Foreword ..................................................... xiii
Preface ........................................................ xv
Contributors .................................................. xix
Introduction ................................................ xxiii
Part I. Possible Causes of Climate Change
1. The Role of Atmospheric Gases in Global Warming
R.P. Tuckett
1. Introduction .............................................. 3
2. Origin of the Greenhouse Effect: 'Primary' and
'Secondary' Effects ....................................... 4
3. The Physical Chemistry Properties of Greenhouse Gases ..... 9
4. The Lifetime of a Greenhouse Gas in the Earth's
Atmosphere ............................................... 15
5. General Comments on Long-Lived Greenhouse Gases .......... 17
6. Conclusion ............................................... 18
References .................................................. 19
2. The Role of Widespread Surface Solar Radiation Trends
in Climate Change: Dimming and Brightening
S. Cohen
1. Introduction ............................................. 22
2. Solar Radiation and its Measurement ...................... 22
3. Trends in Surface Solar Radiation or Global Dimming
and Brightening .......................................... 26
4. The Causes of Dimming and Brightening .................... 32
5. The Influence of Solar Radiation Changes (Dimming and
Brightening) on Climate .................................. 33
6. Conclusions .............................................. 38
References .................................................. 38
3. The Role of Space Weather and Cosmic Ray Effects
in Climate Change
L.I. Dorman
1. Introduction ............................................. 44
2. Solar Activity, Cosmic Rays and Climate Change ........... 45
3. The Influence on the Earth's Climate of the Solar
System Moving Around the Galactic Centre and Crossing
Galaxy Arms .............................................. 65
4. The Influence of Molecular-Dust Galactic Clouds on
the Earth's Climate ...................................... 65
5. The Influence of Interplanetary Dust Sources on the
Earth's Climate .......................................... 67
6. Space Factors and Global Warming ......................... 68
7. The Influence of Asteroids on the Earth's Climate ........ 70
8. The Influence of Nearby Supernova on the Earth's
Climate .................................................. 70
9. Discussion and Conclusions ............................... 71
References .................................................. 74
4. The Role of Volcanic Activity in Climate and Global
Change
G. Stenchikov
1. Introduction ............................................. 77
2. Aerosol Loading, Spatial Distribution and Radiative
Effect ................................................... 79
3. Volcanoes and Climate .................................... 82
4. Summary .................................................. 98
References .................................................. 99
5. The Role of Variations of the Earth's Orbital
Characteristics in Climate Change
L.J. Lourens and E. Tuenter
1. Introduction ............................................ 103
2. Astronomical Parameters ................................. 104
3. Orbital-Induced Climate Change .......................... 112
4. Conclusion .............................................. 120
References ................................................. 121
Part II. A Geological History of Climate Change
6. A Geological History of Climate Change
J. Zalasiewicz and M. Williams
1. Introduction ............................................ 127
2. Climate Models .......................................... 128
3. Long-Term Climate Trends ................................ 129
4. Early Climate History ................................... 131
5. Phanerozoic Glaciations ................................. 132
6. The Mesozoic-Early Cenozoic Greenhouse .................. 133
7. Development of the Quaternary Icehouse .................. 134
8. Astronomical Modulation of Climate ...................... 135
9. Milankovitch Cyclicity in Quaternary (Pleistocene)
Climate History ......................................... 136
10.Quaternary Sub-Milankovitch Cyclicity ................... 137
11.The Holocene ............................................ 138
12.Climate of the Anthropocene ............................. 138
13.Conclusions ............................................. 139
References ................................................. 139
Part III. Indicators of Climate and Global Change
7. Changes in the Atmospheric Circulation as Indicator
of Climate Change
T. Reichler
1. Introduction ............................................ 145
2. The General Circulation of the Atmosphere ............... 147
3. The Poleward Expansion of the Tropical Circulation ...... 149
4. The Decreasing Intensity of the Tropical Circulation .... 155
5. Emerging Mechanisms ..................................... 155
6. Connection to Extratropical Circulation Change .......... 159
7. Outstanding Problems and Conclusions .................... 160
References ................................................. 162
8. Weather Pattern Changes in the Tropics and Mid-
Latitudes as an Indicator of Global Changes
R. M. Trigo and L. Gimeno
1. Introduction ............................................ 165
2. Observed Changes in Extra-Tropical Patterns ............. 166
3. Changes in Tropical Patterns ............................ 170
4. Conclusion .............................................. 178
References ................................................. 179
9. Bird Ecology as an Indicator of Climate and Global Change
W. Fiedler
1. Introduction ............................................ 181
2. Indicators of Change .................................... 182
3. Conclusion .............................................. 193
References ................................................. 193
10.Mammal Ecology as an Indicator of Climate Change
M.M. Humphries
1. Introduction: A Primer on Mammal Thermoregulation
and Climate Impacts ..................................... 197
2. Demonstrated Impacts of Climate Change on Mammals ....... 199
3. Linking Time and Space in Mammal Climate Responses ...... 210
References ................................................. 211
11.Climate Change and Temporal and Spatial Mismatches
in Insect Communities
S.L Pelini, K.M. Prior, D.J. Parker, J.D.K. Dzurisin,
R.L. Lindroth and J.J. Hellmann
1. Introduction ............................................ 215
2. Direct Effects of Climate Change on Insects ............. 217
3. Host Plant-Mediated Effects on Insects .................. 219
4. Predator-Mediated Effects on Insect Populations ......... 222
5. Climate Change and Insect Pests ......................... 225
6. Conclusion .............................................. 226
References ................................................. 227
12.Sea Life (Pelagic and Planktonic Ecosystems) as an
Indicator of Climate and Global Change
M. Edwards
1. Pelagic and Planktonic Ecosystems ....................... 233
2. Observed Impacts on Pelagic and Planktonic Ecosystems ... 237
3. Conclusion and Summary of Key Indicators ................ 246
References ................................................. 248
