INTRODUCTION .................................................... 1
1 CHEMISTRY-CLIMATE MODELLING OF THE STRATOSPHERE ............... 3
1.1 Motivation ................................................ 3
1.2 Benchmark for Process-oriented Model Evaluation [EY1] ..... 4
1.3 Definition of a common set of model simulations and
forcings [EY2; EY3] ....................................... 7
1.4 Assessment of chemistry-climate model simulations of
the recent past [EY2] ..................................... 7
1.4.1 Stratospheric Temperatures .......................... 9
1.4.2 Stratospheric Transport Characteristics ............ 10
1.4.3 Hydrogen Chloride (HCl) and Inorganic Chlorine
(Cly) .............................................. 11
1.4.4 Ozone .............................................. 13
1.5 Multi-model projections of stratospheric ozone in
the 21st century [EY3] ................................... 13
1.5.5 Mid-latitudes and Global ........................... 15
1.5.6 Spring-time Polar Ozone ............................ 15
1.6 Summary .................................................. 17
1.7 Conclusions and Outlook .................................. 17
2 IMPACT OF SHIPPING ON ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND CLIMATE .... 21
2.1 Motivation ............................................... 21
2.2 Emissions [EY4; EY5] ..................................... 24
2.2.1 Present-day Fuel Consumption and Emissions ......... 24
2.2.2 Historical Fuel Consumption and Emissions .......... 26
2.2.3 Future Emission Scenarios .......................... 27
2.3 Impact on Atmospheric Composition [EY6; EY7; EY8; EY9] ... 28
2.3.1 Near-Field Processes ............................... 28
2.3.2 Large-Scale Effects on Atmospheric Composition ..... 30
2.4 Impact on Human Health [EY10] ............................ 37
2.5 Radiative Forcing [EY7; EY9; EY11; EY12] ................. 38
2.5.1 Radiative Forcing due to Changes in Cloud
Properties ......................................... 38
2.5.2 Net Radiative Forcing from Shipping ................ 43
2.6 Summary .................................................. 45
2.7 Conclusions and Outlook .................................. 47
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................... 49
REFERENCES ..................................................... 50
Integrated Author's References ............................... 50
Selected Author's References ................................. 51
External References .......................................... 51
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