Authors for this volume ...................................... xiii
Preface ........................................................ xv
Guidance Report 1.1 Quality assurance in model-based water
management: Better modelling practices .......................... 1
Abstract ........................................................ 1
Keywords ........................................................ 1
1 Why Quality Assurance for Model-based Water Management? ...... 1
1.1 Problems in modelling ................................... 1
1.2 Examples of poor quality of the modelling process ....... 2
1.2.1 Bloopers in modelling ............................ 2
1.2.2 Lack of documentation of model capabilities and
limitations ...................................... 4
1.2.3 Miscommunication and lack of public
participation .................................... 4
1.3 Context and objectives of this guidance document......... 5
2 On Quality Assurance ......................................... 9
2.1 On quality .............................................. 9
2.2 Quality approaches in a historical perspective .......... 9
2.3 Quality assurance and ISO .............................. 11
2.3.1 The International Organization for
Standardization (ISO) ........................... 11
2.3.2 ISO standards history ........................... 11
2.3.3 ISO families of standards ....................... 12
2.3.4 ISO 9000 quality standards in general ........... 13
2.3.5 Are ISO 9000 quality standards sufficient for
modelling? ...................................... 14
2.4 On standards and guidelines ............................ 15
2.4.1 Informal standards versus formal standards ...... 15
2.4.2 ISO and modelling standards ..................... 15
3 State-of-the-art QA for Model-based Water Management ........ 17
3.1 Quality Assurance defined for modelling ................ 17
3.2 Guiding principles - three different approaches ........ 17
3.3 Type of QA guidelines for modelling .................... 19
3.3.1 Classification .................................. 19
3.3.2 Development stage and prevalence of QA
guidelines ...................................... 20
3.4 Existing guidelines .................................... 21
3.5 Discussion of QA in water resources modelling .......... 21
3.5.1 Key aspects in QA guidelines .................... 21
3.5.2 Organisational requirements for QA guidelines
to be effective ................................. 26
4 Modelling Knowledge Base and Support Tool ................... 27
4.1 QA in the HarmoniQuA approach .......................... 27
4.2 Design considerations of modelling KB and MoST ......... 29
4.3 Modelling KB in MoST ................................... 30
4.3.1 MoST and Quality Assurance (QA) ................. 30
4.3.2 Structure and guiding principles of the
Knowledge Base (KB) ............................. 31
4.3.3 Terminology and glossary ........................ 33
4.4 Modelling guidance ..................................... 34
4.4.1 Decomposition ................................... 34
4.4.2 Steps and tasks ................................. 35
4.4.3 Examples of description of tasks ................ 36
4.4.4 Methods ......................................... 39
4.5 Modelling Support Tool, MoST .......................... 40
4.5.1 Introduction to MoST ............................ 40
4.5.2 Starting MoST ................................... 40
4.5.3 Setting-up modelling projects ................... 41
4.5.4 Guiding modelling projects ...................... 42
4.5.5 Monitor modelling projects ...................... 45
4.5.6 Reporting modelling projects .................... 49
4.5.7 Training material and help ...................... 50
5 References .................................................. 51
6 Appendices .................................................. 53
Appendix A Functional requirements and design ................. 53
A.l Modelling KB and associated tools ...................... 53
A.2 Modelling Support Tool, MoST ........................... 58
Appendix В Details of HarmoniQuA's modelling guidelines ....... 61
B.l Terminology ............................................ 61
B.2 Steps and tasks of HarmoniQuA's modelling guidelines ... 65
B.3 Details of the task 'Determine requirements'
(Step 1) ............................................... 72
B.4 Details of the task 'Validation' (Step 4) .............. 80
B.5 Methods described in HarmoniQuA's modelling
guidelines ............................................. 83
Guidance Report 1.2 Model calibration and validation in
model-based water management ................................... 93
Abstract ....................................................... 93
Keywords ....................................................... 93
About this Guideline ........................................... 94
1 Executive Summary ........................................... 95
2 Calibration Framework ....................................... 99
3 Model Parameterisation and Choice of Calibration
Parameters ................................................. 102
3.1 Principle of parameter parsimony ...................... 103
3.2 Parameterisation methodologies ........................ 104
3.3 Sensitivity analysis .................................. 106
3.4 Use of prior information .............................. 108
