Preface page ................................................. xiii
1 Climate change and its impacts: a short summary .............. 1
What is covered in this chapter? ............................. 1
The climate has changed ...................................... 1
Are ice and snow cover and sea level consistent with the
temperature trends? .......................................... 3
Are observations of biological systems also consistent with
the measurements of a changed climate? ....................... 5
Are human activities responsible for this climate change? .... 5
How is the climate going to change further in the future? .... 9
Climate models .............................................. 12
What will be the impact of future climate change? ........... 13
What is the combined effect of these impacts regionally? .... 21
How can we characterise the overall vulnerability to
climate change? ............................................. 21
What does this mean for development? ........................ 27
2 Greenhouse gas emissions .................................... 30
What is covered in this chapter? ............................ 30
Contributions to warming .................................... 30
Kyoto greenhouse gases ...................................... 32
Other gases and aerosols .................................... 40
How will emissions develop in the future? ................... 42
Emission projections ........................................ 46
Are actual emissions higher than what scenarios project? .... 49
So what does this mean? ..................................... 49
3 Keeping climate change within sustainable limits: where to
draw the line? .............................................. 51
What is covered in this chapter? ............................ 51
What does the Climate Convention say about it? .............. 51
What risks and whose risks? ................................. 52
Should science give us the answer? .......................... 52
What are the implications of stabilizing greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere? ........................... 55
How can drastic emissions reductions be realized? ........... 58
Better to adapt to climate change than to avoid it? ......... 65
What are the costs? ......................................... 68
Risk management ............................................. 74
Political judgement: the EU's 2 degree target ............... 74
Cost-benefit comparison ..................................... 75
So what do we know now? ..................................... 76
4 Development first ........................................... 78
What is covered in this chapter? ............................ 78
Development and climate change .............................. 78
What does climate change mean for development? .............. 80
Making development more sustainable ......................... 83
Mainstreaming climate change in development policies ........ 84
Changing development paths is not so simple ................. 97
How to make it happen? ..................................... 100
The key points from this chapter ........................... 103
5 Energy Supply .............................................. 105
What is covered in this chapter? ........................... 105
Energy and development ..................................... 105
Where is energy used? ...................................... 111
Greenhouse gas emissions ................................... 114
The electricity sector and the emissions reduction
challenge .................................................. 115
Emission reduction options in the electricity sector ....... 115
Power plant efficiency and fuel switching .................. 116
Nuclear power .............................................. 118
Hydropower ................................................. 121
Wind ....................................................... 123
Bioenergy .................................................. 126
Geothermal energy .......................................... 130
Solar ...................................................... 131
Ocean energy ............................................... 135
C02 capture and storage and hydrogen ....................... 136
Comparing CO2 emissions .................................... 141
Comparing costs ............................................ 142
So how can climate policy transform the electricity
supply system? ............................................. 144
What policy intervention is needed? ........................ 146
So what does this mean? .................................... 149
6 Transportation ............................................. 151
What is covered in this chapter? ........................... 151
Need for transportation .................................... 151
Development and climate implications ....................... 153
How can transport emissions be reduced? .................... 156
Reducing demand ............................................ 156
Shifting transport modes ................................... 158
Freight transport and modal shift .......................... 163
More efficient fuel use .................................... 164
Change the fuel ............................................ 167
So what can be achieved in terms of reduction of energy
use and C02 emissions? ..................................... 175
How do we get it done? ..................................... 176
7 Buildings .................................................. 181
What is covered in this chapter? ........................... 181
Developments in the buildings sector ....................... 181
How can we reduce energy use and greenhouse gas
emissions? ................................................. 185
Reduce energy needs ........................................ 186
Use energy more efficiently ................................ 188
Change the energy source ................................... 195
Change behaviour ........................................... 199
How does this all fit together? ............................ 201
How to realize this large potential? ....................... 201
The building sector challenge .............................. 207
8 Industry and waste management .............................. 209
What is covered in this chapter? ........................... 209
Trends in industrial production ............................ 209
Trends in waste management ................................. 211
Greenhouse gas emissions ................................... 212
Opportunities to reduce emissions .......................... 213
Iron and steel ............................................. 214
Cement ..................................................... 217
Chemicals and petroleum refining ........................... 218
Other industries ........................................... 220
Generic reduction options .................................. 222
Management of post consumer waste .......................... 223
Overall reduction potential ................................ 224
How to make it happen? ..................................... 226
Future challenges .......................................... 233
9 Land use, agriculture, and forestry ........................ 235
What is covered in this chapter? ........................... 235
Land use trends ............................................ 235
Land use and greenhouse gas emissions ...................... 237
How can emission be reduced and carbon reservoirs
increased? ................................................. 241
How much can agriculture and forestry contribute to
controlling climate change? ................................ 244
What can bioenergy contribute? ............................. 250
What policies are available? ............................... 252
Interaction with adaptation and sustainable development .... 258
So what does this mean for the role of agriculture and
forestry? .................................................. 259
10 How does it fit together? .................................. 261
What is covered in this chapter? ........................... 261
Adding up the sector reduction potentials .................. 261
How does this compare with global top-down studies? ........ 265
How far do we get with these reduction potentials? ......... 266
Do we need to look at geo-engineering options as well? ..... 268
How is the overall mitigation picture for individual
countries? ................................................. 270
A closer look at the cost of mitigation actions ............ 272
What about the costs for the economy as a whole? ........... 273
Investments ................................................ 275
How big are the co-benefits? ............................... 277
Technology transfer ........................................ 279
Technology development ..................................... 284
The relation between mitigation and adaptation ............. 284
11 Policies and measures ...................................... 287
What is covered in this chapter? ........................... 287
Realizing mitigation potential requires government
policies ................................................... 287
Types of policy instruments ................................ 288
Regulations ................................................ 289
Taxes and levies ........................................... 292
Tradable permits ........................................... 293
Voluntary agreements ....................................... 296
Subsidies and other financial incentives ................... 298
Research and development ................................... 299
Information instruments .................................... 299
Voluntary actions .......................................... 303
Non-climate policies ....................................... 304
What are the strengths and weaknesses of the various
policy instruments? ........................................ 304
What are the lessons from practical experience? ............ 305
National policy packages ................................... 311
Implementation and enforcement ............................. 316
12 International climate change agreements .................... 318
What is covered in this chapter? ........................... 318
Why are international agreements needed? ................... 318
The Climate Change Convention and the Kyoto Protocol:
lessons learned ............................................ 319
Climate Change Convention .................................. 319
Kyoto Protocol ............................................. 322
Are countries meeting their emission reduction
obligations? ............................................... 326
Clean Development Mechanism ................................ 328
Institutional infrastructure ............................... 332
New agreements beyond 2012 ................................. 334
Contours of a Copenhagen Protocol .......................... 347
Index ......................................................... 351
The colour plates will be found between pages 208 and 209.
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