in Aircraft Evaluation ............ 105
6.1 Definition of the Decision Making Problem ............. 105
6.1.1 Identification of Evaluation Criteria .......... 106
6.1.2 Quantification of Additional Soft Criteria ..... 108
6.2 Selection of an Appropriate MCDA Method ............... 113
6.3 Evaluation Results using ELECTRE I .................... 116
6.3.1 Stepwise Calculations of ELECTRE I ............. 117
6.3.2 Typical Weighting Scenarios for ELECTRE I ...... 120
6.4 Uncertainty Assessment ................................ 120
6.4.1 Uncertainty Characterization .................. 121
6.4.2 Uncertainty Analysis ........................... 122
6.4.3 Sensitivity Analysis ........................... 125
6.5 Discussion ........................................... 135
7 Conclusions ................................................ 139
7.1 Research Questions Answered ........................... 139
7.2 Summary of Scientific Contributions ................... 141
7.3 Recommendations ....................................... 142
References .................................................... 143
A User Guide of an Intelligent Multi-Criteria Decision
Support System ............................................. 151
A.l Select the Most Appropriate Method .................... 151
A.2 Use Specific Method to Solve a Given Problem .......... 156
A.3 Uncertainty Assessment ................................ 156
B Additional Figures ......................................... 159
B.l Parametric Studies of Design Criteria ................. 159
B.2 Interactive Weighting Plots for Business Aircraft
Evaluation ............................................ 164
С Data Sources ............................................... 169
C.l Data Points for Surrogate Model Development in terms
of Weighting Factors .................................. 169
C.2 Additional Untried Data Points for Evaluation of
Surrogate Model Accuracy .............................. 174
C.3 Typical Weighting Scenarios for Business Aircraft
Evaluation ............................................ 179
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