Contents ........................................................ i
Zusammenfassung ................................................. 1
Abstract ........................................................ 3
1 Introduction ................................................. 5
2 Probabilistic forecasts of convective precipitation .......... 9
2.1 Convective precipitation and its Observation ............ 9
2.1.1 Convective Precipitation ........................ 10
2.1.2 Observation of Precipitation with Radar ......... 11
2.2 Forecasts based on Observations ........................ 12
2.2.1 Brief review of existing forecasting methods .... 12
2.2.2 European Radar Composite ........................ 13
2.2.3 Radar Tracker Rad-TRAM .......................... 14
2.3 Forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction ........ 19
2.3.1 COSMO-DE-EPS .................................... 19
2.3.2 Probabilistic: Forecasts with COSMO-DE-EPS ...... 24
2.4 Quality of Probability forecasts of discrete
predictands ............................................ 26
2.4.1 Aspects of quality .............................. 26
2.4.2 Quality measures ................................ 26
2.5 Calibration of COSMO-DE-EPS forecasts .................. 31
3 Quality of probabilistic forecasts - Selected case
studies ..................................................... 35
3.1 IOP 14: 9 August 2007 (Synoptic scale ascent) .......... 37
3.1.1 Synoptic overview ............................... 37
3.1.2 Quality of probabilistic forecasts .............. 39
3.1.3 Discussion ...................................... 45
3.2 IOP 15: 12 August 2007 (Regime change) ................. 47
3.2.1 Synoptic overview ............................... 47
3.2.2 Quality of probabilistic forecasts .............. 48
3.2.3 Discussion ...................................... 54
3.3 IOP 16: 15 August 2007 (Forced frontal convection) ..... 56
3.3.1 Synoptic overview ............................... 56
3.3.2 Quality of probabilistic forecasts .............. 58
3.3.3 Discussion ...................................... 65
3.4 Summary ................................................ 65
4 Quality of probabilistic forecasts - Overview over general
performance ................................................. 67
4.1 Overview over relative frequency of event in
observations ........................................... 67
4.2 Quality of probabilistic Rad-TRAM ...................... 68
4.3 Quality of COSMO-DE-EPS ................................ 72
4.3.1 Quality of uncalibrated COSMO-DE-EPS
probabilistic forecasts ......................... 72
4.3.2 Quality of calibrated COSMO-DE-EPS
probabilistic forecasts ......................... 75
4.3.3 Effect of Calibration on quality of COSMO-DE-
EPS probabilities ............................... 77
4.4 Comparison of performances of Rad-TRAM and COSMO-DE-
EPS .................................................... 79
4.5 Discussion ............................................. 80
5 Blending of probabilistic forecasts from Rad-TRAM and
COSMO-DE EPS ................................................ 82
5.1 Literature overview .................................... 82
5.2 Method for blending the probabilistic forecasts ........ 84
5.3 Quality of blended probabilities ....................... 89
5.3.1 Skill of blended forecasts in the case
studies ......................................... 89
5.3.2 Skill of blended forecasts over entire period ... 94
5.4 Discussion ............................................. 96
6 Discussion .................................................. 97
7 Conclusions and Outlook .................................... 101
A List of abbreviations and symbols ........................... 105
Bibliography .................................................. 108
Acknowledgements .............................................. 114
Curriculum Vitae .............................................. 115
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