Economic report of the president, transmitted to the congress february 2010 together with the annual report of the council of economic advisors. - Washington: United States Government Printing Office, 2010. - 258 p.: ill. - ISBN 978-0-16-084824-7  Место хранения:   022 | Институт экономики и организации промышленного производства | Новосибирск

Оглавление / Contents

CHAPTER 1. TO RESCUE, REBALANCE, AND REBUILD ................... 25 Rescuing an Economy in Freefall ................................ 26 Rescuing the Economy from the Great Recession ............... 28 Crisis and Recovery in the World Economy .................... 29 Rebalancing the Economy on the Path to Full Employment ......... 29 Saving and Investment ....................................... 29 Addressing the Long-Run Fiscal Challenge .................... 31 Building a Safer Financial System ........................... 32 Rebuilding a Stronger Economy .................................. 33 Reforming Health Care ....................................... 33 Strengthening the American Labor Force ...................... 35 Transforming the Energy Sector and Addressing Climate Change ...................................................... 36 Fostering Productivity Growth Through Innovation and Trade ....................................................... 37 Conclusion ..................................................... 38 CHAPTER 2. RESCUING THE ECONOMY FROM THE GREAT RECESSION ....... 39 An Economy in Freefall ......................................... 39 The Run-Up to the Recession ................................. 40 The Downturn ................................................ 41 Wall Street and Main Street ................................. 44 The Unprecedented Policy Response .............................. 46 Monetary Policy ............................................. 47 Financial Rescue ............................................ 49 Fiscal Stimulus ............................................. 51 Housing Policy .............................................. 55 The Effects of the Policies .................................... 56 The Financial Sector ........................................ 57 Housing ..................................................... 60 Overall Economic Activity ................................... 63 The Labor Market ............................................ 68 The Challenges Ahead ........................................... 72 Deteriorating Forecasts ..................................... 72 The Administration Forecast ................................. 75 Responsible Policies to Spur Job Creation ................... 78 Conclusion ..................................................... 79 CHAPTER 3. CRISIS AND RECOVERY IN THE WORLD ECONOMY ............ 81 International Dimensions of the Crisis ......................... 82 Spread of the Financial Shock ............................... 82 The Collapse of World Trade ................................. 87 The Collapse in Financial Flows ............................. 89 The Decline in Output Around the Globe ...................... 90 Policy Responses Around the Globe .............................. 93 Monetary Policy in the Crisis ............................... 93 Central Bank Liquidity Swaps ................................ 96 Fiscal Policy in the Crisis ................................. 98 Trade Policy in the Crisis ................................. 100 The Role of International Institutions ........................ 100 TheG-20 .................................................... 100 The International Monetary Fund ............................ 101 The Beginning of Recovery Around the Globe .................... 102 The Impact of Fiscal Policy ................................ 104 The World Economy in the Near Term ........................ 106 Global Imbalances in the Crisis ............................ 108 Conclusion .................................................... 1ll CHAPTER 4. SAVING AND INVESTMENT ............................. 113 The Path of Consumption Spending .............................. 114 The Determinants of Saving ................................. 115 Implications for Recent and Future Saving Behavior ......... 117 The Future of the Housing Market and Construction ............. 120 The Housing Market ......................................... 121 Commercial Real Estate ..................................... 123 Business Investment ........................................... 126 Investment in the Recovery ................................. 126 Investment in the Long Run ................................. 127 The Current Account ........................................... 129 Determinants of the Current Account ........................ 129 The Current Account in the Recovery and in the Long Run .... 132 Steps to Encourage Exports ................................. 133 Conclusion ................................................... 135 CHAPTER 5. ADDRESSING THE LONG-RUN FISCAL CHALLENGE ........... 137 The Long-Run Fiscal Challenge ................................. 137 Sources of the Long-Run Fiscal Challenge ................... 139 The Role of the Recovery Act and Other Rescue Operations ... 143 An Anchor for Fiscal Policy ................................... 144 The Effects of Budget Deficits ............................. 145 Feasible Long-Run Fiscal Policies .......................... 146 The Choice of a Fiscal Anchor .............................. 148 Reaching the Fiscal Target .................................... 149 General Principles ......................................... 149 Comprehensive Health Care Reform ........................... 150 Restoring Balance to the Tax Code .......................... 151 Eliminating Wasteful Spending .............................. 155 Conclusion: The Distance Still to Go .......................... 156 CHAPTER 6. BUILDING A SAFER FINANCIAL SYSTEM .................. 159 What Is Financial Intermediation? ............................. 160 The Economics of Financial Intermediation .................. 160 Types of Financial Intermediaries .......................... 163 The Regulation of Financial Intermediation in the United States ..................................................... 166 Financial Crises: The Collapse of Financial Intermediation .... 170 Confidence Contagion ....................................... 170 Counterparty Contagion ..................................... 172 Coordination Contagion ..................................... 