List of Figures ............................................... vii
List of Tables ................................................. xi
Chapter 1 Introduction: Planning Research Methods ............... 1
1.1 Planning ................................................. 1
1.2 Planning Analysis ........................................ 2
1.3 The Illustrative Study Area—Boone County,
Kentucky, USA ............................................ 3
1.4 Structure of the Book .................................... 6
References .................................................. 10
Chapter 2 Data and Data Presentation ........................... 11
2.1 Data .................................................... 12
2.1.1 Level of Measurement .............................. 14
2.1.2 Data Aggregation .................................. 18
2.2 Data Analysis ........................................... 24
2.2.1 Descriptive Statistics ............................ 24
2.2.2 Analysis of Relationships ......................... 30
2.2.3 Regression Analysis ............................... 33
2.2.4 Time Dimension .................................... 37
2.2.5 Spatial Analysis .................................. 39
2.3 Presentation ........................................ 41
2.3.1 Tabular Presentation .............................. 41
2.3.2 Graphic Presentation .............................. 43
2.3.3 Map Presentation .................................. 47
2.4 Projections, Forecasts, or Estimates .................... 49
References .............................................. 51
Chapter 3 Demographic Analysis ................................. 53
3.1 The Need for Demographic Analysis ....................... 53
3.1.1 Typology of Projection Methods .................... 55
3.2 Demographic Analysis—Fundamental Concepts ............... 58
3.3 Components of Change—Demographic Reasons for
Population Change ....................................... 65
3.3.1 Fertility ......................................... 66
3.3.2 Mortality ......................................... 71
3.3.3 Migration ......................................... 77
3.4 Trend Extrapolation Methods ............................. 81
3.4.1 Share of Growth Method ............................ 83
3.4.2 Shift-Share Method ................................ 85
3.4.3 Linear Population Model ........................... 86
3.4.4 Geometric Population Model ........................ 91
3.4.5 Parabolic Population Model ........................ 96
3.4.6 Logistic Population Model ........................ 100
3.5 Cohort-Component Method ................................ 110
3.5.1 The Mortality Component .......................... 115
3.5.2 The Net Migration Component ...................... 116
3.5.3 The Fertility Component .......................... 119
3.5.4 Bringing All Components Together ................. 122
3.6 Concluding Remarks ..................................... 125
Review Questions ....................................... 128
Exercises .............................................. 129
References ............................................. 131
Chapter 4 Understanding Your Regional Economy-The
Economic Base Theory ................................ 134
4.1 Introduction to Economic Models ........................ 134
4.2 The Economic Base Theory ............................... 135
4.3 Understanding Your Regional Economy .................... 137
4.4 Assessing the State of a Regional Economy .............. 147
4.4.1 Compiling a Regional Economic Profile ............ 147
4.4.2 Preliminary Consideration ........................ 153
4.5 Economic Base Analysis Techniques ...................... 165
4.5.1 The Survey Method ................................ 165
4.5.2 The Assumption Method ............................ 166
4.5.3 The Location Quotient Method ..................... 168
4.5.4 Minimum Requirement Method ....................... 188
4.6 Evaluating Regional Economies Using the
Economic Base Multiplier and Shift-Share
Analysis ............................................... 195
4.6.1 The Economic Base Multiplier ..................... 196
4.6.2 Shift-Share Analysis ............................. 202
Review Questions ........................................... 213
Exercises .................................................. 214
References ................................................. 216
Chapter 5 Input-Output Analysis for Planning
Purposes ............................................ 218
5.1 Introduction to Input-Output Analysis .................. 218
5.2 The Input-Output Table ................................. 223
5.3 Deriving Input-Output Multipliers-The
Economic Model ......................................... 227
5.3.1 The Open Model-Calculating Type I
Output Multipliers ............................... 229
5.3.2 The Closed Model-Calculating Type II
Output Multipliers ............................... 242
5.3.3 Household Income Multipliers ..................... 246
5.3.4 More on Input-Output Multipliers ................. 250
5.4 Assumptions and Extensions of Input-Output
Analysis ............................................... 258
Review Questions ........................................... 269
Exercises .................................................. 270
References ................................................. 271
Chapter 6 Land Use Analysis ................................... 273
6.1 Land Use and Human Activities .......................... 275
6.2 Land Classification .................................... 279
6.3 Land Database and Land Mapping ......................... 289
6.3.1 Land Database .................................... 289
6.3.2 Land Data Sources ................................ 295
6.3.3 Land Mapping ..................................... 295
6.4 Land Suitability Analysis .............................. 297
6.4.1 The Eight-Step Land Suitability
Analysis ......................................... 298
6.5 GIS-Based Land Suitability Analysis .................... 306
6.5.1 Data Preparation ................................. 307
6.5.2 Calculate Composite Scores ....................... 314
6.5.3 Delineation of Developable Land .................. 317
6.6 Impact Analysis ........................................ 319
Review Questions ........................................... 323
Exercises .................................................. 323
References ................................................. 324
Chapter 7 Transportation Analysis ............................. 327
7.1 Basic Concepts in Transportation Analysis .............. 329
7.2 Overview of Transportation Analysis .................... 333
7.3 Street Classification .................................. 334
7.3.1 Level of Service ................................. 337
7.4 Travel Demand Modeling ................................. 339
7.4.1 Trip Generation .................................. 341
7.4.2 Trip Distribution ................................ 355
7.4.3 Mode Choice ...................................... 362
7.4.4 Trip Assignment .................................. 370
7.5 Critique and Limitations ............................... 374
Review Questions ........................................... 377
Exercises .................................................. 378
References ................................................. 380
Chapter 8 Synopsis-An Integrated Analysis ..................... 382
8.1 Case Study One: 20-Year Population
Projection ............................................. 383
8.2 Case Study Two: Household Allocation ................... 393
8.3 Case Study Three: Economic Impact Analysis ............. 403
8.3.1 Building the Input-Output Table Using
IMPLAN Professional 2.0 .......................... 406
8.3.2 Assessing Total Changes in Industry
Output Using Type II Output
Multipliers ...................................... 412
8.3.3 Assessing Changes in Household Income ............ 415
8.3.4 Assessing Total Employment Changes ............... 416
8.4 Case Study Four: Estimation of Trip
Production and Trip Attraction ......................... 418
8.4.1 Trip Generation by Zone .......................... 418
8.4.2 Trip Distribution by Zone ........................ 423
8.5 Concluding Remarks ..................................... 428
References ................................................. 429
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