Chapter 1 Land System and Research Plans ....................... 1
1.1 Land System ................................................ 2
1.1.1 Structure of the Land System ........................ 2
1.1.2 Theory and Methodology of Land System Research ...... 5
1.1.3 Procedures of Land System Research .................. 7
1.1.4 Model Architecture of a Land System ................. 9
1.1.5 Approaches to Land System Research ................. 10
1.2 Research Plans and Achievements of the LUCC Plan .......... 11
1.2.1 Identification of Land Uses ........................ 12
1.2.2 Progress of Land Use Research ...................... 17
1.2.3 Research Achievements of the LUCC Plan ............. 22
1.3 The Global Land Project ................................... 25
1.3.1 Background ......................................... 25
1.3.2 Formation and Development of the GLP ............... 26
1.4 Summary ................................................... 31
References ..................................................... 32
Chapter 2 Modeling Framework .................................. 41
2.1 Modeling Strategy at Regional and Pixel Scales ............ 41
2.1.1 Modeling Procedures for Conversion from Pixel to
Regional Scales .................................... 43
2.1.2 Accuracy Verification and Deduction from the
Pixel Scale to the Regional Scale .................. 46
2.2 Shift from Mechanism Analysis to Effects Assessment ....... 51
2.2.1 Mechanism Analysis of the Dynamics of Land
System Change ...................................... 52
2.2.2 Effects Assessment ................................. 62
2.2.3 Multiple Scales in the Dynamics of Land System
Change ............................................. 69
2.2.4 Key Processes from the Mechanism Analysis to the
Effects Assessment ................................. 72
2.3 Summary ................................................... 81
References ..................................................... 82
Chapter 3 The CGELUC Model and Its Application ................ 91
3.1 The CGELUC Model .......................................... 91
3.1.1 Framework of the CGELUC Model ...................... 94
3.1.2 Modules of the CGELUC Model ........................ 99
3.2 The CGELUC Model Database ................................ 106
3.2.1 Database of Thematic Quantitative Analysis ........ 106
3.2.2 The SAM ........................................... 108
3.2.3 Preparation of the SAM Parameters ................. 112
3.3 Methods of SAM Compilation ............................... 114
3.3.1 Compilation of the Macroscopic SAM ................ 116
3.3.2 Subdivision of the Macroscopic SAM ................ 119
3.3.3 Balancing the SAM ................................. 122
3.4 Summary .................................................. 125
References .................................................... 125
Chapter 4 The DLS Model and Its Application .................. 129
4.1 Principles and Function Modules of the DLS Model ......... 129
4.1.1 Fundamental Definition ............................ 129
4.1.2 Features of the DLS Model ......................... 130
4.1.3 Framework of the DLS Model ........................ 131
4.1.4 Application ....................................... 132
4.1.5 Function Modules of the DLS Model ................. 133
4.1.6 Explanatory Linear Model of Land Use Pattern ...... 133
4.1.7 Explanatory Nonlinear Model of Land Use Pattern ... 136
4.1.8 Spatial Allocation of the Changing Area of Land
Uses .............................................. 143
4.2 DLS Installation and Configuration ....................... 146
4.2.1 DLS Installation .................................. 146
4.2.2 Configuring the DLS Operating Environment ......... 147
4.3 DLS Input Parameter Preparation .......................... 148
4.3.1 Simulation Condition Setting Parameters ........... 148
4.3.2 Spatial Analysis Parameters ....................... 149
4.3.3 Driving Factor Data ............................... 151
4.3.4 Land Demand Scenario Data ......................... 152
4.3.5 Restricted Region Code Data ....................... 152
4.3.6 Land Use Type Data ................................ 153
4.4 DLS Operation and Results Output ......................... 154
4.4.1 DLS Operation ..................................... 154
4.4.2 Results Output .................................... 154
4.5 Summary .................................................. 155
References .................................................... 155
Chapter 5 Estimation System for Land Productivity and
Its Applications ................................... 159
5.1 Estimation System for Land Productivity .................. 160
5.1.1 Fundamental Principles ............................ 160
