Preface ...................................................... viii
Chapter 1. Background and history of the problem ................ 1
1.1. The climate of the Holocene .............................. 1
1.2. Principal sources of data on the Earth's climate
system .................................................. 10
1.2.1 Background ........................................ 10
1.2.2 Short-term climate changes ........................ 15
1.2.3 Medium- and long-term climate changes ............. 19
1.3. Borehole climatology .................................... 27
Chapter 2. Climate change and subsurface temperature ........... 37
2.1. Methods and technique to carry out borehole
temperature measurements ............................... 39
2.2. Subsurface temperature field and its response to
changing surface conditions (climate) ................... 41
2.3. Geothermal method of climate reconstruction:
principles, resolution, limitations (forward and
inverse techniques, sources of perturbation) ............ 49
2.3.1 Background and history ............................ 49
2.3.2 Theory of 1-D heat conduction ..................... 50
2.3.3 Ramp/step method .................................. 52
2.3.4 Singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithm ...... 53
2.3.5 Least squares inversion in functional space
(FSI) ............................................. 60
2.3.6 General comparison of the methods ................. 62
2.4. Comparison of ground surface temperature (GST)
reconstruction methods .................................. 64
2.4.1 Effects of smoothing constraints in different
methods and the noise in the data: synthetic
examples .......................................... 65
2.4.2 Effect of systematic errors in thermal
conductivity ...................................... 72
2.4.3 Using additional information: field example ....... 77
2.4.4 Recent testing of borehole inversion methods
in simulated climates ............................. 82
2.4.5 Interpreting ensembles of borehole
temperature logs .................................. 86
2.5. Ground-air temperature coupling: pre-observational
mean temperature (POM) .................................. 89
2.6. Ground-air temperature coupling: effect of various
environmental changes ................................... 96
2.6.1 Background ........................................ 96
2.6.2 Snow cover and ground freezing .................... 98
2.6.3 Effect of precipitation .......................... 106
2.6.4 Effect of surface vegetation ..................... 116
2.6.5 Long-term soil-air temperature coupling .......... 123
2.6.6 Other possible terrain effects ................... 128
2.7. Non-conductive heat transfer effect on the GST
reconstruction (groundwater flow effects) .............. 133
2.8. Climate change and permafrost .......................... 149
2.9. Climate from ice boreholes ............................. 165
Chapter 3. Ground temperature histories: evidence of
changing climate ................................... 175
3.1. Timescales of the reconstructed GST histories
(from Ice Age to the Present) .......................... 175
3.1.1 GST changes in the last two millennia
(spatial and temporal patterns) .................. 177
3.1.2 Recent warming ................................... 196
3.2. Temperature trends over past five centuries
reconstructed from borehole temperature data
(spatial and temporal patterns) ........................ 208
3.3. Correlation between GST climate reconstruction,
meteorological data, and proxies ....................... 219
3.4. Is there any anthropogenic component in the
present-day global warming? Evidence from the
underground ............................................ 226
3.4.1 Background ....................................... 227
3.4.2 Greenhouse gases and climate change .............. 228
3.4.3 Was the twentieth century climate unusual?
Evidence from the underground .................... 232
3.4.4 The elements of optimal detection of the
climate change and attribution of the causes ..... 235
3.4.5 Granger causality to investigate the human
influence on climate ............................. 245
3.5. Deep continental drilling and signature of
remote climate changes ................................. 250
3.5.1 Late Quaternary GST changes inferred from
the deep hole measurements ....................... 250
3.5.2 Climate signature in superdeep boreholes ......... 260
Chapter 4. Subsurface temperature monitoring: present-day
temperature change and its variability ............. 267
4.1. Geothermal observatories and subsurface
temperature monitoring ................................. 267
4.2. Detection of the present-day warming by
temperature monitoring in shallow boreholes ............ 269
4.2.1 Emigrant pass observatory, Utah .................. 279
4.2.2 The Sornfelli borehole ........................... 280
4.2.3 Kamchatka ........................................ 281
4.2.4 Livingston Island, Antarctic ..................... 282
4.3. Recent climate variability ............................. 283
4.3.1 Climate change and climate variability ........... 283
4.3.2 Trends in the recent climate variability ......... 287
4.3.3 Structure of the stochastic component of the
short-term climate variability ................... 295
Conclusions and perspectives of future progress ............... 305
References .................................................... 307
Subject Index ................................................. 331
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