 | Langhans S. A systems engineering approach for economic assessment of air transport concepts: Diss. … Dr.-Ing. / Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Lufttransportsysteme, Hamburg. - Köln: DLR, Bibliotheks- und Informationswesen, 2013. - xvi, 275 p.: ill. - (Forschungsbericht; 2013-04). - Ref.: p.205-275. - ISSN 1434-8454
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List of Figures ............................................... vii
List of Tables ................................................. xi
Glossary ....................................................... xv
1 Introduction ................................................. 1
1.1 Problem Definition ...................................... 1
1.2 Motivation .............................................. 3
1.3 Organization of Thesis .................................. 8
2 Research Approach ............................................ 9
2.1 Theoretic Background ................................... 10
2.1.1 Systems Engineering Theory ...................... 10
2.1.2 Cost Estimating Theory .......................... 13
2.2 Literature Review ...................................... 21
2.2.1 Modeling of the ATS ............................. 21
2.2.2 Technology Assessment ........................... 22
2.2.3 Cost Modeling for Aviation ...................... 27
2.3 Research Scope ......................................... 34
2.4 Gap Analysis ........................................... 37
2.5 Research Objectives .................................... 38
2.6 Limitations ............................................ 39
3 An Economic Life Cycle Model for Aviation ................... 41
3.1 Method Description and Architecture .................... 43
3.2 Manufacturer ........................................... 44
3.2.1 Airframe Development ............................ 44
3.2.2 Airframe Production ............................. 46
3.2.3 Aircraft Price .................................. 48
3.2.4 Engine Development and Production ............... 49
3.2.5 Engine Price .................................... 49
3.2.6 Manufacturer Cash Flow Analysis and KPIs ........ 50
3.2.7 Check for Plausibility .......................... 54
3.3 Operator ............................................... 59
3.3.1 Aircraft Utilization ............................ 60
3.3.2 Operating Cost Elements ......................... 63
3.3.3 Maintenance Model ............................... 69
3.3.4 Operating Revenue Elements ...................... 79
3.3.5 Cash Flow Analysis and KPIs ..................... 81
3.3.6 Check for Plausibility .......................... 84
3.4 Technology Factors ..................................... 91
3.5 Sensitivity Studies .................................... 92
3.5.1 Manufacturer Sensitivities ...................... 93
3.5.2 Operator Sensitivities .......................... 94
4 Systems Engineering Concept Formulation ..................... 97
4.1 Process Trigger ........................................ 99
4.2 Requirements Formulation .............................. 100
4.2.1 Define System Boundaries ....................... 102
4.2.2 Define Stakeholder Expectations ................ 108
4.2.3 Define External Constraints .................... 110
4.2.4 Define Scenarios ............................... 111
4.2.5 Define Functional and Performance
Requirements ................................... 113
4.2.6 Define Metrics ................................. 114
4.3 System Synthesis ...................................... 118
4.4 System Analysis, Technology Evaluation ................ 119
4.4.1 Efficiency ..................................... 121
4.4.2 Capacity ....................................... 122
4.4.3 Cost Effectiveness ............................. 123
4.4.4 Environment .................................... 127
4.4.5 Safety ......................................... 128
4.4.6 Intangible Aspects ............................. 130
4.5 Decision Making ....................................... 132
5 Proof of Concept: Intermediate Stops Operations ............ 135
5.1 Process Trigger ....................................... 136
5.1.1 Market Pull .................................... 137
5.1.2 Technology Push ................................ 138
5.1.3 Stakeholder Identification ..................... 146
5.2 Requirements Formulation .............................. 148
5.2.1 Define System Boundaries ....................... 148
5.2.2 Define Stakeholder Expectations ................ 149
5.2.3 Define External Constraints .................... 151
5.2.4 Scenarios ...................................... 151
5.2.5 Define Functional and Performance
Requirements ................................... 152
5.2.6 Define Metrics ................................. 155
5.3 System Synthesis ...................................... 157
5.4 System Analysis/Technology Evaluation ................. 160
5.4.1 Operational Level Analysis/Single Flight ....... 160
5.4.2 Fleet Level Analysis ........................... 164
5.4.3 ATS Level Analysis ............................. 185
5.5 Decision Making ....................................... 194
6 Discussion and Recommendations ............................. 199
6.1 Summary of Research ................................... 199
6.2 Analysis of Achievement of Research Objectives ........ 200
6.3 Methodology Discussion ................................ 204
6.4 Technical Discussion of the Use Case: Intermediate
Stop Operations ....................................... 207
6.5 Recommendations ....................................... 209
A Literature Review Backup ................................... 213
A.1 ATS Environmental Evaluation Approaches: APMT and
AIM ................................................... 213
A.2 Technology Assessment ................................. 217
В DOC Assumptions ............................................ 219
С Engine Data ................................................ 221
D Aircraft Price Data ........................................ 223
E Airframe Development Cost Equations ........................ 227
E.1 Development Cost Equations ............................ 227
E.2 NRC Cost Distribution ................................. 228
F Manufacturing Cost Formulae ................................ 231
F.1 Airframe System Cost .................................. 231
F.2 Engine Cost ........................................... 231
G Aircraft Production Rates .................................. 235
H Aircraft Utilization Equations from Literature ............. 237
H.1 Swan and Adler ........................................ 237
H.2 TU Berlin/TU Braunschweig ............................. 237
I Airframe Maintenance Model ................................. 239
I.1 Regression Analysis: Quality of Fit ................... 242
J Engine Maintenance Modeling ................................ 243
J.1 Explanation of Engine Performance Parameters .......... 243
3.2 Primary Removal Causes for Engine Shop Visits ......... 245
J.3 Engine Time on Wing, Severity Curves and Engine Time
and Material factor ................................... 246
J.3.1 Thrust Rating .................................. 246
J.3.2 Operational Conditions ......................... 246
J.3.3 Engine Age ..................................... 248
J.4 Engine Maintenance Data Analysis ...................... 252
К Airline Revenues ........................................... 253
L Systems-Engineering Concept Formulation .................... 255
L.1 IEEE Requirements analysis ............................ 255
L.2 Utilization environments for ATS elements ............. 256
L.3 Functional Requirements of ATS Elements ............... 257
L.4 Overview of Value of Time (VoT) studies ............... 259
M Proof of Concept ........................................... 261
M.1 Maintenance Assumptions ............................... 261
M.2 Engine Maintenance Intervals and Reserves ............. 262
M.3 Assumptions to the Cost Benefit Analysis .............. 264
References ................................................. 265
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