5.1.2 Parameters ........................................ 162
5.1.3 Function Modules .................................. 163
5.2 Operation of the Estimation Model ........................ 169
5.2.1 Temperature Interpolation ......................... 170
5.2.2 LGP Identification ................................ 172
5.2.3 Radiation Data Preparation ........................ 173
5.2.4 Estimation of Effective Radiation ................. 173
5.2.5 Potential Thermal Productivity .................... 174
5.2.6 Potential Climate Productivity .................... 175
5.2.7 Potential Land Productivity ....................... 175
5.2.8 Land Productivity ................................. 177
5.3 Summary .................................................. 179
References .................................................... 180
Chapter 6 Simulation of Structural Change in Land Use
in Jiangxi Province Using the CGELUC Model ......... 183
6.1 Design of the SAM in Jiangxi Province .................... 184
6.1.1 Overview of Jiangxi Province ...................... 184
6.1.2 Compilation of the SAM in Jiangxi Province for
2007 .............................................. 185
6.2 Design of the CGELUC Model for Jiangxi Province .......... 192
6.2.1 GAMS Operating Environment ........................ 192
6.2.2 Structure of the CGELUC Model for Jiangxi
Province .......................................... 194
6.2.3 Scenario Design ................................... 196
6.3 Analysis of Simulation Results of Land Use Structure in
Jiangxi Province ......................................... 198
6.3.1 Land Use Change Based on Different Scenarios ...... 198
6.3.2 Comparative Analysis of Land Use Structure under
Different Scenarios ............................... 203
6.4 Summary .................................................. 206
References .................................................... 206
Chapter 7 Modeling the Dynamics of the Land System in an
Agriculture-Pasture Transition Zone in China ....... 209
7.1 Taips League Background .................................. 209
7.1.1 Location .......................................... 209
7.1.2 Climate ........................................... 210
7.1.3 Terrain and Landform .............................. 213
7.1.4 Soil .............................................. 215
7.1.5 Hydrology ......................................... 216
7.1.6 Vegetation ........................................ 217
7.1.7 Natural Disasters ................................. 217
7.2 Simulation of Land Use Pattern Changes in the Taips
League ................................................... 217
7.2.1 Data Preparation .................................. 217
7.2.2 Analysis of Driving Forces ........................ 226
7.2.3 Scenario Design ................................... 233
7.2.4 Conversion Rules .................................. 235
7.2.5 Simulation Results ................................ 235
7.3 Summary .................................................. 237
References .................................................... 238
Chapter 8 Estimation of the Impacts of Land System Change
on Land Productivity in the North China Plain ...... 241
8.1 Historical Land Productivity in the North China Plain .... 241
8.1.1 Overview of the North China Plain ................. 242
8.1.2 Data and Processing ............................... 246
8.1.3 Estimation of Land Productivity in the 1990s ...... 253
8.1.4 Validation of Land Productivity Results ........... 255
8.2 Future Land Productivity ................................. 257
8.2.1 Data and Data Handling ............................ 257
8.2.2 Estimation Results for Land Productivity in
2010 .............................................. 258
8.2.3 Results of Estimation of Land Productivity in
2020 .............................................. 259
8.3 Impact of Cultivated Land Use Change on Land
Productivity ............................................. 260
8.3.1 Simulation of Future Cultivated Land Use Change
in the North China Plain .......................... 261
8.3.2 Analysis of the Effects of Cultivated Land Use
Change on Total Land Productivity ................. 263
8.3.3 Recommendations for Land Use Policies ............. 266
8.4 Summary .................................................. 267
References .................................................... 268
Conclusions and Further Research .............................. 271
Appendix 1 VBA Program of RAS Method ......................... 277
Appendix 2 SAM of Jiangxi Province in 2007 ................... 281
Index ......................................................... 297
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