Executive Summary ............................................... 1
Background and Major Issues .................................. 1
Regional Analysis ............................................ 2
Subregional Analyses ......................................... 2
Lake Michigan Basin Groundwater-Flow Model ................ 2
Estimation of Streamflows ................................. 2
Water Withdrawals, Return Flows, and Consumption .......... 2
Local Analyses ............................................... 3
Groundwater/Surface-Water Interaction ..................... 3
Assessment of Climate-Change Effects ...................... 3
Assessment of Uncertainty of Flow, Water-Level, and
Base-Flow Reduction Estimates ............................. 3
Challenges and Lessons Learned ............................... 4
Introduction .................................................... 5
Purpose and Scope ............................................ 5
Previous Studies ............................................. 6
Approach to the Pilot ........................................ 7
Great Lakes Basin Water-Availability Issues ..................... 7
Characteristics of the Great Lakes Basin ........................ 9
Regional Water Availability Analysis for the U.S. Great Lakes
Basin .......................................................... 12
Predevelopment Conditions ................................... 12
Stocks (Storage) ......................................... 12
Flows and Processes ...................................... 14
Postdevelopment Conditions .................................. 17
Surface-Water Diversions Into and Out of the Great
Lakes Basin .............................................. 19
Regional Water Withdrawals and Water Use ................. 19
Regional Water Budgets Through Time ...................... 27
Regional Indicators ......................................... 32
Summary and Importance of Regional Analysis ................. 35
Need for Subregional and Local Analyses ..................... 35
Subregional Water-Availability Analysis Within the U.S. Great
Lakes Basin .................................................... 35
Groundwater ................................................. 35
Groundwater-Flow Model ................................... 37
Groundwater Budget ....................................... 40
Groundwater-Availability Summary Indicators .............. 47
Groundwater-Flow Model and Groundwater Availability ...... 55
Surface Water ............................................... 55
Water Withdrawals and Water Use ............................. 63
Local-Scale Water Availability Analysis Within the U.S. Great
Lakes Basin .................................................... 73
Inset Groundwater-Flow Model Integrating Groundwater and
Surface-Water Availability .................................. 73
Groundwater/Surface-Water Interaction .................... 77
Response to Climate Change ............................... 77
Monitoring and Network Analysis ............................. 83
Example Bootstrap Analysis for Surf асе-Water
Monitoring Network ....................................... 83
Example Model-Uncertainty Analysis Using the Local
Groundwater-Flow Model ................................... 85
Summary of Pilot Study ......................................... 90
Challenges for Future Water-Availability Studies ............... 93
References ..................................................... 94
Acknowledgments ............................................... 103
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