Preface ........................................................ ix
Acknowledgments ................................................ xi
List of figures .............................................. xiii
List of tables ................................................ xix
List of abbreviations and acronyms ............................ xxv
List of contributors ......................................... xxix
List of authors .............................................. xxxi
Introduction ............................................... xxxiii
1 Sources of anthropogenic pollution in the Nordic Seas
and Arctic ................................................... 1
1.1 Radioactive contamination: classification and
description of sources .................................. 1
1.1.1 Classification of sources ........................ 1
1.1.2 Nuclear power plants (NPPs) ...................... 4
1.1.3 Nuclear industry enterprises ..................... 6
1.1.4 Scientific and research reactors and
laboratories .................................... 14
1.1.5 Special combines ................................ 15
1.1.6 Nuclear weapons tests and "peaceful" nuclear
explosions ...................................... 16
1.1.7 Military bases, nuclear icebreakers, and
submarines ...................................... 22
1.1.8 Miscellaneous accidents ......................... 24
1.2 Radioactive pollution: major Russian nuclear
industries ............................................. 25
1.2.1 The Mayak Production Association, Chelyabinsk ... 25
1.2.2 The Siberian Chemical Combine, Tomsk-7 .......... 40
1.2.3 The Mining Chemical Combine. Krasnoyarsk-26 ..... 47
1.3 Non-radioactive pollution .............................. 51
1.3.1 Main sources of marine pollution in the
Russian Arctic .................................. 51
1.3.2 Distribution of pollution in the Russian
Arctic Seas and coastal areas ................... 56
2 Study region and environmental datasets ..................... 87
2.1 Geographical description of the study region ........... 87
2.1.1 The Ob' and Yenisei River systems ............... 88
2.1.2 Kara Sea region ................................ 106
2.1.3 The Nordic Seas and adjacent seas .............. 125
2.2 Description of environmental and pollution data ....... 133
2.2.1 Databases and information system ............... 133
2.2.2 Environmental data ............................. 138
2.2.3 Radioactive and non-radioactive pollution
data ........................................... 144
3 Generic model system (GMS) for simulation of radioactive
spread in the aquatic environment .......................... 147
3.1 Rationale, concept, and structure of the GMS .......... 147
3.1.1 GMS structure and data streams ................. 148
3.1.2 Modeling management ............................ 150
3.2 Atlantic and Arctic Ocean model ....................... 150
3.2.1 General model description ...................... 150
3.2.2 Radionuclide tracer module ..................... 154
3.2.3 Model validation results ....................... 155
3.2.4 Extension and validation of the Arctic/North
Atlantic model ................................. 155
3.3 Kara Sea shelf sea model .............................. 160
3.3.1 General model description ...................... 160
3.3.2 Model validation results ....................... 164
3.4 The Ob' and Yenisei River and estuary models .......... 171
3.4.1 One-dimensional model to simulate the
transport of radionuclides in a river system-
RIVTOX ......................................... 172
3.4.2 Numerical model for three-dimensional
dispersion simulation of radionuclides in
stratified water bodies-THREETOX ............... 184
3.4.3 River model validation results ................. 198
4 Studies of potential radioactive spread in the Nordic
Seas and Arctic using the generic model system (GMS) ....... 213
4.1 Simulation of past contamination of the Nordic
Seas and Arctic from anthropogenic releases ........... 214
4.1.1 River and estuary transport and dilution of
radioactive pollutants from rivers to the
Kara Sea ....................................... 214
4.1.2 Transport and dilution of radioactive waste
and dissolved pollutants in the Kara Sea ....... 241
4.1.3 Transport and dilution of radioactive waste
and dissolved pollutants from all sources ...... 248
4.2 Scenarios for potential future releases of
radioactivity ......................................... 258
4.2.1 "The Mayak PA" scenario ........................ 258
4.2.2 "Krasnoyarsk" scenario ......................... 258
4.2.3 "Tomsk" scenario ............................... 261
4.2.4 "C02-doubling" scenario ........................ 262
4.2.5 "Submarine" scenarios .......................... 262
4.3 Assessments of potential accidental releases for the
21st century .......................................... 263
4.3.1 Potential radioactive contamination from
rivers to the Kara Sea ....................... 264
4.3.2 Potential radioactive contamination in the
Kara Sea ....................................... 269
4.4 Transport of radioactivity in the Arctic and
possible impact of climate change ..................... 276
4.4.1 Accident scenario of 90Sr from the Ob' and
Yenisei Rivers ................................. 276
4.4.2 Spread of accidentally released 90Sr under
present and 2 * CO2 warming scenarios .......... 277
4.5 Potential transport of radioactivity from submarine
accidents ............................................. 278
4.5.1 Local model simulations ........................ 279
4.5.2 Large-scale model simulations .................. 280
5 Studies of the spread of non-radioactive pollutants in
the Arctic using the generic model system (GMS) ............ 283
5.1 Approach to simulation of pollutants in the aquatic
environment ........................................... 283
5.1.1 Persistent organic pollutants .................. 283
5.1.2 Basic processes and equations for modeling ..... 284
5.1.3 Modeling POP transport in the environment ...... 288
5.2 Modeling PCB spread in Arctic rivers and coastal
waters using the GMS .................................. 295
5.2.1 Modification of the models for simulation of
PCBs ........................................... 295
5.2.2 GMS application to simulate the transport and
fate of PCBs released in the Yenisei River
and estuary .................................... 298
5.3 Modeling petroleum hydrocarbon spread using the GMS ... 299
5.3.1 Processes of oil spread in the marine
environment .................................... 299
5.3.2 Modeling oil spread in the marine
environment .................................... 303
6 Assessment and input to risk management .................... 309
6.1 Introduction .......................................... 309
6.1.1 Purpose, endpoints, and philosophy ............. 309
6.1.2 Source term characteristics .................... 310
6.1.3 Environmental characteristics .................. 310
6.1.4 Time frames and societal assumptions ........... 310
6.2 Scenarios ............................................. 311
6.2.1 Source term scenarios .......................... 311
6.2.2 Climate scenarios .............................. 311
6.3 Formulation and implementation of dose models ......... 312
6.4 Results ............................................... 313
6.5 Conclusions ........................................... 321
APPENDICES
A Time series of annual average concentrations of
radionuclides in water and sediments by accident
scenario and location used for dose calculations ........ 325
В Doses to individuals in critical groups from all
accident scenarios given by radionuclide and exposure
pathway ................................................. 335
Afterword ..................................................... 373
References .................................................... 375
Index ......................................................... 403
|
