Preface ........................................................ xv
About the editor .............................................. xix
List of contributors .......................................... xxi
1 Introduction ................................................. 1
Mohamed Gad-el-Hak
1.1 What is a large-scale disaster? ......................... 1
1.2 Book contents............................................ 2
References ................................................... 3
2 The art and science of large-scale disasters ................. 5
Mohamed Gad-el-Hak
2.1 Are disasters a modern curse? ........................... 5
2.2 Disaster scope .......................................... 6
2.3 Facets of large-scale disasters ......................... 9
2.4 The science of disaster prediction and control ......... 10
2.4.1 Modeling the disaster's dynamics ................ 12
2.4.2 The fundamental transport equations ............. 13
2.4.3 Closing the equations ........................... 14
2.4.4 Compressibility ................................. 17
2.4.5 Prandtl's breakthrough .......................... 20
2.4.6 Turbulent flows ................................. 21
2.4.7 Numerical solutions ............................. 23
2.4.8 Other complexities .............................. 23
2.4.9 Earthquakes ..................................... 25
2.4.10 The butterfly effect ............................ 26
2.5 Global Earth Observation System of Systems ............. 30
2.6 The art of disaster management ......................... 31
2.7 A bit of sociology ..................................... 32
2.8 Few recent disasters ................................... 34
2.8.1 San Francisco Earthquake ........................ 34
2.8.2 Hyatt Regency walkway collapse .................. 38
2.8.3 Izmit Earthquake ................................ 41
2.8.4 September ....................................... 42
2.8.5 Pacific Tsunami ................................. 43
2.8.6 Hurricane Katrina ............................... 45
2.8.7 Kashmir Earthquake .............................. 49
2.8.8 Hurricane Wilma ................................. 49
2.8.9 Hajj stampede of 2006 ........................... 54
2.8.10 Al-Salam Boccaccio 98 ........................... 56
2.8.11 Bird flu ........................................ 59
2.8.12 Energy crisis ................................... 61
2.9 Concluding remarks ..................................... 64
References .................................................. 64
3 Multiscale modeling for large-scale disaster applications ... 69
Ramana M. Pidaparti
3.1 Introduction ........................................... 69
3.2 Definition and modeling of scales in climate and
weather ................................................ 71
3.2.1 Global climate modeling ......................... 72
3.2.2 Long-term climate simulation .................... 72
3.2.3 Limits to predictability ........................ 72
3.2.4 Global and regional climate models .............. 74
3.3 Definition and modeling of scales during accidental
release of toxic agents in urban environments .......... 77
3.4 Multiscale modeling methods ............................ 81
3.4.1 Key challenges .................................. 81
3.4.2 Application of modeling methods to large-scale
disasters ....................................... 81
3.4.3 Multiscale modeling techniques .................. 82
3.4.4 Molecular dynamics method ....................... 83
3.4.5 Coarse-grained methods .......................... 84
3.4.6 Monte Carlo methods ............................. 84
3.4.7 Cellular automata ............................... 85
3.4.8 Neural networks ................................. 86
3.4.9 Mathematical homogenization ..................... 86
3.4.10 Quasi-continuum method .......................... 87
3.4.11 Heterogeneous multiscale method ................. 87
3.4.12 Continuum methods ............................... 88
3.4.13 Domain decomposition method and parallel
computations .................................... 89
3.4.14 Lattice Вoltzmann method ........................ 90
3.5 Summary and outlook .................................... 91
Acknowledgments ............................................. 91
References .................................................. 91
4 Addressing the root causes of large-scale disasters ......... 94
Ilan Kelman
4.1 Definitions and context ................................ 94
4.1.1 Defining disasters .............................. 94
4.1.2 Do natural disasters exist? ..................... 97
4.2 Root causes of disaster ................................ 98
4.2.1 Case studies .................................... 98
4.2.2 Root cause: vulnerability ...................... 101
4.2.3 Root causes of vulnerability ................... 105
4.3 Tackling root causes of disaster ...................... 108
4.3.1 Principles ..................................... 108
4.3.2 Illustrative case studies ...................... 109
4.4 Conclusions ........................................... 113
References ................................................. 114
5 Issues in disaster relief logistics ........................ 120
Nezih Altay
5.1 Introduction .......................................... 120
5.2 Disaster relief issues identified in literature ....... 122
5.3 Supply chain issues ................................... 123
5.3.1 Funding issues ................................. 126
5.3.2 Needs assessment and procurement ............... 127
5.3.3 Management of information ...................... 129
5.3.4 Coordination issues ............................ 130
5.3.5 Transportation infrastructure and network
design ......................................... 132
5.3.6 Standardization of relief ...................... 132
5.4 Operational issues .................................... 132
5.4.1 Personnel issues ............................... 134
