Preface ...................................................... xiii
List of figures .............................................. xvii
List of tables .............................................. xxvii
List of abbreviations and acronyms ........................... xxix
About the authors .......................................... xxxiii
List of contributors ......................................... xxxv
1. Introduction (Volker Bothmer and Ioannis Daglis) ............ 1
2. Space weather forecasting historically viewed through the
lens of meteorology (George Siscoe) ......................... 5
2.1. Sibling sciences 5
2.2. Steps in the advance of environmental forecasting:
the meteorological experience ......................... 6
2.3. Relevant analogies between terrestrial weather and
space weather ........................................ 10
2.4. Steps in the advance of space weather forecasting .... 11
2.4.1. Stage 1: social impacts ...................... 11
2.4.2. Stage 2: visual observations ................. 13
2.4.3. Stages 3 and 4: instrument observations
and synoptic images ......................... 14
2.4.4. Stages 5 and 6: real-time predictions based
on advection of static structures ............ 17
2.4.5. Stage 7: subjective analysis ................. 19
2.4.6. Stage 8: objective space weather
forecasting .................................. 21
2.4.7. Stage 9: numerical space weather
prediction ................................... 23
2.4.8. Stage 10: storm tracking ..................... 24
2.4.9. Critical supplementary step: university
teaching of space weather forecating ......... 25
2.5. Important comparative topics not covered ............. 25
2.6. Summary .............................................. 26
2.7. Acknowledgements ..................................... 26
2.8. References ........................................... 26
3. The Sun as the prime source of space weather
(Volker Bothmer and Andrei Zhukov) ......................... 31
3.1. Introduction - the Sun's energy output and
variability .......................................... 31
3.2. Space weather effects of the quasi steady-state
corona ............................................... 37
3.2.1. Slow and fast solar wind streams and their
source regions ............................... 37
3.2.2. Solar wind impact on the Earth's
magnetosphere ................................ 40
3.2.3. Space storms due to co-rotating
interaction regions and high-speed flows ..... 42
3.3. Space weather effects of the dynamic corona .......... 48
3.3.1. The ever changing photospheric magnetic
field ........................................ 48
3.3.2. The explosive corona - coronal mass
ejections and flares ......................... 50
3.3.3. Interplanetary consequences of coronal
mass ejections - shocks and ICMEs ............ 55
3.3.4. Examples of space storms driven by
CMEs/ICMEs ................................... 58
3.3.5. Major SEP events, CME-driven shocks and
radio-wave signatures ........................ 65
3.4. Space storms over the solar cycle - times of
occurrence and importance of solar, heliospheric
and magnetospheric' modulations ...................... 71
3.5. Solar observations and modeling for space weather
forecasts ............................................ 80
3.5.1. Modeling the quasi steady-state corona and
solar wind ................................... 81
3.5.2. Forecasting coronal mass ejections and
solar energetic particle events .............. 83
3.6. Acknowledgements ..................................... 90
3.7. References ........................................... 92
4. The coupling of the solar wind to the Earth's
magnetosphere (Christopher T. Russell) .................... 103
4.1. Introduction ........................................ 103
4.2. The bow shock and the magnetosheath ................. 106
4.3. The size and shape of the magnetosphere ............. 112
4.4. Reconnection ........................................ 114
4.5. Dayside reconnection ................................ 117
4.6. Substorms ........................................... 119
4.7. Storms .............................................. 124
4.8. Field-aligned currents .............................. 126
4.9. Summary ............................................. 129
4.10. Acknowledgements .................................... 130
4.11. References .......................................... 130
5. Major radiation environments in the heliosphere and
their implications for interplanetary travel
(Norma B. Crosby) ......................................... 131
5.1. Introduction ........................................ 131
5.1.1. The heliosphere ............................. 132
5.1.2. Cosmic rays ................................. 132
5.1.3. Other particle populations .................. 134
5.1.4. Summary ..................................... 135
5.2. Galactic cosmic rays ................................ 136
5.2.1. The energy spectrum ......................... 137
5.2.2. Origin and acceleration mechanisms .......... 138
5.2.3. Summary ..................................... 141
5.3. Anomalous cosmic rays ............................... 141
5.4. Solar energetic particles ........................... 143
5.4.1. Impulsive and gradual events ................ 143
5.4.2. Solar proton events (empirical models and
forecasting) ................................ 145
5.5. Energetic storm particles ........................... 147
5.6. Corotating interaction regions ...................... 149
