1. Introduction ................................................. 9
2. Literature review ........................................... 11
3. Aim of the research ......................................... 22
4. Scope and methods ........................................... 24
4.1. Introduction ........................................... 24
4.2. Conditions of fire occurrence .......................... 24
4.3. Development of the model for forecasting the
litter moisture content depending on weather
conditions ............................................. 25
4.4. Development of the method of assessing the risk
of forest fire outbreak and spread ..................... 26
4.5. The development of procedures for forest and fire
services concerning prevention and operational
actions depending on forest fire hazard ................ 27
4.6. Development of a software for the method of
assessing forest fire risk and spread .................. 27
4.7. Economic analysis of the use of the developed
method of organizing forest fire prevention actions .... 28
5. Site description ............................................ 29
6. Results ..................................................... 32
6.1. Conditions of fire occurrence .......................... 32
6.1.1. Air temperature ................................. 32
6.1.2. Air relative humidity ........................... 33
6.1.3. Cloudiness ...................................... 34
6.1.4. Atmospheric precipitation ....................... 34
6.1.5. Litter moisture ................................. 37
6.1.6. Meteorological characteristics of days with
fires against the characteristics of the
flammability season ............................. 41
6.1.7. Litter moisture and forest type ................. 46
6.2. Regression models of litter moisture depending on
weather conditions ..................................... 47
6.2.1. Litter moisture prediction model in the
afternoon of the same day ....................... 47
6.2.2. Litter moisture prediction model in the
morning of the next day ......................... 59
6.3. The method of assessing the risk of forest fire
occurrence and spread .................................. 71
6.4. Software for the assessment of forest fire risk
and fire spread model .................................. 80
6.5. Evaluation of the developed forest fire risk
assessment method ...................................... 90
6.6. Economic analysis of the use of the forest fire
risk assessment method ................................. 94
6.6.1. Comparative analysis of the costs of fire
protection operations using different methods
of forecasting fire hazard on the example
of the Regional Directorate of the State
Forests in Zielona Gora ......................... 94
6.6.2. Analysis of the costs of operation of
the Municipal Headquarters of the State
Fire Service related to the use of the
risk assessment method ......................... 103
7. Discussion and summary ..................................... 106
8. Conclusions ................................................ 114
9. List of symbols (in English) ............................... 117
10.Literature ................................................. 119
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