5.4.2 Availability of technology ..................... 136
5.4.3 Local resources ................................ 137
5.5 Ethical issues ........................................ 139
5.5.1 Discrimination ................................. 139
5.5.2 Corruption ..................................... 139
5.6 Political issues ...................................... 140
5.6.1 Military use in disaster relief ................ 140
5.7 Conclusions and future research directions ............ 142
References ............................................ 143
6 Large-scale disasters: perspectives on medical response .... 147
Jehan Elkholy and Mostafa Gad-el-Hak
6.1 Introduction .......................................... 147
6.2 Characteristics of disasters .......................... 148
6.3 Classification of disasters ........................... 148
6.4 Disaster management ................................... 149
6.5 Phases of a disaster .................................. 150
6.5.1 Phase I: disaster preparedness ................. 150
6.5.2 Phase II: medical response ..................... 152
6.5.3 Phase III: recovery ............................ 156
6.6 Role of specialists ................................... 156
6.7 Disaster evaluation ................................... 158
6.8 Failure of disaster response and problems
encountered during disaster management ................ 159
6.9 Conclusions ........................................... 159
References ................................................. 159
7 Augmentation of health care capacity in large-scale
disasters .................................................. 161
Atef M. Radwan
7.1 Introduction .......................................... 161
7.2 Definitions ........................................... 162
7.3 Capacity augmentation of health care facility ......... 163
7.3.1 Variables of health care capacity .............. 163
7.3.2 Triage priorities .............................. 164
7.3.3 Capacities in the medical assistance chain ..... 164
7.3.4 Mass trauma casualty predictor ................. 166
7.3.5 Increasing hospital bed capacity ............... 168
7.3.6 Adaptation of existing capacity ................ 168
7.3.7 Staff calling in and staff augmentation plan ... 169
7.3.8 Modification of the standards of care .......... 170
7.3.9 Triage of patients in mass critical care ....... 171
7.4 Cooperative regional capacity augmentation ............ 171
7.5 Off-site patient care ................................. 173
7.6 Role of government .................................... 173
7.7 Community involvement ................................. 174
7.8 Summary ............................................... 174
References ................................................. 175
8 Energy, climate change, and how to avoid a manmade
disaster ................................................... 177
Ahmed F. Ghoniem
8.1 Introduction .......................................... 177
8.2 Energy consumption—now and then ....................... 179
8.2.1 How much we use ................................ 179
8.2.2 Energy and how we live ......................... 179
8.2.3 How much we will use ........................... 181
8.3 Carbon dioxide ........................................ 183
8.3.1 Greenhouse gases ............................... 184
8.3.2 Energy balance ................................. 184
8.3.3 Climate modeling ............................... 186
8.3.4 Global warming and climate change .............. 189
8.4 CO2 emission mitigation ............................... 194
8.4.1 Implementing multiple solutions ................ 195
8.4.2 The "wedges" ................................... 196
8.5 Low-carbon fossil conversion technologies ............. 198
8.5.1 Chemical energy ................................ 199
8.5.2 CO2 capture .................................... 200
8.5.3 Electrochemical separation ..................... 203
8.5.4 Synfuel production ............................. 203
8.6 Zero-carbon conversion technologies: nuclear and
renewable sources ..................................... 203
8.6.1 Nuclear energy ................................. 204
8.6.2 Hydraulic power ................................ 204
8.6.3 Geothermal energy .............................. 205
8.6.4 Wind energy .................................... 205
8.6.5 Solar energy ................................... 206
8.6.6 Biomass energy ................................. 206
8.6.7 Renewable sources and storage .................. 207
8.7 Transportation ........................................ 208
8.8 Conclusions ........................................... 209
References ................................................. 210
9 Seawater agriculture for energy, wanning, food, land,
and water .................................................. 212
Dennis M. Bushnell
9.1 Introduction .......................................... 212
9.2 Biomass and the Sahara ................................ 213
9.3 Saline/salt water agriculture ......................... 214
9.4 Additional impacts/benefits of saline/seawater
agriculture ........................................... 215
9.5 Summary ............................................... 216
References ................................................. 217
10 Natural and anthropogenic aerosol-related hazards
affecting megacities ....................................... 218
Hesham El-Askary and Menas Kafatos
10.1 Introduction .......................................... 218
10.2 Aerosol properties .................................... 221
10.3 Sand and dust storms .................................. 221
10.3.1 Remote sensing of sand and dust storms ......... 222
10.3.2 Egypt case study ............................... 223
10.3.3 India case study ............................... 230
10.3.4 Modeling of dust storms (dust cycle model) ..... 236
10.4 Air pollution ......................................... 239
10.4.1 Cairo air pollution case study ................. 239