13.Changes in Coral Reef Ecosystems as an Indicator
of Climate and Global Change
M.J. Attrill
1. Introduction ............................................ 253
2. Tropical Coral Reef Ecosystems .......................... 254
3. The Associated Fauna of Coral Reefs ..................... 258
4. Conclusion .............................................. 260
References ................................................. 260
14.Changes in Marine Biodiversity as an Indicator
of Climate Change
B. Worm and H.K. Lotze
1. Introduction ............................................ 263
2. Climate Change and the Oceans ........................... 264
3. Effects of Climate Change on Biodiversity ............... 265
4. Cumulative Impacts and Indirect Effects of Climate
Change .................................................. 272
5. Biodiversity as Insurance against Climate Change
Impacts ................................................. 274
6. Conclusions ............................................. 275
References ................................................. 276
15.Intertidal Indicators of Climate and Global Change
N. Mieszkowska
1. Introduction ............................................ 281
2. Climate Change and Biogeography ......................... 283
3. Mechanisms .............................................. 289
4. Additional Impacts of Global Change ..................... 291
5. Conclusions ............................................. 292
References ................................................. 292
16.Plant Ecology as an Indicator of Climate and Global
Change
M.D. Morecroft and S.A. Keith
1. Introduction ............................................ 297
2. Changes in Phenology .................................... 299
3. Changes in Distribution ................................. 300
4. Community Composition ................................... 301
5. Plant Growth ............................................ 302
6. Conclusions ............................................. 303
References ................................................. 304
17.The Impact of Climate and Global Change on Crop
Production
C.R. Dixon
1. Introduction ............................................ 307
2. Impact on Plant Growth and Reproduction ................. 308
3. Scale of the Problems ................................... 313
4. Climate Change Models ................................... 314
5. Winners and Losers ...................................... 315
6. Adaptation .............................................. 320
References ................................................. 322
18.Rising Sea Levels as an Indicator of Global Change
R. Gehrels
1. Introduction ............................................ 325
2. Is Sea Level Rising? .................................... 325
3. Why is Sea Level Rising? ................................ 328
4. Are Contemporary Rates of Sea-level Rise Unusual? ....... 333
5. Conclusion .............................................. 334
References ................................................. 334
19.Sea Temperature Change as an Indicator of Global
Change
M.J. Attrill
1. Introduction: Role of Ocean, Mechanisms and Correction
of Bias ................................................. 337
2. Long-Term Trends in Sea Temperature: The Historical
Context ................................................. 341
3. Global and Regional Patterns of Sea Temperature over
the Last 100-1 50 Years ................................. 343
4. Conclusion: Anthropogenic Influence ..................... 345
References ................................................. 346
20.Ocean Current Changes as an Indicator of Global Change
T. Kanzow and M. Visbeck
1. Introduction ............................................ 349
2. The Variable Ocean ...................................... 350
3. Oceanographers' Tools ................................... 351
4. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ......... 353
5. The AMOC's Role in Heat Transport, Oceanic Uptake
of Carbon and Ventilation of the Deep Ocean ............. 357
6. Can we Detect Changes in the AMOC? Is the AMOC
Changing Already? ....................................... 361
7. Conclusion .............................................. 362
References ................................................. 364
21.Ocean Acidification as an Indicator for Climate Change
C. Turley and H.S. Find lay
1. Introduction ............................................ 367
2. Evidence from Observations .............................. 370
3. Model Predictions of Future Change ...................... 374
4. Impacts ................................................. 374
5. Biogeochemical Cycling and Feedback to Climate .......... 381
6. Adaptation, Recovery and Mitigation ..................... 383
7. Conclusion .............................................. 385
References ................................................. 387
22.Ice Sheets: Indicators and Instruments of Climate Change
D.G. Vaughan
1. Introduction ............................................ 391
2. Sea-level and Ice ....................................... 391
3. How Ice Sheets Work ..................................... 394
4. Summary ................................................. 398
References ................................................. 399
23.Lichens as an Indicator of Climate and Global Change
A. Aptroot
1. Introduction ............................................ 401
2. Predicted Effects ....................................... 402
3. Observed Effects ........................................ 402
4. Uncertain Effects ....................................... 403
5. Habitats with Vulnerable Lichens ........................ 405
6. Conclusion .............................................. 407
References ................................................. 408
24.Coastline Degradation as an Indicator of Global Change
R.J. Nicholls, С. Woodroffe and V. Burkett
1. Introduction ............................................ 409
2. Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Systems ...................... 411
3. Climate Change and Global/Relative Sea-Level Rise ....... 412
4. Increasing Human Utilisation of the Coastal Zone ........ 413
5. Climate Change, Sea-Level Rise and Resulting Impacts .... 415
6. Recent Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change ..... 416
7. Global Warming and Coasts at Latitudinal Extremes ....... 418
8. The Challenge to Understand Contemporary Impacts ........ 420
9. Concluding Remarks ...................................... 421
References ................................................. 422
25.Plant Pathogens as Indicators of Climate Change
K.A. Garrett, M. Nita, E.D. De Wolf, L. Gomez
and A. H. Sparks
1. Introduction ............................................ 425
2. Climate Variables and Plant Disease ..................... 426
3. Evidence that Simulated Climate Change Affects Plant
Disease in Experiments .................................. 430
4. Evidence that Plant Disease Patterns have Changed
due to Climate Change ................................... 431
References .................................................... 436
Index ......................................................... 439
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