5.7. Planetary bow shocks ................................ 150
5.8. Geomagnetically trapped particles ................... 153
5.8.1. Earth's radiation belts ..................... 154
5.8.2. Radiation belts of other planets ............ 158
5.9. Interplanetary space weather and the implications ... 159
5.9.1. Case study: mission to Mars scenario ........ 161
5.10. Summary ............................................. 164
5.11. Acknowledgements .................................... 165
5.12. References .......................................... 165
6. Radiation belts and ring current (Daniel N. Baker and
Ioannis A. Daglis) ........................................ 173
6.1. Introduction and historical context ................. 173
6.2. Radiation belt sources .............................. 175
6.3. Radiation belt structure and dynamics ............... 179
6.4. Ring current structure, sources and formation ....... 184
6.5. Ring current dynamics ............................... 188
6.6. Synopsis ............................................ 195
6.7. References .......................................... 196
7. Ionospheric response (Kristian Schlegel) .................. 203
7.1. Introduction ........................................ 203
7.2. Particle precipitation .............................. 204
7.3. Conductivities and currents ......................... 206
7.4. Magnetic signatures on the ground and geomagnetic
indices ............................................. 213
7.5. Aurorae ............................................. 214
7.6. Consequences of electron density enhancements and
fluctuations ........................................ 218
7.7. Solar-flare and cosmic-ray related effects .......... 220
7.8. References .......................................... 223
8. Solar effects in the middle and lower stratosphere and
probable associations with the troposphere (Karin
Labitzke and Harry van Loon) .............................. 225
8.1. Introduction ........................................ 225
8.2. Data and methods .................................... 227
8.3. Variability in the stratosphere ..................... 229
8.4. Solar influences on the stratosphere and
troposphere ......................................... 231
8.4.1. The stratosphere during the northern
winter ...................................... 231
8.4.2. The stratosphere during the northern
summer ...................................... 233
8.4.3. The troposphere ............................. 237
8.5. Models and mechanisms ............................... 240
8.6. Acknowledgements .................................... 241
8.7. References .......................................... 242
9. Space weather effects on communications (Louis J.
Lanzerotti) ............................................... 247
9.1. Introduction ........................................ 247
9.2. Early effects on wire-line telegraph
communications ...................................... 248
9.3. Early effects on wireless communications ............ 251
9.4. The beginning of the space era ...................... 253
9.5. Solar-terrestrial environmental effects on
communications technologies ......................... 255
9.5.1. Ionosphere and wireless ..................... 256
9.5.2. Ionosphere and Earth currents ............... 257
9.5.3. Solar radio emissions ....................... 258
9.5.4. Space radiation effects ..................... 260
9.5.5. Magnetic field variations ................... 263
9.5.6. Micrometeoroids and space debris ............ 263
9.5.7. Atmosphere: low-altitude spacecraft drag .... 263
9.5.8. Atmosphere: water vapour .................... 264
9.6. Summary ............................................. 264
9.7. Acknowledgements .................................... 265
9.8. References .......................................... 265
10. Space weather effects on power grids (Risto Pirjola) ...... 269
10.1. Introduction ........................................ 269
10.2. GIC problems in power systems ....................... 271
10.3. Modelling of GIC in a power system .................. 274
10.3.1. Calculation of the geoelectric field ........ 275
10.3.2. Calculation of GIC .......................... 277
10.4. GIC research in the Finnish high-voltage power
grid ................................................ 279
10.5. Conclusion .......................................... 283
10.6. Acknowledgements .................................... 284
10.7. References .......................................... 284
11. Space weather impacts on space radiation protection
(Rainer Facius and Günther Reitz) ......................... 289
11.1. Introduction ........................................ 289
11.2. Radiation fields .................................... 290
11.2.1. Primary fields .............................. 290
11.2.2. Magnetic and material shielding ............. 306
11.3. Radiation dosimetry ................................. 311
11.3.1. Measures of exposure ........................ 313
11.3.2. Relative biological effectiveness (RBE),
equivalent dose ............................. 313
11.3.3. Ionization density, LET ..................... 314
11.4. Radiation effects on man ............................ 314
11.4.1. Radiation weighting factors and quality
factors ..................................... 316
11.4.2. Tissue weighting factors .................... 317
11.4.3. Acute irradiation, early (deterministic)
effects ..................................... 318
