Contributors ................................................. xili
Foreword ..................................................... xvii
Acknowledgments ............................................... xxi
Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective ..................... xxiii
Part 1. National and Regional Flood Forecasting Systems ......... 1
1 Australian Bureau of Meteorology Flood Forecasting and
Warning ...................................................... 3
Т.C. Pagano, J.F. Elliott, B.G. Anderson, J.K. Perkins
1 Introduction .............................................. 3
2 Demographics, Climate, and Floods of Australia ............ 3
3 History of Flood Forecasting at the Bureau of
Meteorology .............................................. 10
4 Current Characteristics ofthe Bureau and Its Services .... 13
5 Operational Forecasting and Systems ...................... 18
6 Operational Challenges ................................... 32
7 Future Directions ........................................ 37
8 Summary .................................................. 38
Acknowledgments ............................................. 38
References .................................................. 39
2 Hydrological Forecasting Practices in Brazil ................ 41
F.M. Fan, R.C.D. Paiva, W. Collischonn
1 Introduction ............................................. 41
2 Geography, Climate, and Floods in Brazil ................. 41
3 General Overview of Hydrological Forecasts in Brazil ..... 43
4 Examples of Operational and Preoperational Forecasting
Systems .................................................. 46
5 Conclusions .............................................. 61
References .................................................. 63
3 The Development and Recent Advances of Flood Forecasting
Activities in China ......................................... 67
Z. Liu
1 Introduction ............................................. 67
2 Evolution of Flood Control and Management in China ....... 68
3 Development of Operational Hydrological Forecasting and
Prediction in China ...................................... 71
4. Conclusions and Outlook .................................. 85
References .................................................. 86
4 A Regional Perceptive of Flood Forecasting and Disaster
Management Systems for the Congo River Basin ................ 87
R.M. Tshimanga, J.M. Tshitenge, R Kabuya, D. Alsdorf,
G. Mahe, G. Klbukusa, V. Lukanda
1 Introduction ............................................. 87
2 Physiographic Setting and Physical Characteristics of
the Congo River Basin .................................... 89
3 Flood-Bearing Processes in the Congo River Basin ......... 92
4 Trends and Socio-Economic Impacts of Floods in the
Congo River Basin ....................................... 107
5 Current Status of Flood Forecasting and Disaster
Management Systems in the Congo River Basin ............. 111
6 Conclusion .............................................. 120
References ................................................. 121
5 Flood Forecasting in Germany - Challenges of a Federal
Structure and Transboundary Cooperation .................... 125
N. Demuth, S. Rademacher
1 Introduction ............................................ 125
2 International Cooperation—The Rhine Basin ............... 127
3 Measured Meteorological and Hydrological Data ........... 130
4 Numerical Weather Predictions ........................... 133
5 Snowmelt Forecasts ...................................... 136
6 Regional Organization and Transboundary Data Exchange ... 137
7 River Forecasting Models ................................ 138
8 Forecast Dissemination .................................. 145
9 Flood Partnerships ...................................... 147
10 Summary ................................................. 148
References ................................................. 148
6 Operational Flood Forecasting in Israel .................... 153
A. Givati, E. Fredj, M. Silver
1 Introduction ............................................ 153
2 Climate and Hydrological Characteristics of Israel ...... 154
3 The Flood Forecasting Modeling System in Israel ......... 156
4 Summary ................................................. 165
References ................................................. 165
7 Operational Hydrologic Forecast System in Russia ........... 169
S. Borsch, Y. Simonov
1 Introduction ............................................ 169
2 Hydrological Practices in Russia ........................ 170
3 The Hydrologic Forecasting System of the Roshydromet .... 171
4 Hydrometeorological Data ................................ 173
5 Long-Range Spring Flood Predictions ..................... 176
6 Early Warning Flood Forecasting Systems ................. 177
7 Conclusions ............................................. 181
References ................................................. 181
8 Increasing Early Warning Lead Time Through Improved
Transboundary Flood Forecasting in the Gash River Basin,
Horn of Africa ............................................. 183