173 Preventing Future Crises: Regulatory Reform ................... 174 Promote Robust Supervision and Regulation of Financial Firms ...................................................... 175 Establish Comprehensive Regulation of Financial Markets .... 176 Provide the Government with the Tools It Needs to Manage Financial Crises ........................................... 178 Raise International Regulatory Standards and Improve International Cooperation .................................. 179 Protect Consumers and Investors from Financial Abuse ....... 179 Conclusion .................................................... 180 CHAPTER 7. REFORMING HEALTH CARE .............................. 181 The Current State of the U.S. Health Care Sector .............. 182 Rising Health Spending in the United States ................ 182 Market Failures in the Current U.S. Health Care System: Theoretical Background ..................................... 185 System-Wide Evidence of Inefficient Spending ............... 188 Declining Coverage and Strains on Particular Groups and Sectors .................................................... 191 Health Policies Enacted in 2009 ............................... 196 Expansion of the CHIP Program .............................. 197 Subsidized COBRA Coverage .................................. 197 Temporary Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) Increase ................................................... 199 Recovery Act Measures to Improve the Quality and Efficiency of Health Care .................................. 201 2009 Health Reform Legislation ................................ 202 Insurance Market Reforms: Strengthening and Securing Coverage ................................................... 202 Expansions in Health Insurance Coverage Through the Exchange ................................................... 205 Economic and Health Benefits of Expanding Health Insurance Coverage ......................................... 206 Reducing the Growth Rate of Health Care Costs in the Public and Private Sectors ............................. 207 The Economic Benefits of Slowing the Growth Rate of Health Care Costs .......................................... 210 Conclusion .................................................... 211 CHAPTER 8. STRENGTHENING THE AMERICAN LABOR FORCE ............. 213 Challenges Facing American Workers ............................ 214 Unemployment ............................................... 214 Sectoral Change ............................................ 216 Stagnating Incomes for Middle-Class Families ............... 217 Policies to Support Workers ................................... 219 Education and Training: The Groundwork for Long-Term Prosperity ................................................. 221 Benefits of Education ...................................... 221 Trends in U.S. Educational Attainment ...................... 222 U.S. Student Achievement ................................... 226 A Path Toward Improved Educational Performance ................ 227 Postsecondary Education .................................... 228 Training and Adult Education ............................... 229 Elementary and Secondary Education ......................... 231 Early Childhood Education .................................. 233 Conclusion .................................................... 234 CHAPTER 9. TRANSFORMING THE ENERGY SECTOR AND ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE ..................................... 235 Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Climate, and Economic Well-Being .... 236 Greenhouse Gases ........................................... 237 Temperature Change ......................................... 238 Impact on Economic Well-Being .............................. 239 Jump-Starting the Transition to Clean Energy .................. 243 Recovery Act Investments in Clean Energy ................... 243 Short-Run Macroeconomic Effects of the Clean Energy Investments ................................................ 246 Other Domestic Actions to Mitigate Climate Change ............. 247 Market-Based Approaches to Advance the Clean Energy Transformation and Address Climate Change ..................... 248 Cap-and-Trade Program Basics ............................... 248 Ways to Contain Costs in an Effective Cap-and-Trade System ..................................................... 250 Coverage of Gases and Industries ........................... 253 The American Clean Energy and Security Act ................. 254 International Action on Climate Change Is Needed .............. 255 Partnerships with Major Developed and Emerging Economies .................................................. 256 Phasing Out Fossil Fuel Subsidies .......................... 257 Conclusion .................................................... 257 CHAPTER 10. FOSTERING PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH THROUGH INNOVATION AND TRADE ......................................... 259 The Role of Productivity Growth in Driving Living Standards ..................................................... 261 Recent Trends in Productivity in the United States ......... 262 Sources of Productivity Growth ............................. 264 Fostering Productivity Growth Through Innovation .............. 266 The Importance of Basic Research ........................... 267 Private Research and Experimentation ....................... 269 Protection of Intellectual Property Rights ................. 270 Spurring Progress in National Priority Areas ............... 272 Increasing Openness and Transparency ....................... 272 Trade as an Engine of Productivity Growth and Higher Living Standards ..................................................... 274 The United States and International Trade .................. 275 Sources of Productivity Growth from International Trade .... 276 Encouraging Trade and Enforcing Trade Agreements ........... 280 Ensuring the Gains from Productivity Growth Are Widely Shared ........................................................ 282 Conclusion .................................................... 284 REFERENCES .................................................... 285 APPENDIXES A. Report to the President on the Activities of the Council of Economic Advisers During 2009 ........................... 305 B. Statistical Tables Relating to Income, Employment, and Production ................................................. 319