11.4.4. Chronic irradiation, late (stochastic)
effects ..................................... 319
11.5. Radiation protection exposure limits ................ 319
11.5.1. Chronic exposures, late cancer mortality .... 320
11.5.2. Acute exposures, early (deterministic
effects) .................................... 321
11.6. Implications for manned spaceflight ................. 322
11.6.1. Approaches towards proper dosimetric
techniques .................................. 322
11.6.2. Exposures during LEO missions ............... 324
11.6.3. Exposures during interplanetary missions .... 330
11.6.4. Observed health effects ..................... 335
11.7. Implications for air crews .......................... 336
11.7.1. Exposures ................................... 336
11.7.2. Observed health effects ..................... 341
11.8. Space weather impacts on the biosphere .............. 341
11.9. Summary ............................................. 344
11.10.Conversions ......................................... 345
11.11.References .......................................... 345
12. Effects on spacecraft hardware and operations
(Alain Hilgers, Alexi Glover and Eamonn Daly) ............. 353
12.1. Introduction ........................................ 353
12.1.1. High-energy charged particles ............... 353
12.1.2. Plasmas ..................................... 356
12.1.3. Electromagnetic environment ................. 359
12.1.4. Atomic environment .......................... 359
12.1.5. Micro-particle environment .................. 360
12.1.6. Environment and effects: summary ............ 360
12.2. Dynamics and variability of the space environment ... 360
12.2.1. Space environment and solar-terrestrial
dynamics .................................... 360
12.2.2. Variability of the space environment ........ 361
12.3. Space environment monitoring for spacecraft ......... 364
12.3.1. Ground-based measurements ................... 366
12.3.2. Space-based measurements .................... 370
12.3.3. Near real-time monitoring data: summary ..... 373
12.3.4. Forecast, precursors and models ............. 373
12.3.5. Services .................................... 374
12.4. The future .......................................... 376
12.4.1. Data coverage ............................... 376
12.4.2. Long-term continuity of data provision ...... 377
12.4.3. Reliability of data provision ............... 377
12.4.4. Model accuracy .............................. 378
12.5. Conclusion .......................................... 378
12.6. Acknowledgements .................................... 379
12.7. References .......................................... 379
13. Effects on satellite navigation (Bertram Arbesser-
Rastburg and Norbert Jakowski) ............................ 383
13.1. Introduction ........................................ 383
13.2. Satellite-based navigation technique ................ 384
13.3. Use of GNSS techniques for space weather
monitoring .......................................... 386
13.3.1. Ground-based monitoring ..................... 386
13.3.2. Space-based monitoring ...................... 388
13.4. Space weather impact on the signal propagation
medium .............................................. 389
13.4.1. Solar control of ionospheric ionization ..... 389
13.4.2. Ionospheric storms .......................... 389
13.4.3. Small-scale irregularities in the
ionosphere .................................. 392
13.5. Space weather issues in specific navigation
and positioning techniques .......................... 394
13.5.1. Point positioning ........................... 395
13.5.2. Satellite-based augmentation systems ........ 396
13.5.3. Local augmentation systems .................. 397
13.6. Summary ............................................. 398
13.7. Acknowledgements .................................... 399
13.8. References .......................................... 400
14. Forecasting space weather (Dimitris Vassiliadis) .......... 403
14.1. Introduction ........................................ 403
14.1.1. Empirical and physical models: tracking
information versus energy ................... 405
14.1.2. Model predictions and forecasts ............. 407
14.1.3. Climatology and dynamics .................... 407
14.1.4. Input-output modelling ...................... 408
14.1.5. An historical note .......................... 408
14.2. Predictive model development: ring current
dynamics and the Dst index .......................... 409
14.3. Enhancing the model ................................. 410
14.3.1. Time dependence ............................. 410
14.3.2. Multi-input models and input ranking ........ 411
14.3.3. Feedback and non-linearity .................. 412
14.3.4. Higher dimensions ........................... 415
14.4. Data assimilation and Kaiman filtering .............. 416
14.4.1. The Kaiman filter ........................... 417
14.4.2. Parameter estimation in a radiation-belt
model ....................................... 418
14.4.3. onospheric data assimilation ............... 418
14.5. Model verification .................................. 419
14.6. Summary and outlook ................................. 421
14.6.1. Forecast providers .......................... 421
14.7. Acknowledgements .................................... 422
14.8. References .......................................... 422
Index ......................................................... 427
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