 | Terekhov I. Forecasting air passenger demand between settlements worldwide based on socio-economic scenarios: Diss. ... Dr.-Ing. / Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Lufttransportsysteme, Hamburg. - Köln: DLR, 2017. - xvi, 185 p.: ill., tab. - (Forschungsbericht; 2017-37). - Res. also Germ. - Bibliogr.: p. 145-153. - ISSN 1434-8454
Шифр: (Pr 1120/2017-37) 02
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Summary ......................................................... v
Table of contents ............................................. vii
List of figures ................................................. x
List of tables ............................................... xiii
Abbreviations .................................................. xv
1 Introduction ............................................... 1
2 Literature review .......................................... 9
2.1 Industry forecasts ......................................... 9
2.2 Academic studies .......................................... 11
2.3 Conclusion ................................................ 15
3 Research objectives ....................................... 17
3.1 Key research objective .................................... 17
3.2 Research methodology ...................................... 19
4 APD forecasting methodology ............................... 21
4.1 Modeling framework ........................................ 21
4.2 Description of sub-models ................................. 23
4.2.1 Inputs into the APD model .......................... 23
4.2.2 Clustering ......................................... 24
4.2.3 Topology forecasting model ......................... 26
4.2.4 Passenger forecasting model ........................ 28
4.3 Conclusion ................................................ 31
5 APD forecasting model development and validation .......... 33
5.1 Clustering ................................................ 37
5.1.1 Clustering methods ................................. 38
5.1.2 Normal mixture clustering application .............. 41
5.1.3 Conclusion ......................................... 45
5.2 Topology forecasting model ................................ 46
5.2.1 Weighted local similarity index identification ..... 48
5.2.2 Analysis and verification of the similarity based
algorithm using WRA ................................ 55
5.2.3 Boundaries for addition and elimination
connections processes .............................. 61
5.2.4 Conclusion ......................................... 64
5.3 Passenger forecasting model ............................... 65
5.3.1 Quantitative analogies approach validation for
the newly added connections ........................ 67
5.3.2 Validation of the APD correlation with GDP for
remaining connections .............................. 79
5.3.3 Conclusion ......................................... 88
5.4 Overall model accuracy and error propagation analysis ..... 89
5.5 Conclusion ................................................ 95
6 APD model application ..................................... 99
6.1 Simple airfare model ..................................... 100
6.2 APD modeling for GEO-4 scenarios ......................... 104
6.3 GEO-4 scenario results ................................... 110
6.4 Consolidated summary of scenario results and
verification ............................................. 120
6.5 APD analysis at settlement level for China ............... 128
6.6 Conclusion ............................................... 136
7 Conclusion ................................................. 139
8 Recommendations for future research ........................ 143
9 References ................................................. 145
Appendix A .................................................... 154
Appendix В .................................................... 170
Appendix C .................................................... 175
Appendix D .................................................... 179
Lebenslauf .................................................... 185
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