G. Amarnath, N. Alahacoon, Y. Gismalla, Y. Mohammed,
B.R. Sharma, V. Smakhtin
1 Introduction ............................................ 183
2 Building a Flood Forecast and Early Warning System ...... 184
3 Geographical Setting of the Gash River Basin ............ 187
4 The Modeling Approach ................................... 189
5 Results and Discussion .................................. 195
6 Conclusion .............................................. 197
Acknowledgments ............................................ 198
References ................................................. 198
9 Flood Forecasting - A National Overview for Great Britain .. 201
C. Pilling, V. Dodds, M. Cranston, D. Price, T. Harrison,
A. How
1 Background and Catalysts for Change ..................... 201
2 Countrywide Flood Forecasting Modeling Approach ......... 211
3 Forecast Dissemination Protocols and Products ........... 229
4 Measuring Performance of the Flood Forecasting and
Warning Service ......................................... 233
5 Future Forecasting Challenges ........................... 238
Disclaimer ................................................. 244
Dedication ................................................. 244
References ................................................. 244
10 Flood Forecasting in the United States NOAA/National
Weather Service ............................................ 249
Т.Е. Adams III
1 Introduction ............................................ 249
2 History ................................................. 251
3 A Brief History of Models and Modeling Systenns Used
by the NWS .............................................. 254
4 Current Models and Modeling System ...................... 274
5 Current Operations ...................................... 281
6 Additional Topics ....................................... 301
7 Future Developments ..................................... 303
References ................................................. 307
Part 2. Continental Modeling and Monitoring—The Future? ....... 311
11 On the Operational Implementation of the European Flood
Awareness System (EFAS) .................................... 313
P.J. Smith, F. Pappenberger, F. Wetterhall, J. Thielen
del Pozo, B. Krzeminski, P. Salamon, D. Muraro,
M. Kalas, C. Baugh
1 Introduction ............................................ 313
2 EFAS Structure .......................................... 317
3 Data Acquisition ........................................ 318
4 Model Components ........................................ 320
5 Generating Forecasts .................................... 325
6 Forecast Products ....................................... 327
7 Forecast Dissemination .................................. 332
8 Operational Performance ................................. 335
9 Case Studies ............................................ 337
10 Conclusions ............................................. 342
Acknowledgments ............................................ 344
References ................................................. 344
12 Developing Flood Forecasting Capabilities in Colombia
(South America) ............................................ 349
M. Werner, J.C. Loaiza, M.C. Rosero Mesa, M. Faneca
Sànchez, O. de Keizer, M.C. Sandoval
1 Introduction ............................................ 349
2 Physiography and Demographics ........................... 351
3 Developnnent of a Pilot for the National Hydrological
Forecasting System ...................................... 353
4 Design and Setup ofthe National Hydrological
Forecasting System ...................................... 355
5 Expansion ofthe Pilot System ............................ 362
6 Discussion and Outlook .................................. 365
References ................................................. 366
Part 3. Challenges Facing Flood Forecasting ................... 369
13 Streamflow Data ............................................ 371
G.J. Wiche, R.R. Holmes Jr.
1 Introduction ............................................ 371
2 History of Streamgaging in the United States ............ 373
3 Streamflow Collection and Computation ................... 376
4 Delivery of Streamflow Information ...................... 388
5 Opportunities for the Streamgage Program ................ 391
References ................................................. 395
14 A Simple Streamflow Forecasting Scheme for the Ganges
Basin ...................................................... 399
Y. Jiang, W. Palash, A.S. Akanda, D.L. Small, S. Islam
1 Introduction ............................................ 399
2 The Ganges Floods and Rainfall-Runoff Relationships ..... 407
3 A Simple Q-Q and Q+P-Q Model for the Ganges ............. 410
4 Results ................................................. 411
5 Discussion .............................................. 417
Acknowledgment ............................................. 419
References ................................................. 419
Index ......................................................... 421
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