4 Calibration Data and Choice of Calibration Objectives ...... 109
4.1 Data requirements ..................................... 110
4.2 Numerical performance measures ........................ 1ll
4.3 Scaling issues ........................................ 115
4.4 Weighting observations and aggregating performance
measures .............................................. 116
5 Calibration Methods ........................................ 119
5.1 Manual calibration .................................... 120
5.2 Automatic calibration ................................. 121
5.3 Expert systems ........................................ 122
5.4 Recommendations ....................................... 122
6 Optimisation Algorithms .................................... 123
6.1 Optimisation problem .................................. 124
6.2 Local optimisation procedures ......................... 124
6.3 Global optimisation procedures ........................ 126
6.4 Recommendations ....................................... 129
6.5 Computational requirements ............................ 132
7 Multi-objective Optimisation ............................... 133
7.1 Optimisation problem .................................. 134
7.2 Optimisation using aggregation ........................ 135
7.3 Optimisation using Pareto dominance ................... 136
7.4 Single vs. multi-objective optimisation ............... 137
8 Model Validation ........................................... 138
8.1 Hierarchical test scheme .............................. 139
8.1.1 Split-sample test .............................. 139
8.1.2 Differential split-sample test ................. 142
8.1.3 Proxy-basin test ............................... 142
8.1.4 Proxy-basin, differential split-sample test .... 143
8.2 Validation tests based on model residuals ............. 143
9 Uncertainty Assessment ..................................... 144
9.1 Uncertainty sources ................................... 144
9.2 Parameter non-uniqueness .............................. 145
9.3 Uncertainty propagation ............................... 147
10 Application Examples ....................................... 148
10.1 Lumped, conceptual rainfall-runoff model (MIKE 11/
NAM) .................................................. 148
10.1.1 Model description .............................. 148
10.1.2 Model setup .................................... 150
10.1.3 Calibration parameters ......................... 150
10.1.4 Calibration methods ............................ 151
10.1.5 Results ........................................ 152
10.2 Groundwater model (MODFLOW) ........................... 154
10.2.1 Model description .............................. 154
10.2.2 Model parameterisation ......................... 155
10.2.3 Calibration objectives ......................... 157
10.2.4 Calibration parameters ......................... 157
10.2.5 Calibration method ............................. 158
10.2.6 Results ........................................ 159
10.3 Distributed, integrated model (MIKE SHE) .............. 160
10.3.1 Model description .............................. 160
10.3.2 Model parameterisation ......................... 161
10.3.3 Calibration objectives ......................... 163
10.3.4 Calibration parameters ......................... 163
10.3.5 Calibration method ............................. 164
10.3.6 Results ........................................ 164
10.4 Water quality model (ESWAT) ........................... 165
10.4.1 Model description .............................. 166
10.4.2 Model setup .................................... 167
10.4.3 Calibration objectives ......................... 167
10.4.4 Calibration parameters ......................... 169
10.4.5 Calibration method ............................. 170
10.4.6 Results ........................................ 171
11 References ................................................. 175
12 Software ................................................... 181
12.1 PEST .................................................. 181
12.2 UCODE_2005 ............................................ 184
12.3 AUTOCAL ............................................... 186
12.4 GLOBE ................................................. 188
Guidance Report 1.3 Review of sensitivity analysis methods .... 191
Abstract ...................................................... 191
Ceywords ...................................................... 191
1 Introduction ............................................... 192
1.1 Aims and objectives ................................... 192
1.2 Target audience ....................................... 192
1.3 Benefits of sensitivity analysis ...................... 192
1.4 What is sensitivity analysis? ......................... 193
1.5 Sensitivity analysis and the Water Framework
Directive ............................................. 194
1.6 Content and overview .................................. 195
2 Decision Tree for Choosing a Sensitivity Analysis .......... 197
2.1.1 Sensitivity aim/setting ........................ 197
2.1.2 Computational cost ............................. 199
3 Detailed Methodology ....................................... 202
3.1 Examples .............................................. 204
