Uncertainty and disaster risk management. Modeling the flash flood risk to Vienna and its subway system / Compton K.L. et al. - Laxenburg: International institute for applied systems analysis, 2009. - xii, 84 p.: ill. - (International institute for applied systems analysis; RR-09-002). - Ref.: p.79-84. - ISBN 978-3-7045-0148-6  Место хранения:   022 | Институт экономики и организации промышленного производства | Новосибирск

Оглавление / Contents

Acknowledgments ................................................ xi Abstract ...................................................... xii 1 Introduction and Theoretical Background ...................... 1 1.1 Concepts of Risk ........................................ 3 1.2 Aleatory Uncertainty, Epistemic Uncertainty, and Risk Curves .................................................. 4 1.3 Catastrophe Models as Integrated Assessment Models ...... 7 1.4 Catastrophe Modeling and Uncertainty .................... 9 1.5 Motivation for Catastrophe Modeling .................... 10 1.6 Objectives and Structure of the Report ................. 11 2 Background .................................................. 13 2.1 General Description .................................... 13 2.2 Rainfall Characteristics ............................... 13 2.3 Elements at Risk ....................................... 19 2.4 Flood Protection ....................................... 21 3 Hydraulic Assessment Model Development ...................... 25 3.1 Stochastic Hydraulic Model: Summary Description ........ 25 3.2 Stochastic Hydraulic Model—Parameters .................. 27 4 Damage Assessment Model Development ......................... 35 4.1 Case Studies ........................................... 37 4.2 Analytical/Cost-Estimation Approach .................... 46 4.3 Summary ................................................ 48 5 Abstraction Methodology and Implementation .................. 49 5.1 Model Abstraction: Flood Hazard Analysis ............... 51 5.2 Damage Assessment ...................................... 56 5.3 Financial Parameters ................................... 59 6 Results ..................................................... 66 6.1 Structural Measures .................................... 66 6.2 Financial Measures ..................................... 69 6.3 Mixed Measures ......................................... 72 7 Discussion and Conclusions .................................. 74 References ..................................................... 19