10.4.2 Pollution effects forcing on large-scale
vegetation in India ............................ 242
10.5 Forcing component ..................................... 245
10.5.1 Egypt case study ............................... 248
10.5.2 China case study ............................... 249
10.6 Conclusions ........................................... 252
Acknowledgments ............................................ 254
References ................................................. 254
11 Tsunamis: manifestation and aftermath ...................... 258
Harindra J.S. Fernando, Alexander Braun, Ranjit
Galappatti, Janaka Ruwanpura, and S. Chan Wirasinghe
11.1 Introduction .......................................... 258
11.2 Causes of tsunamis: a general overview ................ 262
11.3 Hydrodynamics of tsunamis ............................. 263
11.4 Ecological impacts of tsunamis—a general overview ..... 265
11.5 The Sumatra Earthquake and Tsunami .................... 267
11.5.1 The Sumatra-Andaman Island Earthquake,
26 December 2004 ............................... 267
11.5.2 The Sumatra Tsunami in Sri Lanka ............... 269
11.5.3 Wave observations and impacts on Sri Lanka ..... 270
11.5.4 The impact on Sri Lanka ........................ 271
11.6 Tsunami warning systems ............................... 282
11.7 Planning for tsunamis ................................. 283
11.7.1 Components of the stochastic scheduling
network ........................................ 284
11.8 Conclusions ........................................... 289
Acknowledgments ............................................ 289
References ................................................. 290
12 Intermediate-scale dynamics of the upper troposphere
and stratosphere ........................................... 293
James J. Riley
12.1 Background ............................................ 293
12.2 More recent interpretation of data .................... 295
12.3 Results from numerical simulations .................... 296
12.4 Implications .......................................... 298
12.5 Summary ............................................... 300
References ................................................. 300
13 Coupled weather-chemistry modeling ......................... 302
Georg A. Grell
13.1 Introduction .......................................... 302
13.2 Fully coupled online modeling ......................... 302
13.2.1 Grid scale transport of species ................ 303
13.2.2 Subgrid scale transport ........................ 303
13.2.3 Dry deposition ................................. 304
13.2.4 Gas-phase chemistry ............................ 304
13.2.5 Parameterization of aerosols ................... 305
13.2.6 Photolysis frequencies ......................... 306
13.3 Online versus offline modeling ........................ 306
13.4 Application in global change research ................. 312
13.5 Concluding remarks .................................... 314
References ................................................. 315
14 Seasonal-to-decadal prediction using climate models:
successes and challenges ................................... 318
Ramalingam Saravanan
14.1 Introduction .......................................... 318
14.2 Potentially predictable phenomena ..................... 321
14.3 Successes in dynamical climate prediction ............. 322
14.4 Challenges that remain ................................ 325
14.5 Summary ............................................... 326
References ................................................. 327
15 Climate change and related disasters ....................... 329
Ashraf S. Zakey, Filippo Giorgi, and Jeremy Pal
15.1 Introduction 329 15.1.1 Definitions of climate
parameters ............................................ 330
15.2 A brief review of regional climate modeling ........... 332
15.3 ICTP regional climate model ........................... 335
15.4 Climate change and extreme events ..................... 337
15.4.1 Defining changes of extremes .................. 337
15.5 Extremes and climate variability ...................... 341
15.6 Regional impact studies ............................... 346
15.6.1 Severe summertime flooding in Europe ........... 346
15.6.2 Warming and heat wave .......................... 347
15.6.3 Wind storms (hurricanes) ....................... 351
15.7 Summary ............................................... 352
Acknowledgments ............................................ 357
References ................................................. 357
16 Impact of climate change on precipitation .................. 363
Roy Rasmussen, Aiguo Dai, and Kevin E. Trenberth
16.1 Introduction .......................................... 363
16.2 Precipitation processes in observations and models .... 364
16.2.1 Evaluation of model simulated changes in
precipitation by examination of the diurnal
cycle .......................................... 366
16.2.2 Observed trends in moisture and extreme
precipitation events ........................... 368
16.3 How should precipitation change as the climate
changes? .............................................. 371
16.4 Questions and issues .................................. 373
16.5 Summary ............................................... 374
Acknowledgments ............................................ 374
References ................................................. 374
17 Weather-related disasters in arid lands .................... 377
Thomas T. Warner
17.1 Introduction ......................................... 377
17.2 Severe weather in arid lands .......................... 378
17.2.1 Dust storms and sand storms .................... 378
17.2.2 Rainstorms, floods, and debris flows ........... 391
17.3 Desertification ....................................... 396
17.3.1 What is desertification? ....................... 396
17.3.2 Extent of desertification ...................... 399