3.1.1 Example 1 ...................................... 204
3.1.2 Example 2 ...................................... 204
3.2 Experimental design of SA (sampling) .................. 205
3.2.1 Screening design ............................... 205
3.2.2 Random sampling ................................ 205
3.2.3 Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) ................. 206
3.2.4 Correlation control ............................ 206
3.2.5 Quasi-random sampling with low-discrepancy
sequences ...................................... 206
3.3 Methods of sensitivity analysis ....................... 207
3.3.1 Graphical methods and visualisation ............ 207
3.3.2 Screening methods .............................. 215
3.3.3 Local methods .................................. 217
3.3.4 Global methods ................................. 219
3.3.5 Sensitivity and model emulators ................ 229
4 Case Studies ............................................... 232
4.1 Modelling floodplain hydrological processes ........... 232
4.2 Flood inundation models ............................... 233
4.3 Water quality modelling ............................... 235
5 Conclusions ................................................ 240
6 Glossary ................................................... 241
7 References ................................................. 247
8 Appendix ................................................... 254
8.1 Screening methods ..................................... 254
8.1.1 Morris ......................................... 254
8.2 Local methods ......................................... 255
8.2.1 The finite difference method ................... 255
8.2.2 Direct method for sensitivity analysis ......... 256
8.2.3 Green function's method ........................ 257
8.3 Global methods ........................................ 258
8.3.1 Variance based methods ......................... 258
8.3.2 Regression analysis ............................ 263
8.3.3 Regionalised sensitivity analysis .............. 263
8.3.4 Entropy ........................................ 264
8.3.5 Sensitivity and model emulators ................ 265
Guidance Report 1.4 Uncertainty analysis in model-based
water management .............................................. 271
Abstract ...................................................... 271
Keywords ...................................................... 271
1 Why is Uncertainty Assessment Important? ................... 271
1.1 Uncertainty and risk in decision making ............... 271
1.2 Water Framework Directive - requirements .............. 274
1.3 A motivating example .................................. 275
1.4 Context and objective of this document ................ 278
2 When is Uncertainty Assessment Required? ................... 282
2.1 The modelling process ................................. 282
2.2 Uncertainty aspects ................................... 284
3 What is Uncertainty? ....................................... 286
3.1 Definitions ........................................... 286
3.2 Taxonomy of imperfect knowledge ....................... 289
3.3 Sources of uncertainty ................................ 291
3.4 Nature of uncertainty ................................. 291
3.5 The uncertainty matrix ................................ 292
4 Methodologies for Uncertainty Assessment ................... 293
4.1 Data uncertainty ...................................... 294
4.2 Error propagation equations ........................... 296
4.3 Expert elicitation .................................... 298
4.4 Extended peer review (review by stakeholders) ......... 300
4.5 Inverse modelling (parameter estimation) .............. 301
4.6 Inverse modelling (predictive uncertainty) ............ 303
4.7 Monte Carlo Analysis .................................. 304
4.8 Multiple model simulation ............................. 306
4.9 NUSAP ................................................. 308
4.10 Quality assurance ..................................... 310
4.11 Scenario analysis ..................................... 312
4.12 Sensitivity analysis .................................. 314
4.13 Stakeholder involvement ............................... 315
4.14 Uncertainty matrix .................................... 317
5 How to Select the Appropriate Methodology for Uncertainty
Assessment ................................................. 319
5.1 Introduction .......................................... 319
5.2 Methodologies according to modelling process and
level of ambition ..................................... 319
5.3 Methodologies according to source and type of
uncertainty ........................................... 321
6 Illustrative Cases ......................................... 321
6.1 Case 1: Designing measures - nutrient
load/comprehensive modelling .......................... 321
6.2 Case 2: Designing measures - water scarcity/basic
modelling ............................................. 323
6.3 Case 3: Implementation - Real-time forecasting
(of Case 2) ........................................... 323
6.4 Case 4: Evaluation - Post project appraisal
(of Case 1) ........................................... 329
7 References ................................................. 329
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