17.3.3 Anthropogenic contributions to
desertification ................................ 401
17.3.4 Natural contributions to desertification ....... 409
17.3.5 Additional selected case studies and examples
of desertification ............................. 409
17.3.6 Physical process feedbacks that may affect
desertification ................................ 414
17.3.7 Satellite-based methods for detecting and
mapping desertification ........................ 417
17.4 Summary ............................................... 418
References ................................................. 420
18 The first hundred years of numerical weather prediction .... 427
Janusz Pudykiewicz and Gilbert Brunet
18.1 Forecasting before equations .......................... 427
18.2 The birth of theoretical meteorology .................. 429
18.3 Initial attempts of scientifically based weather
prediction ............................................ 432
18.4 Bergen school of meteorology .......................... 433
18.5 First numerical integration of the primitive
meteorological equations .............................. 434
18.6 Weather forecasting after Richardson .................. 436
18.7 Richardson's experiment revisited and the birth of
forecasting based on primitive equations .............. 439
18.8 Expansion of the scope of traditional meteorological
prediction ............................................ 439
18.9 Development of the modern atmospheric prediction
systems ............................................... 440
18.10 From weather prediction to environmental
engineering and climate control ...................... 441
18.11 Conclusions .......................................... 444
References ................................................. 444
19 Fundamental issues in numerical weather prediction ......... 447
Jimy Dudhia
19.1 Introduction .......................................... 447
19.2 Disaster-related weather .............................. 447
19.3 Disaster prediction strategies ........................ 448
19.3.1 Medium-range prediction (5-10 days) ............ 448
19.3.2 Short-range prediction (3-5 days) .............. 448
19.3.3 Day-to-day prediction (1-3 days) ............... 449
19.3.4 Very short-range prediction (<1 day) ........... 449
19.4 Fundamental issues: atmospheric predictability ........ 449
19.5 The model ............................................. 450
19.5.1 Model physics .................................. 450
19.5.2 Model dynamics ................................. 451
19.5.3 Model numerics ................................. 451
19.6 Model data ............................................ 451
19.7 Conclusions ........................................... 452
References ................................................. 452
20 Space measurements for disaster response:
the International Charter .................................. 453
Ahmed Mahmood and Mohammed Shokr
20.1 Introduction .......................................... 453
20.2 Space remote sensing and disaster management .......... 454
20.3 General principles of remote sensing .................. 459
20.3.1 Optical, thermal, and microwave imaging ........ 461
20.3.2 Image processing, information contents, and
interpretation ................................. 470
20.3.3 Geophysical parameter retrieval and value
adding ......................................... 475
20.3.4 Image classification and change detection ...... 477
20.4 Space-based initiatives for disaster management ....... 479
20.5 About the charter ..................................... 482
20.5.1 History and operations ......................... 484
20.5.2 A constellation of sensors and satellites ...... 491
20.5.3 Mission summaries .............................. 500
20.5.4 Applicable policies ............................ 504
20.5.5 Performance update ............................. 511
20.6 Disaster coverage ..................................... 515
20.6.1 Activation criteria ............................ 515
20.6.2 Data acquisition planning ...................... 516
20.6.3 Reporting and user feedback .................... 518
20.7 Case histories ........................................ 519
20.7.1 Nyiragongo vole anic eruption .................. 519
20.7.2 Southern Manitoba flood ........................ 521
20.7.3 Galicia oil spill .............................. 522
20.7.4 South Asian Tsunami ............................ 525
20.7.5 French forest fires ............................ 527
20.7.6 Hurricane Katrina .............................. 528
20.7.7 Kashmir Earthquake ............................. 531
20.7.8 Philippines landslide .......................... 532
20.7.9 Central Europe floods .......................... 534
20.8 Concluding remarks .................................... 539
Acknowledgments ............................................ 539
References ................................................. 540
21 Weather satellite measurements: their use for prediction ... 542
William L. Smith
21.1 Introduction .......................................... 542
21.2 Weather satellite measurements ........................ 542
21.3 Global Earth Observation System of Systems ............ 544
21.4 The current and planned space component ............... 545
21.5 Vegetation index ...................................... 547
21.6 Flash floods .......................................... 549
21.7 Severe thunderstorms and hurricanes ................... 551
21.8 Improvements in the satellite observing system ........ 556
21.9 Summary ............................................... 565
Acknowledgments ............................................ 566
References ................................................. 566
Epilogue ...................................................... 569
Index ......................................................... 573
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